Krs4Lfe

Once the block hooks up with the southeast Ridge, like it’s been doing more often than not over the past few years that will keep most of the east US warm. The southeast Ridge is almost always under modeled so I’m not sure it’s a good look.

The scary thing to see is that for the foreseeable future, including into early January, most of the cold is bottled up in Canada and New England. While cold air can be brought down by a storm, CONUS will be literally almost entirely void of snow and cold through early January. This prime time for building snowpack up north and west which can held cool down some temperatures. At some point that ridge will have to roll over and we'll take that warmth on the chin. It would be preferable to have some storminess and cold to ring in the New Year

That has been my fear for most of this month. Fortunately, unlike December 2022 all of us actually saw snow this month and some of us saw significant snow. And this month has actually been much colder overall. However, I remember all the great model prognostications about what will be waiting for us in January only for January to come, and the rest of winter was a torch with only a few inches of snowfall. We should not discount the ability for nature to switch up a good pattern on a dime. What looks to be a very cold month this month could easily be the opposite next month.

That west coast trough crashing in after Christmas will lead to that massive and near record warm ridge over central US to eventually move towards east coast. Hopefully it’s transient, but Central and south US will really torch Christmas week

Yeah once that trough knocks into west coast, that ridge will roll over into the east coast. Looks like that would be closer to new years. Christmas could be record warm over parts of the plains. Yuck. Hopefully there’s a limit to the west coast troughs because those will keep knocking the ridge over and we can’t get a coastal storm with a pattern like that.

Well realistically speaking what are the odds that December is as cold as it is and January/February don’t torch. It’s hard to get a few colder than average months in a row these days

Looks like mild and dry throuhh end of the year. Large ridge over most of CONUS too. Doesn’t look like snow for anyone through end of the month

Oh ok so the amount they released yesterday after the storm was 2.9” but it appears there might have been a 4.4” measurement ?

Side note I don’t think the weather channel keeps up with all the winter storm naming anymore. Their long standing criteria is to name a winter storm if there are 2 million people under winter storm warnings. They did that a few times earlier this month but there’s been a few more since then and they didn’t name it. There were a few times last year that they did this too because I noticed that I there were winter storm warnings over a large population a few times without a winter storm name. They were very consistent between late 2012 (when they started) and throuhh 2024 but they seem to only name some of them since last year. This past one had winter storm warnings from Illinois through Philly/NJ for like 10 million people but no name. Most of the time the names are pretty stupid but I do think it’s a plus when you have a large storm, easier to track it that way imo.

I believe 4” is the proper mark for December La Niña . We still have another half of the month to go but either way doesn’t look like there’s anything on the horizon

Yep, same here in Bayside. Reached just about 6" on the dot around 11:40. Has compacted about 1 inch or so since then. Lots of 4-6" reports throughout the boroughs except a few pockets like CPK, LGA. But is is NYC's official measuring site so for all intents and purposes, when people look back on this storm in the future, they'll think we all only got 2-3" lol

Yeah this is the best event for most of us since Jan 2022, although many also saw similar totals with the 2/13/24 storm (I believe that was the date) that was a widespread 5-8" for most but similar to this storm, was a 3-5" for the boroughs because of UHI

I figured JFK would come in with a total of over 4". Most of the boroughs has anywhere from 4-6", with 3-4" more common only in Manhattan. Aside from LGA and CPK's notorious undermeasurement, this was a pretty good forecast for most of the area. In fact, most places overperformed just to our north, east, south, and west. Pretty much an overperformer for everyone except the boroughs because of UHI.

Most of the boroughs have 4-6", just CPK will probably have 3" so maybe this statistic can still be used as a benchmark for the rest of the season?

In Jan 2022, they recorded over that amount twice. I believe they recorded 9" for the early Jan storm (that was an overperformer, was expected to get 3-5", ended up with 5-9" across the city) and then late Jan storm was around 10" I believe

1 Pm we'll see the totals from the big 3 recording sites. I'll go with 4.5" JFK, 4" LGA, 3" Central Park

Awesome, similar amounts over here. Barring any strange measurements from the official measuring sites, we were all in line with what was expected. Good to see

Just light snow now, going to end in a few minutes, I'm sure. Becoming quite cold and blustery. Finished off with just about 6" here in Bayside (one of the colder and more elevated spots of Queens). Waiting for the final measurements from CPK, LGA, and JFK, but seems like the lowest amounts are around 3.5 in parts of Brooklyn, Manhattan, Bronx, but Staten Island Queens has widespread 5-6." Seems pretty in line with all forecasts. Nice bust in the good direction though for the suburbs, lots of 6-8 in southern Westchester, northeast and central NJ, and Suffolk County. NYC is surrounded by 6-8 lol, but too warm to start off in the boroughs, knocked us down to 3-6 (which was in line with forecasts).

you had a good band come through for a while, probably definitely near 4" now for you

2 inches on top of car after being cleared off around 830 this morning, and there were a few inches already on the car at that time. So we added about 2 inches in the past 3 hours. About to finish up here anyway, maybe an additional 0.1" by the time it wraps up

Wrapping up here in northern Queens, should be completely done within 30 minutes or so, just light snow now. Cleared off top of the car and windshield at 8:30, I see it covered now so will check soon to see how much has fallen over the past 3 hours

Probably a shredder look because the ridge is centered over CONUS. If we could get that ridge to go a bit further back over west US, we'd be in better shape, but that storm heading into the west coast will just force the ridge to roll over anyway

That would probably boost them to 3", considering ratios are likely closer to 10:1 now that temps are a few degrees colder than this morning. Do you know how much LE has fallen at LGA and JFK since then

You'll probably crack 4" by the time all is said and done. Will likely wrap up in an hour or so.

Yeah with the ever increasing urban heat island, CPK needs sub freezing temps in order for snow to actually accumulate. They lost the first few hours to white rain