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Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow Sunday 1/25 - Tuesday 1/27

TriPol

By TriPol,
in New York City Metro

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Jt17

Jt17

Posted
Posted
100% agree - not even worth worrying about. I’m just looking at QPF - easier for forecasting and consistency. 

It's going to be 15-20 degrees colder than pretty much any snow event we've had this year. It's worth contemplating.


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CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow

For the first time in my life I'm praying for a south trend. 

Mo Snow
Mo Snow

Been reading these forums for over 10 years but never posted. Found this account today I made back in 2014 and logged in. This is my first post on it haha.  Excited for this storm!

Krs4Lfe
Krs4Lfe

I think the big events died with the 2021 winter. Always seems to be cutter, suppression; southern slider etc. no reason to think this will be any different 

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BoulderWX

BoulderWX

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Jt17 said:


It's going to be 15-20 degrees colder than pretty much any snow event we've had this year. It's worth contemplating.


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Feel free to apply whatever ratio you think - I’m not debating anyone - just going with what has worked well for me over the last 20 years. many posters have given detailed explanations about several other factors that go into ratios, temperature is only one component. 

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WeatherGeek2025

WeatherGeek2025

Posted
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Just now, BoulderWX said:

Feel free to apply whatever ratio you think - I’m not debating anyone - just going with what has worked well for me over the last 20 years. many posters have given detailed explanations about several other factors that go into ratios, temperature is only one component. 

i think 15:1 sounds reasonable for the overrunning, if the coastal takes over than those will probably drop to around 12:1 or so! so figure 0.80 liquid on average 12-14 inches

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hooralph

hooralph

Posted
Posted

2003 was traumatic for me (in Boston). We planned a PD weekend getaway to Montreal area and I tracked the huge mid-atlantic storm for a week sad I was going to miss the 6-12" fringe targeting SNE. It was only Friday when it became apparent what was going to happen. You know the rest. We sat in Quebec under -20 temps while Boston broke the '78 snowfall record.

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MANDA

MANDA

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

EPS made the same shift towards more phasing and now has 0.75" liquid to NYC

ezgif-7ac8de27e003a938.gif.8b1a8cb281cd4b2c7551dc53d7593024.gif

Gotta like that look.  Just need to keep it or improve on it.  If we can keep these 18Z trends going at 00Z and then 12Z tomorrow that would be great....at least on the EURO, GGEM and UKMET.  If the GFS comes to the party and stays so much the better.

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CPcantmeasuresnow

CPcantmeasuresnow

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

What a nasty ice storm setup stretching from TX to the Carolinas. Some of those maps, if they verified would be crippling. 

Give me plain rain or cold/dry over ZR any day 

No one likes a lot of freezing rain. Give me .005to .10 of an inch after a big snowfall, It looks fantastic. Anything more just destructive and no need for it. 

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

Posted
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I am half expecting next 24-48 hour model trends to be towards greater coastal development, lower central pressures for the coastal low and a consequent beefing up of QPF over NJ, PA, NY and s NE. There is a fairly robust energy peak around Jan 26-27 so the slower this evolution develops, the better the results. 

Current record snowfalls on 25th and 26th of January are 10.0" from 1905 (an 11.0" 2d event) and 12.3" from 2011 (a 20" 3d event). There could be a run on one or even both of those depending on timing. 

It is very difficult to break record low mins in this urban heat island situation but easier to match record low max, those are in the 12-14 F range around Sunday-Monday. I think Saturday may be very cold all day but it has less chance because the date record for Jan 24th (6F 1882) is also the monthly lowest value for low max. Oddly, December and February both have lower values (2F 1917 and 4F 1918). There has not been a sub-10F max at NYC since Jan 21, 1985 set a record of 9F. There was a 10F reading in Jan 1994, and 13F in Jan 2018. 

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mgerb

mgerb

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

No idea but he said earlier the storm wasn't going to come north

He's a met. Also, someone claimed he said that. Should probably get a quote about exactly what he did or didn't say. It might not have been so cut and dry (or maybe it was!). 

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Krs4Lfe

Krs4Lfe

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

No idea but he said earlier the storm wasn't going to come north

He's a climatologist and meteorologist, works at a lab over in New Mexico somewhere. He's pretty good at the pattern recognition and climatology stuff. But he also said the weekend storm wouldn't trend west either. So he has his moments 

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ineedsnow

ineedsnow

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, mgerb said:

He's a met. Also, someone claimed he said that. Should probably get a quote about exactly what he did or didn't say. It might not have been so cut and dry (or maybe it was!). 

check out his latest post.. lots of people pretty upset :lol:

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, mgerb said:

He's a met. Also, someone claimed he said that. Should probably get a quote about exactly what he did or didn't say. It might not have been so cut and dry (or maybe it was!). 

Here's what I found upon looking. It seems there was a bit more to his reasoning than was perhaps implied. Having said that, I believe that there is still enough uncertainty associated with the lead time for a more phased/northward solution. 

image.png.ad6b81ca6b732fa0569c66bc0e742087.png

image.png.c6ba378fd1d0e0f37e0e82cadab19ad9.png

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MANDA

MANDA

Posted
Posted

A note about the EURO.  It has been trying to pop a surface low south of L.I. on the last few runs at some point Monday.  That is what keeps the precipitation going thus adding to the QPF forecast totals.  That is kind of a wildcard in my opinion.  If it happens, where it happens and how strong it gets.  Something to watch on future runs.

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RU848789

RU848789

Posted
Posted

While this is the NYC subforum, it's worth noting that there is likely going to be a crippling ice storm with 1" or more of ice accretion in a fairly wide swath from Texas to NC on Saturday into Sunday – where exactly that sets up is not a given yet – and north of the ice storm, 8-12” snowfall amounts are looking likely from northern Texas to northern TN/NC and into VA. This could be an historic US winter storm if the current models verify: see the nationwide snowfall and ice accretion graphics from the NBM model...

rFojVc8.png

 

wY10xdb.png

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