Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th

[jconsor]

2 hours ago, Nibor said:

Last night when the AI euro shifted west I thought it was a good sign that the other western guidance wasn't complete bs. Still, it would add confidence if the Euro Op showed something closer to the GFS or the CMC.

If I'm not mistaken the AI euro is better past 5 days but they get fairly close in scoring within 5. @donsutherland1 probably has better data on that.

This article speaks more about skill of AI models in medium range (beyond day 5), but I believe same applies in the 3-4 day range - AIFS ensemble has superior skill to EPS and other physics-based ensembles.  AI-GEFS has superior skill to GEFS but isn't as skillful as AIFS ensemble.

https://x.com/Brady_Wx/status/2021333729088585882

Given that GEFS and GEPS are closer than the EPS to AIFS ensemble (as well as AI-GEFS) in terms of more amplified trough initially over Ohio Valley/Great Lakes with more downstream ridging, and deeper upper low closer to the mid-Atlantic coast, I would weight them more than EPS in this setup. All models shifted in that direction (when compared to yesterday's 0z run) after ingesting a new batch of upper air data from recon.

It appears to me that the EPS under-amplification bias may be at play here and it is most likely playing catch-up here, like the AI summary that Sacrus posted intimated happens sometimes in NE US winter storms.

[Wxbear25]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

it's going to ride up eventually and tuck. Look out westchester and putnam that'll be the bullseye in my opinion! Euro will come in eventually by the time the storm starts because it's the worst model

I think a whiff is far more likely than that occurring

Unlike other changes that could happen,  that would require a pretty significant change in the way things are situated

[nycsnow]

Hope the euro trends to this just so all the euro huggers are speechless 

[WeatherGeek2025]

If GFS is right which it will ;

snow starts Sunday around 1PM, ends Monday around 6PM that's a blizzy!

[nycsnow]

AIGFS west

[WeatherGeek2025]

CMC next looks like crap but still early in the run!

[mob1]

Canadian looks pretty crappy

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, mob1 said:

Canadian looks pretty crappy

the run isn't even done

[EastonSN+]

Lost the CMC.

[EasternLI]

1 minute ago, nycsnow said:

AIGFS west

[Wxbear25]

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

CMC next looks like crap but still early in the run!

No, it’s definitely not good as is. At the very least it’s far from the GFS, closer to the EURO

[jconsor]

8 minutes ago, jconsor said:

This article speaks more about skill of AI models in medium range (beyond day 5), but I believe same applies in the 3-4 day range - AIFS ensemble has superior skill to EPS and other physics-based ensembles.  AI-GEFS has superior skill to GEFS but isn't as skillful as AIFS ensemble.

https://x.com/Brady_Wx/status/2021333729088585882

Given that GEFS and GEPS are closer than the EPS to AIFS ensemble (as well as AI-GEFS) in terms of more amplified trough initially over Ohio Valley/Great Lakes with more downstream ridging, and deeper upper low closer to the mid-Atlantic coast, I would weight them more than EPS in this setup. All models shifted in that direction (when compared to yesterday's 0z run) after ingesting a new batch of upper air data from recon.

It appears to me that the EPS under-amplification bias may be at play here and it is most likely playing catch-up here, like the AI summary that Sacrus posted intimated happens sometimes in NE US winter storms.

All that said, I think the best potential for a significant event e.g. 6"+ is from the Delmarva to southern and coastal NJ, and especially from eastern LI to southeast New England.

 

As others have mentioned, given the upper level setup and strong indications of bombogenesis, as well as enhanced baroclinicity with anomalous cold SST near the mid-Atlantic coast butting up against above normal SST along the Gulf Stream, this storm needs to be carefully monitored.  A small change in synoptics opens up the potential for a much more impactful storm, especially from coastal NJ to LI, but possibly a little further NW as well e.g. NYC, southern CT.

[Nibor]

At 500 mb CMC looks similar to the 6z Euro.

[kat5hurricane]

24 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

Never said that the Euro was infallible and in fact I emphasized that point in my posts but the odds are when the highest scoring model doesn't buy a solution for many cycles odds are in its favor and it's just my own instinct from being a weather junkie for decades that the Euro is more often a leader than the GFS. I'd bet anything that we see the GFS start to cave starting now and if not then likely by 0z. 

Ok so 0z it is lol @Wxbear25 The GFS has been consistent with this solution, I'll give it that much, but unless we see other models converge on anything close to this it's hard to take seriously.

[WeatherGeek2025]

cmc is garbage for us oh well

[EastonSN+]

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

cmc is garbage for us oh well

If that inverted trough gets over us thats a moderate snowfall.

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Canadian looks pretty crappy

Yep trended east

[EastonSN+]

Keep trending east and get that trough over us!!

[nycsnow]

Ready for spring. Done with this overhyped dry and cold winter once this misses 

[SACRUS]

2/10 12z Summary

Total QPF:

ICON:

[SACRUS]

 

GFS AI AIGFS Total QPF:

[SACRUS]

 

GFS

[SACRUS]

 

GGEM:

[Wxbear25]

4 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

Ok so 0z it is lol @Wxbear25 The GFS has been consistent with this solution, I'll give it that much, but unless we see other models converge on anything close to this it's hard to take seriously 

Again, I think the GFS’s solution is not the most likely scenario by a longshot

im not even against people saying they don’t believe it will happen, because despite the fact I WANT it to happen, i think it’s more likely to whiff than be a GFS-type super-bomb for our area

When I say pessimism, I’m not referring to reasoned takes saying “it’s probably not going to happen”, it’s takes stating the definitive “it’s over”

it’s the opposite of WG, and both extremes are obnoxious lol

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, SACRUS said:

 

GGEM:

We want this EAST if the low won't tuck. 

[MarcmmKU]

55 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Wow steve D will be right again

It's not that hard. Ridge axis is wrong and there's not enough separation between this and the friday system. OTS. Not a hard setup.

[Poker2015]

15 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

If GFS is right which it will ;

snow starts Sunday around 1PM, ends Monday around 6PM that's a blizzy!

30 hours to get a foot of snow? Not impressive at all.

[MarcmmKU]

47 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Said it a million times but people hear what they want to hear.  We've rarely if ever had a SECS/MECS w/o Euro being on board at this time range.

In fact we've never had a high impact storm with 0 euro hits this close. 

[jm1220]

Yep, if this misses-onto spring. I’m done with the teases, minor events gone in a day and black ice piles in the parking lots. 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, MarcmmKU said:

It's not that hard. Ridge axis is wrong and there's not enough separation between this and the friday system. OTS. Not a hard setup.

Actually it is. Too many pieces flying.

Gefs coming in more amped