Krs4Lfe
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Everything posted by Krs4Lfe
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CMC has light snow for most (moderate snow for east new england) ICON has light snow (moderate snow for east new england) GFS has snow off shore Just waiting on UKMET and Euro
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Cold front moving through later day. That sets up the colder half of the month after 9 days with above average temperatures. I wonder what the anomalies were like for NYC during this period. Had to have been around average of +10 for the past 9 days. Felt real toasty after a colder November through New Years regime
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We will need the northern stream to relax, but that won’t happen because of fast pacific flow. That stems from a very warm northern Pacific Ocean, especially during the summertime, as we’ve seen from the marine heat waves. This is directly linked to climate change. Unless the northern stream slows down and can phase with the southern jet, we will not have coastal storm tracks, and we will not be able to nickel and dime our way to average snowfall. Late Jan through early February won’t work out either.
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I hate to be the one that says it. But it needs to be said. Winter has shown its cards. It got off to a great start with above average snowfall in December and well below average temperatures. But since then, we have been warm for nearly the entire month of January. No snow threats have worked out for us. While it will become cold starting this weekend, this weekend snow threat will not work out and the Euro was right once again. Time to wrap it up, folks.
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ICON has a storm just offshore. But verbatim there’s nothing for most of us. Very similar to its last run. Light snow with a larger storm offshore. Aside from the GFS, that seems to be the consensus for now. Trough struggles to turn negative. Therein lies the issue
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NAM has almost Nothing for Sunday. Not a great sign considering how over amped the nam usually is
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Until the record breaking northern stream of the pacific jet subsides; like in 2021 and Jan 2022, we will not reach average snowfall because there are no KU tracks. The more that the western pacific warms during the summer (record breaking marine heatwaves every year now), the lower chance we have of a KU. Might become the new normal, if it isn’t already
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I say further east. I think that’s the only way this storm can trend. And I think Saturday’s snow negatively interferes with Sunday and pushes the boundary level further offshore. I could see it being moderate snow for east New England and Maine though
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GFS has been proven wrong time and again. I bet Euro will be right in regards to the 24th as well, a big cutter during our warmup
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No accumulation with those temps for Saturday unless higher elevation. Still has almost nothing for Sunday.
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For Sunday: CMC has light snow UKMET has light snow AI models (GFS and Euro) have light-moderate snow ICON has light snow GFS has a snowstorm Euro has almost nothing For Saturday: all models have up to an inch for almost all of us. But since temps will be in low-mid 30s, there will be no accumulation
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Finally. We went above average on 1/6 and have been like +10 since then. 8 days
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Euro has a cutter for 22nd-25th period where other models show a SWFE.
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Yeah, it's been incredibly warm and dry across West and Plains this "winter." The only wintry weather has been from North Dakota through Midwest to Northeast. We are all falling behind average snow. Very mild January thus far for entire US
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Euro has nothing for Sunday. So here's where we are: GFS has big storm (won't happen) CMC has a light-moderate event UKMET has a light event ICON has a light-moderate event Either way, almost all models have light snow on Saturday. But the antecedent airmass is very warm so I'd only expect accumulation inland.
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UK shows nothing. GFS shows a bomb. CMC has a light-moderate event. Icon has a light-moderate event. We'll see what Euro says
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Looks nice and cold in the long range. CMC and GFS have something around the 22nd, looks like a SWFE which would favor New England of course.
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Yes and no. The trough needs to be negative in order to get this further west. If it's not negative, it's not coming further west with a positive trough.
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Let's see what GFS and CMC have for the 22nd and beyond. Last night was obviously a weenie run, but the pattern would indicate there would probably be something within that timeframe
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I'm still waiting for the one on 1/7 and the pattern change to colder weather on 1/11
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GFS has a classic arctic boundary storm, snow riding up from Deep South through east coast, and intensifying off coast of Mid Atlantic. Weenie run
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GFS has light snow Saturday morning, temps around freezing, but quick moving and likely no accumulation.
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ICON is most similar to Euro. Has moderate snowfall just offshore. Started to look better early on but the trough is still positively tilted. With a positive tilt, it's limited in how far west it can get
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Models really lost the storm signal around the 24th big time. They were honking on it yesterday but now…. Nothing. I’m sure something will reappear at some point because the pattern is conducive. But wow what a change in a 6 hour model run period !
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Can’t ask for a better look than the one setting up after the 1/16 cold front moves through. Lots of blocking, Greenland ridging, arctic ridging and persistent troughs swinging throuhh Centeal and east US. Unfortunately we’ve seen similar patterns in Feb 2025, Dec 2022 that have not performed. But on the flip side, we’ve seen patterns like that in Feb 2021, Feb 2015 that did perform. Seems like an equal chance at either one, pick your own adventure !
