Krs4Lfe

Nothing here in north Queens. Just light flurries. Heavier stuff to our east and west. Subsidence over the boroughs and sleet nearing Staten Island

Snow came down pretty moderately before. Now nothing is falling. Must have been an initial band. Hope warm air doesn’t race in too fast

Wow 6-12 for west Chester and over to Long Island. DT lowered NYC to 3-6” and he’s usually bullish.

That’s pretty early I think, those places were supposed to thump for a few hours and then have mainly sleet or freezing rain for the rest of the night, but I didn’t think they would have sleet so early

I call baloney on that. Last storm was definitely 4” for most of us and so was 2/13/24, most of city had 4-6”. For what it’s worth, south Queens, Brooklyn; and Staten Island had 6-8” from the 2/17/24 snowstorm but I know that heavy band didn’t reach Central Park. But the other 2 storms reached 4”, they just don’t measure properly

NWS Mount Holly is rightfully bearish imo in Central and northern New Jersey. It's the time for nowcasting, so we'll be watching that sleet line move in real time, but I'm surprised NWS New York has 8" for Central Park out of this. Just not a typical situation

6-9" in NYC according to NWS. But considering NWS was forecasting 1" for Tuesday morning white rain, I think that's a bit too bullish

Yeah overall it has a much lesser-intensity snow band than the other models which is why it's been showing consistently lower snow totals than the other models. Verbatim, this would be a big bust for those south of NYC

That would make the most sense. Most of the models have 6+ in NYC, but Euro has been consistent on around 5" or so. Mainly because the heaviest band will be farther to the north and may put us in a subsistence zone where we sleet or dry slot for a while. It really comes down to the initial thump of snow. If that sets up near NYC, would be hard to get under 6". But if we start sleeting, then it'll probably be under 5."

Temperatures around 50 on Monday with some rain showers. Then we get real Cold heading towards new years

Yeah GFS caved on this one big time from Philly to central NJ. Last run has Central NJ with almost all sleet. Looks like south of NYC is the cutoff zone. This thing wraps up pretty quickly too, should be finished by 4 AM.

But we haven't had had decent snow in March since 2019. 2010s were great for March snow. Ever since then, it's been non-existent. With such a fast Pacific jet, not only do you have more warmups when Pacific air floods CONUS, you don't have the same possibility of amplified solutions like we had in the 2010s.

Accuweather only has 3-6" for most of us, with the 6-12" reserved for interior upstate New York

Yeah even Central park had over 3” with that one. Lots of 3-5” across the island. NAM usually sniffs out the warm nose pretty well but it can overdo it at times

Yeah that was an insane 6 week period from late December through early February was insane. Became quite warm after that though. Hopefully we get a KU in January if that’s gonna be the case. Would definitely need some Atlantic blocking to slow thungs down though

How about for NYC

It’s interesting became the GFS isn’t responding with a change in snow totals for most of us. The low is farther north but the sleet doesn’t get further north. You’d think with a low that far north, the sleet would get past NYC. Maybe GFS is hinting at the snow being heavy enough to resist that mid level mixing.

Still have to hope for a shakeup in the pacific. Not easy to get snowstorms when you have a huge ridge over central US. Move that ridge out by extending pacific jet and then we can get some real storms to move across CONUS. Time it with an injection of cold air and bingo !

Probably eyeing that warm nose as the low rushes into north Pa and Upstate New York. Would be all frozen precip for almost all of us, but a lot more sleet than it’s been showing

Too bad this snow (or sleet?) won’t last for long. Should melt within a few days, similar to the last one we had 2 weeks ago here

And in storms like this, the heaviest band creates a subsidence zone to the north and south of the band where there is usually poorer snow growth and weak snow rates. I think the northern extent of this storm is likely further north than most models are saying. I’m not saying that necessarily translates to a bust for the NYC metro, but I can see lots of sleet south of that heaviest band (wherever that band sets up)

One of my first weather memories ever was 15 years ago today. Young and in elementary school, I had many other hobbies except for weather. But my parents would watch evening news on Channel 1 (back when time Warner was a thing) and we all saw the bulletin about a blizzard warning for 12/26/10, for 12-18” (which would be increased even further the next day). Parents said they would do a quick run to the grocery store just in case things got too bad over the next few days, and referenced the 1996 blizzard as the reason for their precaution. I didn’t track the storm but I remember it being very windy, very cold; and the 20” of snow when waking up on 12/27. I eventually picked up weather as a hobby in August 2011 during Irene, but aside from run of the mill thunderstorms; the 12/26/10 blizzard was the first time weather became somewhat of an interest to me. If only I could have tracked it in real time

Global models tend to Not do as well with warm mid level temperatures. We’ll see what the NAM says in a few hours, but these storms are known for producing sleet even far inland. Global models were quite warm with Friday’s event, almost all of them eaying around 2” for NYC but we were about 3-4 degrees too warm for that. That being said, it’s almost go time, so I don’t think global models should be looked at as much as the lesser models

NAM will be vindicated on this one. Happens every time

NY Metro Weather has NYC as 3-5”. Rest have a general 5-8.” They seem to think we will thump then sleet rest of the night