Krs4Lfe

Around 2" so far here in Bayside, Queens. Heavy snow, and breezy as well. Not anything near blizzard conditions, but it's making for a pretty scene. Been two years since this. We've missed it.

Light rain here in Queens. Let’s see how many hours this last for before transitioning

Big move on the weeklies, showing above normal temps 2-3 weeks from now. Looks like we’ll have a quick transition to spring after this wintry week coming up. Still shocks me how the long range is almost void of any snow for much of CONUS for the next few weeks. Even in abysmal winters of 2012,2020,2023, at least someone was getting the goods. This is just downright strange, like a winter without a winter (save for a couple weeks in January). Colder conditions look likely for the west, which could lead to some snow there over the next few weeks, but holy moly has this been an abrupt change in models for the long range.

Same here. Point click forecast from NWS has 5-9" in north Queens. Only 4-6" in Manhattan, Staten Island, and south Brooklyn, south Queens, as far as point click forecasts go

Indeed, I will say this is my first time tracking a storm in real time on this forum. I've been a lurker on here since Spring 2022, but there wasn't enough of a winter threat to track in real time (at least for my area), and it's been pretty fun to track this for the past 4-5 days with all of you. I've lurked on some other weather forum sites (not part of AmericanWx) as well, but thankfully, this site seems to be the most informative one in times like this (without endless hypecast on the other forum), and probably the most accurate site overall.

That's probably all from the storm tomorrow. In the more immediate short term after that, looks like temps are around normal for the foreseeable future, but temps in 40s (as we head towards that time of year), aren't going to cut it, as far as snow prospects go. Looks like the western ridge pulls back a bit, with a trough in the Central US that won't work for most of this region.

Let's hope we can all capitalize on this threat on Tuesday, Checked out some of the 18z model runs, nothing to speak of coming down the pike after Tuesday. Looks high and dry

As we know, a positively tilted trough doesn't allow the storm to ride up the coast which would push the boundary layer further south and therefore, the risk for snow as well

Interestingly enough (and we may have to go back into our memories for this one), this storm is behaving somewhat opposite of the 3/8-3/9? (might not be exact date) storm in 2019. The first signs of that one coming far north and mixing significantly in NYC and the surrounding areas was the storminess in the south the day of and day prior to the event. The latent heat released by the severe outbreak pushed the storm further north, similar to what we see with tropical cyclone steering (moving towards the warmest waters if at all possible.) The severe storm outbreak today didn't appear to materialize, and if that trend continues through tomorrow, that could definitely be a result of a more positively tilted trough.

Homenuk on twitter says if the trend continues, there might be significant changes to storm forecast. Even still, we know that north and west trends in the last hours leading up to storms are real, so ideally, we would want this to trend as far south as possible, to counter the north/west trend that we'll probably see tomorrow night.

I would issue a word of caution to everyone living in the NYC metro area and down to the coast while viewing the NAM and HRRR. Even if that very heavy snow verifies, it would take several hours of that to accumulate considering it's not a nighttime storm, temperatures will be starting off in the upper 30s, and at its coldest, we're likely to get down to around 34. Accumulation, even if the snow is that heavy and persistent, would still only lead to accumulations on vegetation and colder surfaces. I wouldn't expect much in the way of road impacts

Once we saw the north trend yesterday, it became apparent it wouldn’t stop. With a more amped up storm, and lessening confluence, this northward trend will likely continue. Not to mention the warmth leading up to the storm which would cut back on totals anyway. Not expecting more than an inch of slush here anyway.

Even still, taking the latest GFS verbatim, that’s some pretty heavy snowfall at around 33 degrees or so. Accuweather calling for about an inch or so. Now if the storm trends more north, then all bets are off. But verbatim, that looks like some pretty heavy snow.

That’s not a bad look. 32 line is right near NYC, and there’s heavy precipitation during that time.

I have to say, one thing that does perplex me are the official forecasts (NWS, TWC, and the cable weather news networks) calling for almost nothing here in NYC. Over the last 24-36 hours, almost every model run has shown 5+ for NYC. I wonder what their rationale is. Maybe the north trend will continue, or lack of cold air leading up to the storm? Seems to be a big disconnect between the model data and the humans that are making the forecast.

Again, and this can be said numerous times over. When winter is almost non-existent for most of the nation, it's harder for there to be any sustained cold, let alone snow, over here in NYC and for many in the region. The source airmass continues to be horrible, and two PAC extensions (one during December), and one during late jan- mid feb, are arguable the worst times to have torches across CONUS. That's why snowpack is near record low, and why almost no where outside of mountains has seen significant snowfall this winter (outside of a brief pattern in early-mid January). Until that changes, there's not much to separate 2024 from joining the ranks of 2012, 2020, 2023 as ratter winters.

For many in the NYC metro, its a heavily mixing scenario. Looking deeper into the storm configuration, the confluence appears to pressing less over the past few runs, which is what leads to less snow and more mixing for the area. Without significant high pressure press from southeast Canada (where we would see our confluence pushing down), then this is only the beginning of the north trend, not the end of it. And if it's only the beginning... then we know what happens next.

I'm not sure how much we realize that this winter has been one of the mildest on record for CONUS. 2012, 2020, and 2023, despite having similar impacts in our region, had much more elsewhere. I have never seen this level of warmth and lack of snow across the country. Aside from a 2.5 week period in early- late January, winter has been all but absent for this entire season. The Pac jet torched CONUS in December, and the jet extension did that yet again for late Jan and early Feb. December is usually quite active across the northern tier, and late Jan- mid Feb is peak climo for most of CONUS. During these two critical periods, winter almost never came. That can be evident even by The Weather Channel's automatic storm naming mechanism. When 2+ million people are under winter storm warning/blizzard warning/ice storm warning, a winter storm becomes named. There have only been 11 of those since November, a record low. 2022 held the previous record with only 12 of those (made it up to the L storm around this time in Feb 2022). Uncharted territory here, and we're all still seeing the consequences of it.

That's how you know the storm is likelier to shift north, or at the very least, unlikely to see the confluence pushing further south.

Absolutely. Even if all the changes haven't been reflected in the surface yet, looking at the upper levels, when there is more phasing, there will be further north movement.

Only with further push of confluence and maybe the shortwave digging more back in the southwest. Other than that, the north trend has only begun, I'd think.

For now, that's not a bad place to have it, but ideally, we'd like to see some more confluence pushing down, as we know these storms tend to have a north and west trend leading up to impact. I'd expect this trend to continue.

Heaviest precip centered around NYC metro and CT for early Tuesday afternoon. That being said, it's a bit warm for the area, verbatim at least. That 32 line is quite north.

One thing to keep in mind is that oftentimes when we see western ridging and eastern troughing showing up (blues over our area), we tend to get excited. But those blues merely indicate colder than average, and oftentimes, stormier than average. As we've seen this winter and last winter, without proper cold air, you can have a few day average of blue contours, without there being snowfall in the region. So let's not get *too* excited with these depictions, as it can still lead to a cold rain, considering how much we're lacking snow and cold across CONUS.

I usually keep my thoughts for long range, but I figured since I'm a bit new at posting, I'll make one for this upcoming storm. As far as the threat for this storm goes, it is increasingly likely that there will be an at least a moderate-level storm for most of the region. What we would want to see more of is confluence pushing down, and separation of the northern stream and the southern stream. Ideally, if we had cold air in place, we would want a more amped solution and phasing between the northern stream and southern stream, but considering its a very warm weekend coming up, cold air will be scarce for this storm. Therefore, in order to get snow from the NYC-boston corridor, (where snow has been almost non-existent since Feb 2022), a further push of confluence would be the best scenario (as it's likely we see a last minute northwest trend anyway, as we almost always do).