Krs4Lfe

Dare I try to be the voice of reason, but even though the GFS has also backed off on, it’s insanely amplified solutions that it had on Friday and Saturday, there is still a legitimate possibility of pulling a moderate snow out of this one. I don’t think it’s one of those scenarios where either you get a blockbuster storm or you get nothing at all, this one is close enough that it can trend to a moderate storm, particularly along the coast.

Oh yeah, that was absolutely an amazing winter and the numerous chances for snow in a row like on the euro model give flashbacks the 2014 and 2015 Winters, but I’m sure it’s not going to play out in that fashion. Still it’s good to see that they were ample chances for winter weather in the second half of this month showing up on the models.

That was one of the best Euro runs we've seen in a long time. The cold is re-established, and the wintry events from next week set up some sort of blocking feature in the Atlantic. Seems like ample chances for snow are coming over a generally colder temp regime starting around the 14th. I'm sure not all the snow events will come to fruition, but the more there is in the long range would increase our chances for winter weather.

We would need 16" more to get to that and about 21" more to reach average. A few moderate systems or one big one can get us there

I must say, even though I usually post horrible takes, the Euro is quite cold in the long range and the latest model suite doesn't dump a trough in the west after the 3rd week of january. Stays very cold, with waves riding along the arctic boundary. That depiction looks similar to 2014 and 2015 winters. Obviously I don't think the overall outcome will be the same, but hard to deny that it looks like very cold air is coming and several chances for precip.

We're getting closer to go time, only 5 days away, so models should be coalescing around a scenario. Whether that's a large storm offshore like the GFS or no storm like ICON, or something in between. Very interesting to see all the dry air though even on the GFS during the storm.

Yeah we just have to hope that the cold air which returns around 1/14 can set up some semblance of a wintry pattern. We thawed very well over the past week and a return to colder weather would ideally bring some chances for winter weather but we've seen stranger things happen at this point

The same northern stream issues we've had for a while now. It's too far east and can't phase, so no storm can come up the coast. Also pretty much ruins the chances for the storm after that too, everything is shunted too far east.

And that area of above average snowfall and below average temperatures continues to shrink every day. It's been a year without winter west of the Mississippi river. And here in the northeast we've torched quite well this week. Colder weather appears to return this week which brings more warmth to the west. Been lots of talk about a 2013-2014 pattern setting up or 2014-2015, but this winter is one of the farthest from those.

Looks great at 500 but the precip shield is dried out because there is a double barrel low stealing the precip.

You would think the surface would respond to those mid level changes but it’s not

Icon looked great at 500, and the ridge was in perfect position with a closed off negatively tiled trough in Tennessee. But surface depiction just slides it right out to sea. Probably the Tpv lobe just dragging everything too far east

Still remarkable to me How non-snowy most of the US has been this winter. Even mid Atlantic places that started off early are now behind average. Aside from Midwest and northeast, only the mountainous west has had any snow (and not much of that either.) Just a total lack of snow and cold. Yes, I know, I say it often. But I think it’s worth being stated. This has been a non winter for the majority of the US. Winter never even started for most. Would take a repeated series of storms and cold shorts to bring this winter out of the gutter for most. There’s still plenty of time, but I think winter has shown it’s cards in those places

GFS is still on an island with its solutions. Ensembles arent biting too much, nor are the other operational models. Aside from GFS, the trough remains positive on most model guidance which argues against a coastal storm coming up the coast. And a lack of gulf moisture to tap into as well so it’s kind of a sheared out mess. I would not put credence into any big solutions for either the 16th or the 20th. Northern stream seems too fast

I'm still not uncanceling my winter cancel post until we reach somewhat close to seasonal/average snow totals. I'll believe it when I see it

We would need some very good snow seasons in order to surpass the worst average snowfall in recorded NYC history. A very tall ask in a warming world

Yes but some of those years were just a product of it being too dry, as opposed to the warm boundary layer that we constantly deal with this decade. Also, three ratters in a row shows that the 2020s is more of a feast/famine sort of thing. 70s through 90s were overall below average but were consistently in the 15" range. Past 3 years in NYC are historically unsnowy, and back to back as well. I understand what you're saying, but it feels like there is something bigger at play here

Very delicate situation because GFS is amped but relying on a CCB to bring down the cold air. Otherwise, there would be some temperature issues like the Euro shows. Good to see it not backing down, but we need support from the other models as well.

Felt like March this week in NYC. Gross

NYC average is near 30” of snow. It would take several moderate snow events to make it to that level. We have not seen many moderate events in one season since 2015. 2013, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2021 made it above average with storms that had a double digit snowstorm. 2014 and 2015 made it above average with several moderate events (and some bigger ones too, but those were well above average seasons.) would take several moderate events to give NYC another 22” in order to reach average. So unless we buck the trend and get back to having several moderate events like in the great winters of 2014 and 2015, we will need a KU to reach average

And verbatim, the GFS model was on an island with an insanely amp solution, and that will not come to fruition. So we have to rely on a strengthening low pressure system that rides the western Atlantic Ridge boundary which can still bring mixed precipitation for us on the coast. Depending on where the boundary sets up after the potential event on the 15th to 16th will dictate the storm track of the next potential event. As we’ve seen since 2020 it is quite possible to have a near perfect benchmark track with the precipitation still falling as rain if the antecedent air mass is still too warm. Just keep in mind that this warm-up is going to last a little longer than expected and will not be finished like the 11th as most models were suggested in a week ago. It will now take into midweek in order for this thaw to finish.

Yes, and without a return to a KU type storm, it is nearly impossible for the majority of us to reach our seasonal snowfall average because many of us are too warm now for the minor/boundary temperature snow events. So we need to rely on a KU in order to reach our seasonal average. Those have been missing aside from 2021 and January 2022 because of the fast specific flow which has constantly pushed the northern stream out ahead of any southern stream vortex, which has not allowed for amplified solutions. As long as the Pacific jet remains as fast as it is, it will become rarer and rarer to have a KU type storm

Well now it certainly won’t happen. Fantasy

If the CPC is correct, that would be a good look for cold and would possibly translate over to wintry weather chances. Colder than normal temps at peak climo for second half of January and first week of February is ideal. But it’s also PNA related. A negative PNA will drive trough and cold into west which would lead to heights rising in the east. Most model guidance shows a return to a -PNA towards the end of their range. Whether that moved up in time remains yet to be seen

Been very warm this week. Around low 50s past few days, and looks like we continue with the 40s until mid-late next week. The models rushed the pattern change back to cold. Still warm and mild for the foreseeable future. Thursday's storm threat has essentially dissipated (not for the south though) but trough seems to be too positively tilted to get it up to the coast. The follow up next weekend is too warm on the Euro and is in fantasy range anyway. Nothing to get excited about aside from the cold air returning mid week next week