Krs4Lfe

Looking less and less likely that this will be a “plowable” snowfall. Looks like a minor event at best. Maybe when the cold air relaxes we can get something larger. But then again it’ll probably be too warm to snow

And pursuant to the name of your account, central park under measures everything so I doubt this would get anywhere near 4”

The only question remains: can we get 4” of snow at NYC before then? If we see a shutout for this month given how cold this month has been, that’s a big yikes

I think it would be a lot better if we saw *something* here this month. Ideally, if NYC saw 4”+ we would Be in ok shape because 4” is the magic number. That being said, lots of signs for a warm up after rhe 20th

Unfortunately, in this fast flow pattern that has been dominant since 2019, I doubt storms will pop up out of nowhere. I think if there’s enough storminess around, one will come our way.

Yeah once we ended up getting 0” that month after a great pattern, and January was warm and a shutout; I knew we were in for one of the least snow winters ever.

Things are looking rather ugly later in the month. Looks like we lose the cold real quickly around the 20th or so. If we’re going to see snow for rest of month it should be in that period. La Ninas are notorious for torches in January and February. Not seeing any signs of anything different this time around. I could even seen a December 2022 repeat. Great pattern but 0 snow. The worst of the worst

Yeah at some point this cold air will have to ease up. Very few winters have almost wall to wall cold. And in this climate, it’s nearly impossible. All the more reason to capitalize on the cold now and get some snow

They can, and when they do pop up, I think we know what areas will receive snow, and it likely won't be here. Winter has shown its cards, a continuation of a suppressed, hugger, or cutter pattern that has existed for the past 7 years (exception being 2021 and 2022). It's unfortunate, and at some point I'm sure we'll see some snow. But this is eerily similar to December 2022. Colder than normal, great looking pattern, and snow everywhere except for our region. And in a La Nina, if we have below average snow in December, it likely extends to rest of winter as well.

The worst part is that in our ever warming climate it is increasingly difficult to have a colder than an average month, especially during the winter. However, over the past few years every time we have a colder than average month it is mainly cold and dry, and we barely have any snow in this region. Our bad luck just won’t run out.

Just in time for a mid month warmup, as was a bit expected, but hopefully it doesn’t become like the infamous December 2023 jet extension where we roasted for the rest of the month

Yes, this is very reminiscent of the winter weather pattern we had last January and last February, which mainly has suppressed storms that targeted the southern US and areas of the lower Midwest, while most of the rest of the country was cold and dry. With this next push of arctic air there simply isn’t enough of a southern stream to coincide with the arctic air and produce much meaningful snow. Instead, we are stuck with the winter pattern from last year, which is dry, cold, and any snow is usually suppressed.

Well we received a Dusting here in Queens. Don’t think it would be enough to count as 0.1 at Central park but maybe counts as an our first snow of the season ?

Unfortunately, it looks like we might have to shut the blinds for a bit over here. Both of the next clippers will likely head to our north, with maybe some light rain for our area. On the backside, cold and dry once more. Colder than normal weather seems to be nearly guaranteed for the foreseeable future. But no snow in sight.

Correct. As long as the Northern stream continues to zip across CONUS, it doesn’t have the chance to connect with southern stream and phase. Until this changes, we will undoubtedly have cold air but almost nothing to show for it

Well I guess the present thinking is that we’re due for snow here in the NYC metro. We’ve had snow just to our north, just to our west (today and a few days ago) and now to our south for DC and people further south. At some point I’m assuming we’ll get on board just to fill in the map lol. Hopefully soon. It’s truly looking like this is the coldest December since 2013. In terms of the snow department; who knows? But we will have enough cold. Let’s hope we have enough snow as well

One of the reasons why it's so easy to be pessimistic is because of Jan-Feb 2025 and Dec 2022. Those patterns, observed from a far, would have been a gangbusters wintry weather period in the 2010s. But it just didn't materialize. In fact in December 2022, hardly any of us saw even 1 flake of snow. We've seen numerous good patterns (not just out in model fantasy land, but actually experiencing the good patterns) since winter 2019 that just failed to materialize winter weather events. Sure, those patterns produced cold, and sometimes, serious cold. But almost nothing came of those time periods. If that didn't happen, I think we would all feel more comfortable about this month.

I would definitely say less than 3. There’s almost no reason to bet against below average snow and warmer temperatures for these parts now. The warmer temperature is one won’t verify for December, but I am sure the below average snowfall will.

Like I’ve said in the past, it’s always good to see storms around the country in December but it seems like aside from the stormy start that just occurred. We will have the next 7 to 10 days of pretty much cold and dry over eastern and central US with nothing to show for it. Pre 2020 era, we would have ample snowstorms moving across the northern tier when you had such a cold weather pattern. But now everything ends up being suppressed and then when a storm amps up it ends up cutting or the southeast Ridge pushes it too far west for any of us to see the benefit. Welcome to the new normal.

Unfortunately, that’s not going to happen until we see some sort of big-time retraction of the Pacific jet, but that would require this summer temperatures over the north Pacific to not be super warm like they have been for the past seven years which leads to this faster pacific jet along the boundary with a colder Eurasia.

After missing out on snow on Friday, it looks like we'll have that warm/cutter mid month. So then we're looking at second half of month for any snow. However, the fast flow is not allowing for anything. At least it'll be cold

Looks like a lot of warm/wet cutters, then cold and dry. Very reminiscent of the 2019 winter set up.

Yeah last year NYC was able to get 1-1.5" of snow a few days before christmas and then christmas eve as well. Light, clipper like events. I don't think any vortex will dig down deep enough to bring big snow to Northeast this month because it's very northern stream dominant at the moment, but you can always get a little clipper/cold front related snow action

I remember that one. There was nothing to show for it, just how there's been almost nothing to show for it since all the great winter patterns that have been promised since that winter, 3 years in a row. Looks to be cold but inactive through mid month, and then we have to hopefully obtain 4" of snow in the second half of the month. By then, we have to hope that the mid month warmup isn't too warm for snow. That being said, we can easily have a colder than normal month but with little to no snow to show for it.

Maue has become quite the hype over the past few years as far as weather Twitter goes. Long range (over next few weeks) looks active which is good. It’s good that we have the cold air (though tjat will warm up a bit in mid month, and I’m sure we will torch around Christmas) but timing the cold air during the storminess is a hard sell over in these parts