Krs4Lfe

An encouraging sign to see is that it appears the pattern change is holding serve through time. This week, the pattern change has been indicated for around 2/13 or so, and so far, that look has held. Everything we’d want to see in a pattern change is there. Big spike in +PNA with a large western ridge, an eastern trough that is centered around Ohio River Valley and areas just eastward, heights building south of Greenland, and a funneling of cold air from the Hudson Bay Area (as indicated by blues extending from there down through the east coast). Does this mean that the pattern will produce? No. If anything, December 2022 taught us that, and for the NYC area, January 2024 just gave us a second lesson on that. But, it would be highly improbable that winter weather stays clear from the area during this pattern change. After all, 12/2022, and 1/2024 still had winter weather for our neighbors in this region, although NYC seems to be in a sort of a snow hole of sorts. In short, things are looking better for the area. Doesn’t mean they’ll produce, but with this pattern? It would be nearly impossible to see *nothing*.

The lack of winter weather across CONUS continues to amaze me. Last year, arguably one of the worst if not *the* worst for snow regionwide, other parts of the nation were doing well. In particular, from the west coast to the upper Midwest. Even in 2020, most of the northern tier was doing better. Outside of 3 weeks in January, our PAC dominated winter has led to very little snow and even smaller snowpack/ sustained cold temperatures across the nation. Aside from a few areas, this ranks even lower than 202, 2012, 2023 with nationwide snow averages. The PAC jet in December did us all in for that month, and it appears the next 2 weeks will be rather quiet nationwide. Hard pressed to find such little winter activity this winter across the nation. Take this info as you will….

Well that's a decent look for a few reasons. Let's break down the positives 1. Jet streaming across the pacific ends up breaking off, with storminess/moisture moving through north Mexico 2. That storminess takes on a STJ look, with storminess accompanying that jet streak across the south and mid-atlantic, which will obviously lead to an active weather pattern of some sorts 3. Ridging over west coast (+PNA) must lead to a trough on the downside of that, which could get caught up in the jet streak 4. There's some low pressure around Newfoundland, and high pressure ridging south of Greenland, all of which could help lead to a "blockier" scenario Let's break down the negatives 1. The western ridge isn't in the most ideal position, with the highest anomalies being just offshore the west coast 2. High pressure isn't anchored in southeast Canada, which is arguably the best spot to reinforce cold air to meet up with this stormy look 3. Due to the ridge axis being right off the west coast, the trough would likely be over central US, giving a chance for heights to rise along east coast. That would help us avoid suppression, but *could* lead to some inland/coastal huggers if this look were to verify

It appears that could display cold air downwards from where it's being bottle up right now (Alaska, as they're having a record good winter for those parts.) Now, I don't believe it would necessarily lead to most of us posters reaching average snowfall for this winter, it can definitely lead to increased storminess. Those oranges showing up near south Greenland indicate there might be some north atlantic blocking as well, which could finally slow down our storms (our storms have been pretty quick moving this winter). Those reds showing up over east Asia and Russia would definitely displace cold temperatures. It looks like that cold air will be displaced over Europe (as displayed by the blues over the continent), but there's a chance some of that from the arctic sneaks down onto CONUS as well. Only potential issue with this is that it could take a little while for the cold air to bleed east, as indicated by the blues in the west, but a still present Southeast ridge