Krs4Lfe

Yeah NYC Is at a D so far. Only 1/3rd of seasonal snowfall as the best snow bands continue to miss us in all these events. F winter until today. Maybe we can make it up to C category ? (That would be 20”, similar to 2022 winter). B winter would be average (27-30” inches, won’t happen this season but that’s what a B would be)

3.5 inches on tabletops in madison square park, report just came from Tomer Burg on twitter. If that park can get over 3", so can Central Park.

We still have a long way to go here in NYC to reach 2022 level. That January 2022 blizzard allowed for an 18-22” season total across NYC. We still have about 10” to go over here until we reach that amount.

Yeah so 2 inches at Central Park, and I believe they were at 6” before this storm. So we’ve beaten 1998,2002,2012,2020,2023 (which were all ratters. This one is a ratter too until we hit 10” which might not be likely at Centeal park this season). Many spotters reporting 3.5” in Central Park, don’t know why the measuring site is always so low (clearly they dont measure without compaction) I’ve hit 11” for the season here in Bayside.

In between 3.5 and 4” here in Bayside Queens. Still coming down a bit, should end very soon. Will Central Park crack 3?

Yeah it looks like that northern band really died off and most radar returns continue to be virga. Makes sense with a southern band taking up most of the energy and dumping the southern zones. Kind lf like what Tomer was saying.

Tomer Burg says the northern band of snow is dying out as the southern band takes control and strengthens, which would lead to a dry slot north of Trenton. Concerning if it happens.

That being said, it doesn't fully explain how Central US became void of snow and cold this winter. It truly is incredible to see, but while December is usually not snowy for this region, December is quite snowy for Central US, and helps establish a critical snowpack. That did not happen this year, and we lost critical time, which was further damaged by a Pac extension during peak climo (early-mid Feb), which led to another torch over the Central region.

I would argue that the lack of snow across CONUS is not only due to warm Canada and warm north US, rather the fact that a fast PAC has also led to a lack of blocking in the north Atlantic, which is how the January systems moved out to sea, and the storm on Tuesday was such a quick mover. Slower movers would have allowed for slower storms with more snow, and for there to be less of a suppression risk like what happened in late Jan and early Feb. Lack of atlantic blocking led to OTS systems, or snowstorms that moved too quickly. That alone would have led to increased snow coverage and colder weather (snow begets snow), and would have led to less rainstorms over the region.

Agreed, this was reminiscent of the 2016 strong El Niño, and other strong El Niños of the past. But this wasn’t a strong El Niño. So why was it so warm? Troubling for sure. Maybe due to the December pac jet extension, which torched December, not allowing snowcover and cold to be established. Same thing happened in early to mid Feb. 2 critical timeframes that we lost due to pac torch. Could that be the reason why ?

Ryan Maue posted some maps showing the extent of the warmth across the nation from the pattern flip around March 1st. The EPS and GEFS are the most bullish on this, with temperatures around +8 for the NYC area. GEPS is least bullish, with temperatures around neutral. That being said, all of them indicate a colder than normal (generally -5 to -10) across the west, including UT/NV/ID, and of course the west coast. Should lead to some good snows over there.

Ouch. You tend to be one of the most optimistic on this board. I guess we'll have the next 10 days or so to try to squeeze something in. A flareup of the SE ridge is how we become very warm here (early Jan 2023, mid Jan 2020, Feb 2018, Feb 2017, Dec 2014). That would really be the icing on the cake if that happens in early March.

Its interesting to note that while the weeklies and almost all model guidance has pulled the rug on any sort of wintry weather/ cold temps by around March 1st or so, there appears to be some sort of return to western ridging and eastern trough around mid March. Of course, that is 1 month away, and we would have to endure a Pac jet extension and flareup of the SE ridge. There are too many problems between end of February and mid-March, but at the very least, I suppose it would prevent March from being totally a spring month.

Its interesting to note that while the weeklies and almost all model guidance has pulled the rug on any sort of wintry weather/ cold temps by around March 1st or so, there appears to be some sort of return to western ridging and eastern trough around mid March. Of course, that is 1 month away, and we would have to endure a Pac jet extension and flareup of the SE ridge. There are too many problems between end of February and mid-March, but at the very least, I suppose it would prevent March from being totally a spring month.

Verbatim, that looks like a good pattern. Ideally you would want that western ridge to be further east towards ID, which would prevent low pressure from moving too far inland. Unfortunately, due to lack of cold and snow cover, which will only be even less sustained at that point, it's highly likely that this would lead to just cold rainstorms for the region.

@brooklynwx99Your thoughts about the pattern over the next few weeks? How did we lose this pattern so fast?

Considering that there is no background cold or high pressure confluence in southeast Canada to prevent systems from cutting, I would argue yes. And every passing day, the average temperature becomes warmer and it’s harder to snow. With no cold air in the mix and minimal snowpack, it becomes even harder. What’s worse is that high latitude blocking has all but disappeared from guidance, indicating a very warm March coming. I think it’s safe to say this is it for the season. Sometimes the easiest path is the right path, and for this winter, persistence forecasting was key.

I said this in the other forum, but I think it’s working stating here as well. Some things that astonish me, and yes I know, I’ve said them before, but I can’t help but repeat them now. 1. a quick pattern regression after Feb 25th or so, into one that is consistent with a western trough and eastern ridge, which would provide west US with ample opportunity for both winter weather and severe storms (this is a complete shift from the projected pattern for the same period that has been showing up the past few weeks) 2. If any winter could be dubbed “the year without a winter” it would be this one. Only twelve named winter Storms from the weather channel up until this point. And for all those who will say it’s unscientific to name winter storms (I agree on some level), lake ice extent is at a record low, temperature anomalies are near a record high for the northern tier, and almost the whole nation is well below average for both snowcover and snowfall to date. 3. in terms of winter weather and severity, this is even milder than 2012,2020, and 2023 for almost the entirety of CONUS. Remember, 2023, while being historically un snowy for this board, was historically snowy for many from west coast through upper Midwest and the Great Lakes. This year, no one is winning (except for a few places in Deep South where one snowstorm is a good season for them). I think NYC has only dropped into the teens like 2 nights at most. 4. And with the projected jet extension in beginning of March, that will put this winter to bed, the chefs kiss. 3 jet extension torches. One for the last 3 weeks of December, one in first 2 weeks of February, and one projected in early March. Critical timeframes of winter totally shunted CONUSwide by a dominant pacific. Incredible. Surprisingly, with the clipper event coming up (and other snow not withstanding), NYC has more snow than 2020, 2023, 2002, 1998, and will likely have more than 2012 when all is said and done. Yet with the great patterns indicated for much of the season, somehow this hurts even more. And it’s awful for storm tracking when much of the nation has been void of snow.

A few things that astonish me, and yes I know, I’ve said them before, but I can’t help but repeat them now. 1. a quick pattern regression after Feb 25th or so, into one that is consistent with a western trough and eastern ridge, which would provide west US with ample opportunity for both winter weather and severe storms (this is a complete shift from the projected pattern for the same period that has been showing up the past few weeks) 2. If any winter could be dubbed “the year without a winter” it would be this one. Only twelve named winter Storms from the weather channel up until this point. And for all those who will say it’s unscientific to name winter storms (I agree on some level), lake ice extent is at a record low, temperature anomalies are near a record high for the northern tier, and almost the whole nation is well below average for both snowcover and snowfall to date. 3. in terms of winter weather and severity, this is even milder than 2012,2020, and 2023 for almost the entirety of CONUS. Remember, 2023, while being historically un snowy for this board, was historically snowy for many from west coast through upper Midwest and the Great Lakes. This year, no one is winning (except for a few places in Deep South where one snowstorm is a good season for them). I think NYC has only dropped into the teens like 2 nights at most. 4. And with the projected jet extension in beginning of March, that will put this winter to bed, the chefs kiss. 3 jet extension torches. One for the last 3 weeks of December, one in first 2 weeks of February, and one projected in early March. Critical timeframes of winter totally shunted CONUSwide by a dominant pacific. Incredible. Surprisingly, with the clipper event coming up (and other snow not withstanding), NYC has more snow than 2020, 2023, 2002, 1998, and will likely have more than 2012 when all is said and done. Yet with the great patterns indicated for much of the season, somehow this hurts even more. And it’s awful for storm tracking when much of the nation has been void of snow.

2 things that astonish me, and yes I know, I’ve said them before, but I can’t help but repeat them now. 1. a quick pattern regression after Feb 25th or so, into one that is consistent with a western trough and eastern ridge, which would provide west US with ample opportunity for both winter weather and severe storms (this is a complete shift from the projected pattern for the same period that has been showing up the past few weeks) 2. If any winter could be dubbed “the year without a winter” it would be this one. Only twelve named winter Storms from the weather channel up until this point. And for all those who will say it’s unscientific to name winter storms (I agree on some level), lake ice extent is at a record low, temperature anomalies are near a record high for the northern tier, and almost the whole nation is well below average for both snowcover and snowfall to date. 3. in terms of winter weather and severity, this is even milder than 2012,2020, and 2023 for almost the entirety of CONUS. Remember, 2023, while being historically un snowy for this board, was historically snowy for many from west coast through upper Midwest and the Great Lakes. This year, no one is winning (except for a few places in Deep South where one snowstorm is a good season for them). I think NYC has only dropped into the teens like 2 nights at most. 4. And with the projected jet extension in beginning of March, that will put this winter to bed, the chefs kiss. 3 jet extension torches. One for the last 3 weeks of December, one in first 2 weeks of February, and one projected in early March. Critical timeframes of winter totally shunted CONUSwide by a dominant pacific. Incredible. Surprisingly, with the clipper event coming up (and other snow not withstanding), NYC has more snow than 2020, 2023, 2002, 1998, and will likely have more than 2012 when all is said and done. Yet with the great patterns indicated for much of the season, somehow this hurts even more. And it’s awful for storm tracking when much of the nation has been void of snow.

I don’t think I’ve ever seen such a quick pattern regression as we’ve seen over the last week. A quick breakdown of the -NAO around end of month, coupled with a pac jet extension to kick off March. Lots of February-March wintry favorable forecasts are in high danger at this point.

I don’t think I’ve ever seen such a quick pattern regression as we’ve seen over the last week. A quick breakdown of the -NAO around end of month, coupled with a pac jet extension to kick off March. Lots of February-March wintry favorable forecasts are in high danger at this point.

Hmm, looks like we’ll need a thread coming up maybe by tonight or tomorrow morning. Looks like mountains of WV and MD might need a winter storm warning if this trend continues.

Looks like cooler conditions will prevail over the next 10 days for our region, with generally above average temperatures in the west (as indicative of a +PNA/western ridging, and eastern trough). That being said, that doesn't guarantee snow at all. Generally speaking, it indicates a stormier than normal pattern, but the eastern trough looks to flat/positive around the coast. Ideally, we'd want it to be a bit more negatively tilting to support storms strengthening just offshore as opposed to escaping quickly like the one today. Lack of atlantic blocking has been a problem in 2022, 2023 (many other problems with that year), and 2024 (many problems with this year as well), but lack of atlantic blocking around our time for snow doesn't help at all. Only serves to hurt us at this point.

Sun is coming our bright here. Melting happening right now. Its too bad.