Krs4Lfe

I'd expect that to play out pretty well here. It looks like the northern stream will continue to outpace the southern stream and that fast flow pretty much ruins any chance of those amplified solutions actually coming to fruition. While the ENSO state in late January and February appears to mirror 2013-2014, the winter weather outcome will likely be polar opposites.

Prediction: NYC ends up this winter with under 15". Would be 4 in a row, probably a record

Exactly. The northern stream and southern stream need to be timed perfectly in order to amplify without the suppression risks and the cutter risks that we've seen this entire decade (aside from 2021 and January 2022). While we were admittedly spoiled in the 2000s and 2010s, I don't consider this a reversion to the mean, I consider this to be part of a larger climatological problem (though I suppose that's discussion for another thread.)

Yeah, dry begets dry and snow begets snow etc. The appearance of only one coastal storm during fall doesn't lend credence to coastal storms during the winter either. The ongoing warmth in the west and central US is more damaging then most of us are letting on I believe. Prevents any substantial storminess and reduces the chances of snowstorms coming from our south and west. Instead, we're reliant on clippers.

Either way, with a properly timed +PNA spike and ridge over Idaho/Rockies, we can get some deeper storms over the east. However, with forecasts showing the -PNA returning towards the end of model range, that would reduce the chances for what I just mentioned above. And like you said, that's evident by the milder east US temperature forecasts, and the sharp cold projected to return during mid month doesn't seem as likely

I think the dryness is a symptom of a very disjointed northern and southern streams. Back in the 2010s, colder anomalies over the east meant more storminess because the northern stream would dip and the southern stream would amplify and cause big storms. This decade, it just means cold and dry because the Northern stream keeps outpacing the southern stream. Largely due to a fast pacific flow exacerbated by yearly record marine heatwaves in northwest pacific

Nothing to look forward to weather wise in the forseeable future. We return to cold next week; at least that we know. But storminess? The US is pretty much void of any activity. I haven’t seen this even in ratter winters for us. Just warm and dry in central US and the west and then cold and dry in the east. Remarkable

That’s terrifying. 2022-2023 was a nonexistent winter for those south of central New England. The west throuhh upper Midwest and Great Lakes/ north New England did great. South of there was like spring all winter

Around this time in 2018: By the beginning of second week of January, after spending about 12 days below freezing, most of Flushing Bay and Little Neck Bay, along with other bays along north shore of Long Island and Queens became frozen. Was one of the most impressive cold snaps I’ve ever seen here. Didn’t make it close to 0, single digits only, but the duration was very impressive. Similar to the duration of January 2014 and February 2015, Late January 2019 made it close to 0, mid February 2023, and Valentine’s Day 2016 of course. All of those were close to 0, but just a few days of deep cold. The duration of January 2018, January 2014, and February 2015 was very impressive. Late Jan through early Feb 2025 was also very impressive in duration. Most of the south bays were frozen over I believe

Yeah next weekend is looking quite warm. Probably close to 60 in NYC and 60s to 65 or so from Philly to DC. Rain or not, very warm

The persistent warmth in the central and west US is almost unprecedented. Most of those places have barely seen any snow, if at all. Winter has largely been confined to the Midwest and northeast. It is becoming more evident that this is not the winter for cross country storms, at least not yet. We have a higher chance of scoring big when we’re not the only ones with the cold air

That looks to be a favorable window. Let’s hope it doesn’t get pushed back like many other patterns

Back in the days when you could get a snowstorm over here, Queens had a solid 12" blizzard on this in 2018, and woke up to a solid 7-10" powdery snowstorm on this day in 2014, with single digit temperatures after the storm.

As dry as far as the eye can see. We start rebuilding the cold after the 11th, but almost no wintry weather to speak of across CONUS during early Jan, similar to last year. It has happened the past few years occasionally and is a big symptom of a very disjointed southern stream and northern stream. Fast flow prevents large storms from traversing across CONUS like they used to, Very evident on today's 12z guidance

It would be nice to see some southern stream activity get going. None of the models have any of that showing up in the future. Without that, we'll be similar to the cold and dry like Jan-Feb 2025. But as long as northern stream remains active, we can get some clipper action

We will have to almost completely rely on the northern stream for some sort of action because there is no evidence of a coastal storm pattern showing up yet. Maybe after the trough swings back east around the 11th. Very rare to make it to our seasonal snowfall without some sort of KU storm. But yeah from 1/6-1/10 it's looking quite warm. 50s next weekend!

Yeah its very rare that cutters trend back down towards the coast. It's just too soon and the pattern change hasn't kicked in yet. However, it could offer significant snow further inland most likely. If we're lucky, we'll get some sort of wintry precip at the start

It's probably the only thing we have going for us at the moment that points towards a snowier winter. Hopefully this year doesn't become the exception, but at least we have one analog on our side.

One of the most mild and snowless winters for many in the west half of the US. Snow and cold has been confined to Midwest and Northeast. The dry conditions for many roll on. Dry begets dry, and without wholescale changes in the west (a west coast trough), the west will continue to lack in the snow and cold department. There were several years like that in the 2010s, with a large western ridge and eastern trough and east US was going blockbuster with the snow and west was suffering from lack of skiing and lack of water. That's similar to this year

Lack of snow in the 1980s was not due to lack of cold. It was just an imperfect track pattern and persistent drought/dryness. Aside from last year where suppression was an issue, most of our issues since 2020 have been that it's too warm for snow. Look at all those benchmark tracks in 2020, 2023, and 2024 that brought rain to most of us because there wasn't enough cold supply. That's where the climate change argument kicks in, but we'll hold off on that for now.

The fast pacific jet will continue to prevent a west based -NAO from forming and remaining persistent. Northern stream continues to outpace southern stream leading to clippers and dustings while larger storms become more and more rare. The precipitation anomalies look atrocious for rest of the month. Dry all around

Models generally rush a pattern change (both for bad patterns and good patterns). However, the models appear to be converging on the 11th for a flip back to colder weather after our torch. But it would likely take a few days after that to be able to usher in a snowy pattern. Hopefully not just for us but for Central US as well. They’re having a record warm and snowless winter. Start getting some storms passing through that region and then we can get some more passing through here as well. Our odds are better when we’re not just limited to northern stream clippers

You think we'll get some of that here in the city?

Ensembles really appeared to have overdone the warmth over the east US around the mid month period. The sings of an east coast trough are appearing around 1/11, which is a solid few days earlier than expected a few days ago. That will likely shorten our torch from 1/5-1/10, before a more favorable pattern reloads. I just don't like seeing such dry and mild conditions across south, central, and west US. They have a lot of ground to make up. Midwest and northeast are the only parts of the US that have had any meaningful cold or snow whatsoever this season. Even with the east coast trough, unless the pacific slows down enough to give us a big coastal, everything will be dominated by the northern stream. That means it'll take a lot of little events to boost us up towards seasonal average. I'm a bit skeptical

Yeah once we entered January 2024, the mjo was projected to go into favorable stages and the pattern looked pretty good but it never materialized. However, it seems the models are holding steady with this time with the projected pattern change around January 11th. We'll torch for a bit but a PNA spike and east coast trough would be good news if it actually happens