Krs4Lfe

Upper 50s here in Queens. Winter is long gone. Amazing at how quickly the colder pattern flipped. Spring is fast approaching. Avoided a ratter winter here in NYC, made it to 13", making this a C- winter. I only grade winter based off snow. Average is around 28" which would be a B+. I consider a B to be mid 20" inches. B- to be low 20", C+ to be upper 10" inches, C to be mid 10" inches (if we get a few more inches in March this winter would reach mid 10" inches"). Lower 10" inches is C-, and a ratter is anything under 9" or so. In terms of cold air though, it felt amazing, I wish every winter could have temperatures like this one.

What I find interesting is that, even in years like 2019, 2022, and 2023—which were not particularly snowy for the New York City area—there were still significant storms across the country. There were also interesting storms to track, even if they didn’t impact this region. It’s worth noting that eastern New England and parts of the Mid-Atlantic did experience a notable snow year in 2022, and in 2023, snowfall records were broken across the West Coast, Rocky Mountains, and parts of the Upper Midwest. Cities like Minneapolis and Bismarck had exceptional snowfall seasons, surpassing 100 inches, while some locations in the Rockies reported totals of up to 400 inches. In contrast, last winter (2024) and this winter (2025) have been largely devoid of significant storms, except for brief windows in January and early February. Unlike previous years, there have been very few large-scale storms affecting a broad swath of the country. Even by The Weather Channel’s metric for naming winter storms—where a storm is named if over 2 million people are under a winter storm warning or blizzard warning—both this year and last year have been lacking. In fact, this season has had a record-low number of named winter storms, with only 11 so far, compared to the usual 17 or 18 by this point in the season. This trend highlights how the past two winters haven’t been favorable for snowfall in most areas, aside from parts of the Deep South. I assume that, with climate change, this pattern will only become more pronounced—favoring snow accumulation in the far north and Great Lakes regions, as well as in the Deep South, but leaving much of the country in between with significantly reduced snowfall. I expect this to be the new normal.

Just checked the weather for the week coming up. 40s and 50s all week. Pack it in, it’s over. Wednesday’s snow felt great, last one until December

Unfortunately, those are probably underdone, and without any precip moving through the area, looks like mild and dry

I doubt it. The models show 40s and 50s to start March, and average temps only increase from there. Doesn't look like any signs of sustained cold coming our way, which we would probably need for some marginal snowfall

Looks like we'll be heading to 40s and 50s by end of next week. Starting off meteorological spring strong. We'll need some colder air in order to work out a marginal event down here. If we're finished with snow, NYC's amount is 16" lower than the average.

Around 0.5” here in Bayside, maybe a bit more. Cold, breezy, and light snow. Cant get better than this.

It’s always surprised me how even when other places are having a “snowless” or “mild” winter, it’s much better than NYC, sometimes in an average NYC winter. Snowfall in the 20s each year is bad when your average is 40, but look at us we can barely crack 13” in a cold winter this decade

Absolutely. Quick changeover to Spring in around 1.5 weeks. Typical of La Niña. Coldest winter in these parts since 2015 I believe. Was nice while it lasted

And with that, we say farewell to winter and on to Spring. Only colder than average temps will allow for any marginal event down to the coast. Clock is rapidly ticking, time is almost up.

That's why we haven't seen nice looking model depictions of blues over the east lately. Because they show the opposite. I give you credit Snowman, you have been spot on lately. Looking past pretty model depictions have showed the failure mode all winter long. No reason to think it'll change in March

Aside from that it seems like Spring has sprung for most of the country and I think we’re on borrowed time for any wintry weather. GFS was showing insane cold yesterday but considering I haven’t seen that posted anywhere, I assume it’s not being shown anymore.

Not much to say about the long range model runs last night. Rain at the end of next week as a storm moves through the area. Then it looks like some colder than average weather gets stuck over the East but not much in the way or precip. CONUS looks pretty inactive as well, as spring like weather returns to the West and Central US. East US appears to be only place that will have some colder weather for the foreseeable future. Without any storms moving through though, the chance for any snow in March is next to zero. I think that’s all for this winter folks.

Hasn't been our year since 2021. Something has gone awry this decade. I think what Bluewave says about record warm SSTs in North Pacific is leading to a stronger Pac Jet and faster Northern stream. As favorable as the North Atlantic might be, we need the pacific and northern stream to slow down. Until then, there will be no KUs, and we won't reach above average snowfall.

Sure, next year maybe.

Sort of. I just have a feeling it'll trend badly like it always seems to

I'll never understand the constant hyping for cold and snow (or any extremes of that nature) that those two do on social media. It trickles down to weather boards and forums as well. Not in any way that is intentionally malicious, but the amount of times we've seen pretty Day 15 OPS or Ensembles posted on here, just for them to not verify *imagine the shock there*. And then we sit back and do :/ how did that happen, as if we haven't been doing that since 2019, knowing they probably won't verify (with the exception of 2021 winter and January 2022).

I think we can all discount the 12z GFS, showing a lobe of the TPV descending onto the Northeast at the end of next week. Likely, that would lead to a stormier regime as well, but the more Ryan Maue is discussing it online, the less it'll likely occur. I would expect highs to be consistently around 50 degrees by next weekend. Not too far off from when we usually have our first 50s but I'd expect the 12z GFS to snap back to reality by the next run. 12z CMC and 12z Euro show no precip over next 7 days and mild temperatures. Good news is that there's plenty of cold bottled up in Canada and northern tier so maybe some of that can spill down our way when we would need it in order for it snow in March

On a side note, I wonder how much we ever stop and appreciate that this forum has been around since late 2010, and has active discussion about storms leading up the event, observations during the event, and then post-event analysis for almost every weather event that has happened in CONUS since late 2010. This has to be the only site like that. There are sub-forums that encompass the whole country (even though the Tennessee River Valley and West forum aren’t that active). Just like a treasure trove of model runs, forecasts, and observations as they happen in real time. I wonder if this site will become a historical marker one day ?

One thing that I find of note and at the moment is the only thing to note is that there is a very big pool of cold air buildup across the northern tier of the US and Canada. So even though it looks like spring to begin March if we have a timely injection of cold air combined with some storm coming from northern Stream or a SW, then we might be able to see a marginal event in March. However, I wouldn’t count on that considering the way this winter has gone. I think it most likely a shutdown from here on out.

I hope March is similar. We get enough warmth April to September. I want cold, dark, windy winters

Well, at some point there was going to be a thaw over here after three months of below average temperatures, regardless of whether it accompanied a big storm or not but ideally what we would want is for a cold regime to redevelop for the rest of March and give us a chance at some snow considering March is a warmer month. It’s pretty much impossible for it to snow with the average temperatures.

Does it look like the pattern is active across CONUS? because if the pattern is still active across the country with an injection of cold air maybe something can work out for these parts but without that activity across the country which has been lacking for much of the winter it’s hard to get something over here

Normally I wouldn’t say that but this winter has shown its cards. And there’s no doubting the pattern regression after this storm. Looking at the long range looks like nothing but mild temps for these parts, looks pretty inactive nationwide actually

When do we throw the white flag in and say that it’s not going to snow here for this one? What an incredible letdown this was, compounded by pattern regression for the rest of winter. I think yesterday was last time NYC probably sees anything measurable for rest of season