Krs4Lfe

Until the warmth from the CC outpaces the cold and you end up with rain from a benchmark track. That is coming sooner than we think

Yeah made it to low 50s in NYC as well. We’re torching quite well this week. Seems like we’ll be back into colder weather by Monday, 1/12. This will definitively erase our colder than average start to the month

Too much energy flying around. With a low in the great lakes, nothing is coming up the coast.

The low pressure over the lakes will not allow this storm to come up north. It acts as a kicker and pushes the weak low pressure out to sea. Regardless of any model surface map depictions, as long as you see that Great Lakes low, you can pretty much write off a storm climbing up the coast. Western ridge is in good spot. This is one of the times where we would want a western Atlantic ridge to try to trap that storm in. Still plenty of time for changes but until that changes, this threat is non existent

Usually when Alaska and Europe is having a fantastic winter, we aren’t. The lack of cold and wintry weather across US (aside from Midwest and northeast) has been astonishing. I know some accounts keep harping on “2014 is coming back” but this is the farthest thing from that winter. Just mild and dry as far as eye can see

That and 2024 were among the biggest ratters in NYC. We have more snow now than we had those winters. I’ll take almost anything other than 2012,2020,2023,2024. Putrid and barely any cold in those either

1/31-2/1/21 was great too. 18” in NYC. Last time we had any storm over 12”. Solid 9-12” during 1/29/22 blizzard though

I think we’ll bust warm here in NYC today. Full sun out, no breeze, feels like spring. Warmest weather yet to come this weekend, could be well into the 50s

One big one could get us closer to seasonal average. Would make this torch all the more worthwhile

I've been following the European winter weather over the past week and it's quite impressive. Reminds me of winter 2012, 2018, and 2021 when Europe was getting blasted. I've notice they tend to have more winter weather during milder periods in the US. Winter 2021 had a snowstorm in Madrid, Athens, and even over in Israel. Always fascinating to see winter weather in places that aren't accustomed to it

Naturally, that would lead to heights rising in the east. The SER usually flexes during La Ninas later in the season anyway. That can lead to a nice gradient pattern like in 2014 or 2015, or it can link up with the -NAO and torch us for Feb and March like 2023 and 2024

Wow that really pours cold water on a flip to a colder regime around 11th or 12th like was expected. Seems like this thaw will last an additional 5 days or so. Was originally 1/6 to 1/11 or 12. Now this shows above normal temps through the 16th.

I agree, I have sent many times that the only thing going for us in terms of snowfall prospects is the fact in New York City has had about 8 inches of snow so far. Early season snow totals in a La Niña winter or are usually a good indication of what happens in the rest of winter. But time is ticking, and there is nothing on the horizon. We will need an extraordinary February to reach our seasonal snowfall.

Im just saying that if La Niña is truly front loaded and somehow we escape Jan without any meaningful snow; it wouldn’t bode well for the back half of winter.

That sounds terrible. If 8” of snow in NYC is the best this winter has to offer and the backside is worse, then we’re looking at a near ratter. The cold has been impressive though. Just wish there were more opportunities coming for snow. December was amazing; would be nice for January to have continued that trend.

They rushed the pattern change. The pattern will become colder around 1/11 no doubt. But the thaw is very powerful and very warm and it’ll take significant cold to make these areas below normal temps for January. Cold is only one step towards creating snow chances. Still nothing to look forward to on the horizon

BAM is honking about a warmer than expected "thaw" says it might persist longer than originally expected. Still expecting a flip to cold afterwards but even they admit this thaw has some teeth

That's how you know we're down bad. Not just us, but extreme inactivity across the US during peak climo. It's rare to not even see fantasy snow showing up. Either we have a huge flip and a return to storminess towards mid month or we're pushing into some rare territory

Outside of ratter winters, I've never seen such low prospects for snow for this area in the heart of January. Very reminiscent of 2020, 2023, 2012. That being said, we've had as much snow as entire winter 2024, all of winter 2023, all of winter 2020, and all of winter 2012. So it's very unlikely we end up in ratter territory unless we see no more snow for the rest of the season. But unless we have a massive turnaround at some point this month, winter has taken a vacation from the US. Just mild and warm as far as the eye can see

I know it sounds funny but it probably is the reason

We’re almost all above normal at normal for now. Give it a week or so or two weeks and we’re all below normal. Never seen almost compete dryness for most of US in January. A sight to behold

While some change to the weeklies is likely, La Nina’s are rarely cold in February. La Nina’s are very front loaded and usually torch the east by February. A SSW could bring some cold after February (regardless of the ENSO state) but Februarys in La Nina’s are notoriously warm.

The cold during 2014 and 2015 was very impressive. January 2018 as well. A few other periods since then have been mighty cold. 2014 and 2015 were amazing back to back winters. Could you even imagine something like that happening these days?

That's the biggest reason as to why there is no meaningful storminess in the foreseeable future and why winter has been limited to the midwest and northeast. The STJ is non existent, the pacific flow is too fast so the Northern stream can't link up with the non-existent southern stream (so no amplification). Even during our ratter winters we see some large storms somewhere. January 2025, January 2024, February 2021, January 2015 all had sharp returns to larger storms and widespread wintry precipation after a mild previous month. But January 2026 is looking high and dry for all of us

Yeah the West US through North New England did well but aside from that, most of the winter was very mild for most of the US. But even in ratter winters like that, someone usually performs well (like the west in 2024 and 2020) but here, it doesn't look like anyone is going to perform well with such a dry January on the way. Cold, yes (not deep cold but probably cold enough). Precipitation? Looks like the desert out there