Krs4Lfe

Absolutely. Short range models like the NAM have a knack for noticing this stuff. And it wouldn’t really be a shock for a SWFE to be mainly sleet for our area, would it? That’s how it usually goes

That model appears to be on an island right now in regards to that idea. But what is good to see is that there isn’t much of a warmup after Christmas aside from Monday-Tuesday. Miraculous how warm CONUS has been but we evaded most of it. Looks like the cold reloads after the new year. Models backed off on that a bit idea but I think it’s just noise for now

Hell with the way they are measuring, they will end up with only 4 to 5. NWS is quite bullish with this I must say. At least the Northward trend appears to have stopped for now

A coupled SPV is the last thing we will need. That usually allows the Arctic and northern zones to remain frigid but generally, like 2020 winter, doesn’t allow for any cold air to spill over into the US . Hopefully that doesn’t happen.

Over the past few weeks, I’ve talked about how we will need whole scale changes in order to move that death ridge out of the central US and move it briefly over the east and then the pattered can start to reset with a PNA building over the western US, which will lead to heights falling across the east. We have certainly had the cold this winter and we will have more storms too once that PNA establishes itself. With such a large ridge over the central US it’s hard to have much storms aside from the northern stream can produce. Having that PNA is our ticket to bigger when opportunities.

Yeah looks like a big sleeter south of NYC. A few more nudges north (not even including the storm will probably be under modeled as to the northern extent of the sleet because this is a SWFE yet) and sleet will probably be quite prevalent in NYC. I’d cut the totals from CNJ on south in half.

WOUDK probably be a safe bet to go with advisories for NYC on south for 3-6” of wet snow and sleet, and then warnings to the north and west for 6-8”. These bands usually get further north than expected anyway, just like the mix line does. I think Mount Holly will have to reduce totals for their area. I don’t see how Philly can get 5+” with all models showing a mainly sleet storm for them now

Can’t have too many north shifts or sleet will be up to NYC. Looks like an initial heavy thump regardless. Big sleet and ice storm south of there. Doesn’t look to be any rain unless you’re south of Philly

Let’s see what the other models have to say. There’s still nearly 2 days worth of north trends that are possible. Wouldn’t take much to put us on the wrong side of the track. Doubtful but not improbable

Beware of the north moving snow band. I still maintain my call that I expect mixing up through NYC. It’s a hallmark of these types of storms, hard to bet against it

Yeah the low can still be not too far north but we all get sleet instead of snow because of that mid level warmth. Southwest flow event storms like these tend to have more mid level warmth than expected. Been countless instances of storms with this track (not just in 2020s but 2010s as well), where the precip is delayed and then we have mainly sleet from the onset and the totals end up being cut in half of What was originally expected

Absolutely not. A big hit would be 6-8+”. 4” snowfalls happen on average a few times a year. This decade has been filled with ratters though so that skews our mindset. That being said, if central park measured properly, they would have had 4” in the last storm along with the February 2024 storm. They just don’t measure properly

Big decrease in snow totals by the NBM. Models feeling the big block to the north likely shedding the storm a bit. If we can get a big thump before the warm nose in the middle atmosphere, it’ll still allow for 3-6”. Let’s hope the north trend doesn’t continue too much or we’ll be sleeting. These heavy bands usually set up shop further north than expected. Id Expect that trend isn’t done yet

NYC has had warning level snow since 1/19/22. Been almost 4 years. We did have a warning in February 2024, but it fell just short of warning level snow. (5.5+”) at the major measuring sites. So in that respect; we’re nearly tied for that 1996 to 2000 record.

We had one last February for 3-6” of snow, sleet, and ZR mix. But then it was downgraded to winter weather advisory with only 2-4” of snow and mix. Last winter storm warning was February 2024, for 5-8” of snow. We got 3-6” but most surrounding areas had 5-8”+. None in 2023, and then of course we had the 8-12” blizzard on 1/29/22. Four winter storm warnings in 2021 season. That was the last good winter in NYC

Yeah it hasn't waffled around at all over the past 48+ hours or so. Only thing holding back higher snow totals is the speed. This thing is really hauling. In and out in about 8 hours or so. So yeah 3-6" is a good bet

Reminds me of the 2/17/24 storm (I think that was the date?) where the heaviest snows were modeled to be near Philly, but even Staten Island and south queens got 6+ with central NJ getting up to 12”. These bands always move further north than expected. Probably wouldn’t want to be in the bullseye a few days out

It's funny you mention that because they used to be really adherent to their naming criteria for mot years, but ever since last year, they let some storms slide without naming them lol. Usually, their criteria is 2 million people or more would have to be under a winter storm warning. But last two storms had well over that amount and they didn't do it, so maybe they changed their criteria?

Steve D from NYNJPA weather says to watch 12/31-1/1 for a potential storm around that time

Absolutely. The models were too cold by at least a few degrees for the storm yesterday. That made much of the coastal plane and immediate New York City Metro area with no accumulation at all. For the last storm two weeks ago, we know the models once again we’re too cold by at least a few degrees in New York City, so even though this surrounding areas had a significant snowfall, New York City was limited to only 3 to 6 inches. I would not be surprised if the cold air is once again being over estimated with this storm, and we know that the north trend probably hasn’t stopped either. I’d expect a significant amount of sleet and mixing up past New York City.

Yeah there were 2 events in February 2019 where the precipitation waw delayed by hours and all we ended up with was like 2” of snow/sleet from each one as opposed to the 3-5” expected . By the time the snow came, it shortly went over to sleet. This is increasingly reminding me of those because I’m sure the north trend isn’t done either

This reminds me of a winter storm we had last February. All of NYC and LI was under winter storm watch for 4-6” of snow, sleet, and ZR. We were downgraded to winter weather advisory, because only 2-4” fell in the boroughs because of a lot of sleet. Most of Long Island did better, and the either west you went, the more mixing you ran into. Was a solid ice storm for Philly up towards Newark. Cold temps ahead of that storm too, but lots of mid level warmth

Yeah the 12z was pretty far north with mainly rain for most of. That’s a very sharp cutoff though south of NYC. Most models were at least a few degrees too cold with today’s event. I wonder how that affects the next one

Who else remembers the 1/3/14 (I think that was the date) blizzard? I must say That was probably the coldest snowstorm I have ever experienced here in NYC. Temps in the teens throughout and near blizzard conditions. 7-10” of fluff. Actual blizzard conditions further north and east. 1/29/22 was also very cold. Temperatures in low 20s and upper teens for whole storm. I’m surprised Queens wasn’t included in Long Island’s blizzard warning, I think it actually verified here as well. Last blizzard warning was almost 9 years ago so we are definitely overdue. And that one busted, it was 3/14/17 storm. Instead of the 12-18+”, we ended up sleeting half the day and got 7-10” instead. 1/4/18 actually verified as a blizzard though, even all the way to Newark. That was a great bust in the positive direction. 3-6” expected the evening before the storm. Then winter storm warning for 5-8”, but it ended up being a 9-13” blizzard for NYC. Very cold storm also, and the windiest blizzard I’ve seen aside from 12/26/10

Seems to be a very tenuous situation setting up. This storm is relatively weak and will run into strong high pressure. Due to the storms weakness, it can't penetrate the high pressure and becomes a bit shredded before moving into New England. However, there’s enough cold air in place for at least a few inches of snow. This would be more significant if it was moving slowly but there’s no blocking in North Atlantic so this thing is hauling pretty quickly and isn’t really strong enough for huge rates anyway.