Is we back? February discussion thread

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

12z EPS slightly south for Wednesday compared to 6z 

For you or for SNE? We don’t need a 33 rainer 

[ineedsnow]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

For you or for SNE? We don’t need a 33 rainer 

here but some EPS members are good for even you... 

also some monster hits for Monday

[40/70 Benchmark]

56 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said:

Seen lots of “tenor” talk this year being used to project colder outcomes. Yes I think there is some credence to this year having a distinct trend of modeled ridging regimes getting muted, we’ve seen some gnarly looking torches (early January for example) get cut down into brief thaws and or mixed events. However, there is an additional “tenor” to this season that will likely lead to some SNE disappointment mid-to-late next week: overmodeled blocking and confluence in the medium range.

We saw this on the 12/26-27 event, in which confluence remained strong but trended rapidly away from complete suppression in the final 36 hours until flakes started. We also saw blocking relax substantially from medium range projections for the mega-SWFE in January. In both of these cases, the majority of this forum’s SNE contingent benefitted.

Even the colder storm during the muted warmup on 1/10-1/11 saw a bit of southerly pushing against confluence. The double barreled low pressure, which was destined to cut without high latitude help, pushed farther north in short range modeling. Despite salvaging the potential cutter 4-5 days out from verification, there was a slight boomeranging that occurred in the final 24-36 hours where confluence relaxed a bit.  Thus substantial mixing was introduced into CNE and NNE regions that were previously supposed to remain frozen.

It’s possible the midrange blocking relaxing slightly into the short range occurs again, the “tenor” of high amplitude blocks seem to be overmodeled this year. Of course, the implications are that warmth lifts farther north. NNE and CNE seem like a much better spot to be in right now for next week, despite some operational models (GFS) keeping them dry on the initial wave.

Trends from that mid January PT regime are probably most pertinent here.

[ineedsnow]

Big signal for Monday..  half inch plus mean for 8 days out

 

[ineedsnow]

qpf will not be a issue the next couple weeks

 

[ineedsnow]

these are usually a little weenieish but take it FWIW

[dendrite]

Go big or go home

[metagraphica]

Drought buster for Maine:

  

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

these are usually a little weenieish but take it FWIW

Approaching 30" is just a "little" over doing it so you'd be willing to trim that back, huh 

haha    lord

[Typhoon Tip]

I don't have a problem with Euro's cyclone bombing on the 23rd because it doesn't actually hit anyone.  

That's the other tenor of the season.   Anti-coastal coagulant 

[RDRY]

First day of melting in the Berks since the big storm.

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't have a problem with Euro's cyclone bombing on the 23rd because it doesn't actually hit anyone.  

That's the other tenor of the season.   Anti-coastal coagulant 

 

[CoastalWx]

Looks like Tanning in Tolland today. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

Now this looks like a spring storm.  Rain to central Quebec, but  "Creating its own cold air" down here, lol,....everyone's favorite.

[CT Valley Snowman]

Approaching 40 here.  Melting continues, especially in sunny, south facing, urban and highway areas. 

[Ginx snewx]

Over? Jumped up

[WxWatcher007]

So you know how they say no ice is completely safe? Yeah, had my foot fall through something out in the middle of the lake. Great shots though. 

 

[ORH_wxman]

14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Over? Jumped up

EPS is sneaky decent for Saturday too. Pretty snowy for SNE and CNE on that one. 

[mahk_webstah]

Wpc latest has 1.25 qpf probably all or mostly snow for here.  Probably same for s tv and nw mass.  This is thru 0z 23rd.  More to come I’d think.

[Typhoon Tip]

I've noticed that since these late Feb aspects have begun to emerge ... the GFS heredity of products overall are less shy about committing to spring.  

The Euro is trying to sell eternal storm and cold.   

The index/numerics of either ensemble means don't statistically support what the operational Euros have been trying to sell.  Just cautioning folks... prepare to be disappointed.  The upshot?  if you are not, then there was no risk.   

it's possible the GFS is too warm, but... it has March and improving sun and CC and what have you backing the indexes, all of which suggesting otherwise. 

[Ginx snewx]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS is sneaky decent for Saturday too. Pretty snowy for SNE and CNE on that one. 

There are some huge numbers i counted 23 eps members with over a foot By the 24th and the 20 plus club oh my.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

i've noticed that since these late Feb aspects have begun to emerge ... the GFS heredity of products overall are less shy about committing to spring.  

The Euro is trying to sell eternal storm and cold.   It's own ensembles don't statistically support what the operational run's have been trying to do.  Just caution folks... prepare to be disappointed.  The upshot?  if you are not, then there was no risk.   

Guess you have not seen the EPS.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

There are some huge numbers i counted 23 eps members with over a foot By the 24th and the 20 plus club oh my.

About a third give you 17”+ not too shabby .. I hope we either go spring or just go all on snow onslaught 

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

About a third give you 17”+ not too shabby .. I hope we either go spring or just go all on snow onslaught 

4 shots 

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Guess you have not seen the EPS.

I have...   By Euro I had 'Euro product suite' in mind.

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

About a third give you 17”+ not too shabby .. I hope we either go spring or just go all on snow onslaught 

Even almost a quarter give ORH 20”+. Definitely the most aggressive in a while. 
 

Lot of ways for it to screw up but the benefit of having like 3-4 different waves is you also have a decent chance of one or two of them working out. 

[CoastalWx]

Kind of funny AI is suppressed mid week and euro legacy models are congrats Dendrite.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Kind of funny AI is suppressed mid week and euro legacy models are congrats Dendrite.

Let’s split the difference. 

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Let’s split the difference. 

Don't know but I would hit EURO SKYNET all day 

[ORH_wxman]

The system that improved the most today on both EPS and Euro Skynet was Friday night/early Saturday. Doesn’t get shredded as much but also pretty cold too. 
 

Monday still has the most upside imho, but Friday night could end up pretty good too if we trend it like today. Monday definitely got some more support too today. But being 8 days out makes it less meaningful when you see a model shift.