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Waiting on snow

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About Waiting on snow

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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    Boiling Springs SC

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  1. Waiting on snow

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    Give this guy a follow. I'd put him against anyone. He never charges for his forecasts but all donations are greatly appreciated to help him give us the best possible info.
  2. Waiting on snow

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    That's exactly my point. There isn't anyone that can do it. My only problem is people paying for forecasts that are really just an educated guess. I know people put in a lot of time and money into this. I respect that. But in my opinion there are other ways to get people to donate to your cause than outrageous headlines. And I think we know most are guilty of that at some point. I read his forecasts. Along with JB and DT and everyone else. But usually the outcome is somewhere in the middle of the conservative tv Mets and the extreme solutions put out by a few.
  3. Waiting on snow

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    I apologize for ruffling feathers. But the way JB gets bashed on this board and that guy gets a free pass because he used to post here confused me. I can't speak for what he was like years ago, but I've read his stuff for the last few years and his record isn't that good from what I see.
  4. Waiting on snow

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    I didn't say he wasn't good. Long range weather forecasting is nowhere close to being accurate and to hype it to get paying subscribers who don't know better is not right.
  5. Waiting on snow

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    Of course he is. He has to get paid subscribers. He seems to be a favorite here in the south but he uses up more diapers than Joe Bustardi in the winter! But eventually he has to be right, right?
  6. Waiting on snow

    Hurricane Michael

    Because they don't base their forecast on a deterministic run of the Euro.
  7. Waiting on snow

    Searching for Fall

    Interesting to see 4 of the last 5 Januaries below normal. Decembers have absolutely torched lately and Feb is hit or miss. Definitely a disturbing trend the data shows. Winters definitely starting late every year and most ending early too. Most of the se except one or two locations did very well on snow last year. But it was really only the first two weeks of Dec and the first two in Jan and then winter vanished. That's why I'm very skeptical of the forecasts of below average for the winter as a whole this year. Unless blocking finally decides to appear the 4 weeks of winter we do get better be record breaking to erase the other 8 weeks of warmth.
  8. Waiting on snow

    Searching for Fall

    I'd be curious out of those 105 months how many were actually below normal? I'm guessing not many.
  9. Waiting on snow

    Searching for Fall

    Exactly! Sure it snows. It still gets extremely cold. And those events are usually all anyone remembers. They forget that 2/3rds of the same winter was breaking heat records. The trend is undeniable and that's up and up!
  10. Waiting on snow

    Searching for Fall

    I agree. And honestly the snowpack buildup is good. But we have to get rid of the ridge first to get the cold here. I know it won't last forever. But at the same time a pattern flip to zonal for 2 weeks and that snowcover is history and we're starting over. The Siberian snow theory has failed miserably the last few years. High soil moisture sure hasn't kept this ridge away. Just extremely frustrating to keep smashing heat records year after year and want the opposite!
  11. Waiting on snow

    Searching for Fall

    I try to keep my expectations low around here. I'm a firm believer that if you want cold and snow in the se you need a -NAO. Sure it snows without it just as much as with it. But as far as sustained cold and multiple snow chances it's a must. I wish we could forecast that tele better. Regardless of the QBO, enso, sea surface temps, SSW, SAI it's managed to be positive for the better part of a decade. Why should I be optimistic about this year?
  12. Waiting on snow

    Searching for Fall

    Yeah but, me and you both know that's not going to happen. Welcome to the new normal for the se. Our good ole friend the se ridge has became a permanent fixture for the better part of a decade.
  13. Waiting on snow

    Searching for Fall

    Can't see any reason why it won't continue. Above average is the only certainty anymore. Especially the southeast. Sure, there are a couple months here and there every few years below normal. But not many. Regardless of the analogs and outlooks I'd put money met winter as a whole is above average here.
  14. Waiting on snow

    Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

    Rare yes. But it's not uncommon for hurricanes to do loops off the ec. Most of the time it's just way off shore. My guess is models see a weakness in the ridge to bring it nw and as the trough deepens out west it strengthens the ridge and pulls it back.
  15. Waiting on snow

    Hurricane Florence

    The Icon and GFS have it 6 days out! Lock it down I'm headed for MHX!!!