• Content Count

  • Joined

  • Last visited

About WeatherNC

  • Rank
    warm noses served piping hot
  • Birthday 09/28/1980

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
  • Gender
  • Location:
    Greenville, NC
  • Interests

Recent Profile Visitors

The recent visitors block is disabled and is not being shown to other users.

  1. Mesoscale Discussion 1586 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020 Areas affected...much of Louisiana...far eastern Texas and southwest Mississippi Concerning...Tornado Watch 452... Valid 270047Z - 270245Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 452 continues. SUMMARY...Shear will continue to increase with the approach of Hurricane Laura, with sporadic tornadoes possible within developing bands of storms through tonight. The greatest tornado risk will exist within the northeastern quadrant of the storm, primarily over Louisiana. As such, a new tornado watch will be needed. DISCUSSION...Objective analysis shows gradually increasing low-level shear over the area, with 0-1 SRH of 300-400 m2/s2 across southwest Louisiana early this evening. Shear will increase overnight as Hurricane Laura continues northward toward coastal Louisiana and Texas. Low-level moisture quality will also increase near and east of the center track, with dewpoints at or above 77 F. This should result in favorable SBCAPE for supercells embedded within the rain bands, with 0-1 SRH over 500 m2/s2 aiding tornado potential. ..Jewell.. 08/27/2020 ...Please see for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX... LAT...LON 29419344 29549419 29929446 30899443 31719432 32069404 32189368 32239336 32149282 31959231 30629110 30089079 29529069 29089084 28979111 28999167 29419344
  2. Around 5.5hrs till landfall based on forward speed of 15mph, Holly Beach, just west of Cameron. Very close to worst case scenario for Lake Charles.
  3. KLTX overshoots tops to the south for whatever reason but still impressive.
  4. I'm in Birmingham this week and next for work, not a big SVR guy, prefer heavy snow, but somewhat concerned and at he same time a little pumped for what may be my 2nd time ever in a Day 1 High risk. The Boran model posted earlier is a private model from my understanding, based on the WRF and around a 2km res through 60hrs. The precip plots from the ECMWF strongly indicates discrete and long tracked cells.
  6. High res precip, widespread 2 to 3 tenths with locally more.
  7. Look at your 500mb vorticity evolution preferably on a site like Nexlab where you can slide the panels back and forth. There’s an 850 too, would like to see it more tucked in to the coast which means H5 needs to sharper and tune a little sooner.
  8. First run I have seen with some snow in NE NC through 57hrs, ~1” using Kuchera and 2” on stock 10:1.
  9. Watch us get the coastal but miss out on boundary layer temps. I just don’t see how it will be cold enough for anything but rain, height falls in whatever semblance of a conveyer are not sharp enough.
  10. More the lack of run to run continuity with the ops and ensemble support 7 days out, while in no way unusual lets still be real, it's a unicorn at this very early stage.