Krs4Lfe

A few things that astonish me, and yes I know, I’ve said them before, but I can’t help but repeat them now. 1. a quick pattern regression after Feb 25th or so, into one that is consistent with a western trough and eastern ridge, which would provide west US with ample opportunity for both winter weather and severe storms (this is a complete shift from the projected pattern for the same period that has been showing up the past few weeks) 2. If any winter could be dubbed “the year without a winter” it would be this one. Only twelve named winter Storms from the weather channel up until this point. And for all those who will say it’s unscientific to name winter storms (I agree on some level), lake ice extent is at a record low, temperature anomalies are near a record high for the northern tier, and almost the whole nation is well below average for both snowcover and snowfall to date. 3. in terms of winter weather and severity, this is even milder than 2012,2020, and 2023 for almost the entirety of CONUS. Remember, 2023, while being historically un snowy for this board, was historically snowy for many from west coast through upper Midwest and the Great Lakes. This year, no one is winning (except for a few places in Deep South where one snowstorm is a good season for them). I think NYC has only dropped into the teens like 2 nights at most. 4. And with the projected jet extension in beginning of March, that will put this winter to bed, the chefs kiss. 3 jet extension torches. One for the last 3 weeks of December, one in first 2 weeks of February, and one projected in early March. Critical timeframes of winter totally shunted CONUSwide by a dominant pacific. Incredible. Surprisingly, with the clipper event coming up (and other snow not withstanding), NYC has more snow than 2020, 2023, 2002, 1998, and will likely have more than 2012 when all is said and done. Yet with the great patterns indicated for much of the season, somehow this hurts even more. And it’s awful for storm tracking when much of the nation has been void of snow.

2 things that astonish me, and yes I know, I’ve said them before, but I can’t help but repeat them now. 1. a quick pattern regression after Feb 25th or so, into one that is consistent with a western trough and eastern ridge, which would provide west US with ample opportunity for both winter weather and severe storms (this is a complete shift from the projected pattern for the same period that has been showing up the past few weeks) 2. If any winter could be dubbed “the year without a winter” it would be this one. Only twelve named winter Storms from the weather channel up until this point. And for all those who will say it’s unscientific to name winter storms (I agree on some level), lake ice extent is at a record low, temperature anomalies are near a record high for the northern tier, and almost the whole nation is well below average for both snowcover and snowfall to date. 3. in terms of winter weather and severity, this is even milder than 2012,2020, and 2023 for almost the entirety of CONUS. Remember, 2023, while being historically un snowy for this board, was historically snowy for many from west coast through upper Midwest and the Great Lakes. This year, no one is winning (except for a few places in Deep South where one snowstorm is a good season for them). I think NYC has only dropped into the teens like 2 nights at most. 4. And with the projected jet extension in beginning of March, that will put this winter to bed, the chefs kiss. 3 jet extension torches. One for the last 3 weeks of December, one in first 2 weeks of February, and one projected in early March. Critical timeframes of winter totally shunted CONUSwide by a dominant pacific. Incredible. Surprisingly, with the clipper event coming up (and other snow not withstanding), NYC has more snow than 2020, 2023, 2002, 1998, and will likely have more than 2012 when all is said and done. Yet with the great patterns indicated for much of the season, somehow this hurts even more. And it’s awful for storm tracking when much of the nation has been void of snow.

I don’t think I’ve ever seen such a quick pattern regression as we’ve seen over the last week. A quick breakdown of the -NAO around end of month, coupled with a pac jet extension to kick off March. Lots of February-March wintry favorable forecasts are in high danger at this point.

I don’t think I’ve ever seen such a quick pattern regression as we’ve seen over the last week. A quick breakdown of the -NAO around end of month, coupled with a pac jet extension to kick off March. Lots of February-March wintry favorable forecasts are in high danger at this point.

Hmm, looks like we’ll need a thread coming up maybe by tonight or tomorrow morning. Looks like mountains of WV and MD might need a winter storm warning if this trend continues.

Looks like cooler conditions will prevail over the next 10 days for our region, with generally above average temperatures in the west (as indicative of a +PNA/western ridging, and eastern trough). That being said, that doesn't guarantee snow at all. Generally speaking, it indicates a stormier than normal pattern, but the eastern trough looks to flat/positive around the coast. Ideally, we'd want it to be a bit more negatively tilting to support storms strengthening just offshore as opposed to escaping quickly like the one today. Lack of atlantic blocking has been a problem in 2022, 2023 (many other problems with that year), and 2024 (many problems with this year as well), but lack of atlantic blocking around our time for snow doesn't help at all. Only serves to hurt us at this point.

Sun is coming our bright here. Melting happening right now. Its too bad.

Smh they do this every time. So they have about 6" for the season. Still a ratter winter lol. I have about 8.5-9" for the season here in Bayside. Bleh.

Don't get me wrong, great storm today, but this is the problem with snow after mid Feb when it's not very cold. Melting happens quite quickly. Still, good storm though.

Melting will begin this afternoon I guess. I wonder if temps will rebound in that area.

5.3" here in Bayside, Queens. Still coming down quite well, should be over in 1 hour, and crack 6" maybe. Temps were just too warm to start off with or this would have been higher impact. Or maybe since it was only from 6 am to 12-1 pm. 7 hours is just too short of a time for significant totals

ICON is on an island with that one. That being said, weeklies still show a good pattern up until end of Feb, so many 10-13 more days, but after that, they’ve hasted the Spring pattern coming.

Yeah still moderate to heavy snow in Queens. I still think Central Park can make it to 5” before it ends in 2 hours. What do you think?

Storm is moving along rather quickly. Should be over by 1 here in NYC. Let’s hope that banding to the west pushes central park over the edge. I swear if the boroughs do great but Centeal park ends up with like 4” that’s just lmao and so typical of central park

As far as the rest of the long range goes, not much to write home about. CPC says the northeast and the west coast stay colder than normal, with average conditions for much of the nation, with warmer conditions for southern plains. Precipitation anomalies remain below average. Looking like cooler weather but drier weather. Not going to cut it for the rest of the month

Any obs from Manhattan. Looks like Queens and place east are going strong, and the Bronx and areas north are ripping as well.

Still going strong here in Bayside. Soon we'll be up to 4" if not already there. Hoping Manhattan got out of their dry slot.

Wonder how Manhattan is doing. Unfortunately, that's all that matters when it comes to official amounts in NYC. Snow hasn't let up here in Queens.

Just around 3" here in Bayside so far. Been 2 hours since Central Park measured 1.5". Radar would have me believe that we're in light snow but its still heavy here. Come down like cottonballs. Northeast NJ is definitely getting subsidence though.

Where the heaviest snow sets up, expect subsidence on both sides of that. LI looks like it's going to be crushed, but I am a bit worried about what that will mean for NE NJ and NYC. Wonder if the heavy stuff over LI will pivot back west as the low moves out.

Looks like NYC is about to go through some sort of dry slot soon (or probably just light snow, considering how much moisture is in this storm.) A pocket of sinking air between heavier returns (indicated by yellows) moving into Long Island, and dark green over north and central NJ. Light green over northeast NJ heading towards NYC, we'll see if that's where the preliminary dry slot sets up.

I'd assume that's an indication of less heavy or moderate snow moving through the area. Tends to look darker outside when snow is heavy. We should keep watching the obs from east PA, should be wrapping up there pretty quickly.

I've noticed that storms tend to come in quicker and leave quicker than expected. Yesterday, most model depictions had snow until around 3 pm for today. Heard some sleet on and off last night, that was probably an indication of the storm coming in quicker

Once the storm intensifies a bit quicker, it should throw some precipitation back west again. But yes, this storm is moving quicker than expected, should end much quicker than thought yesterday.

Still snowing a good amount here in Bayside. Let's hope some of those yellow radar returns south of Long Island make its way into NYC. If it doesn't, then if it continues snowing at this rate, then 5-6" is a safe bet. Storm is chugging along real fast, might be over by 1 pm latest over here.