Krs4Lfe

https://x.com/webberweather/status/2013634552833425732

He's a climatologist and meteorologist, works at a lab over in New Mexico somewhere. He's pretty good at the pattern recognition and climatology stuff. But he also said the weekend storm wouldn't trend west either. So he has his moments

The breakdown of warm February being predicted on the weeklies after a colder second half of January is astonishing. Obviously, good looking patterns (ie, colder anomalies and ample precipitation) don't always translate to snowstorms (such as December 2022, February 2025 etc), but this is a good look to see

This upcoming storm might be exactly what the south and central US needs. Winter never started in those parts, been very warm and dry. A storm like this, absent a huge shift to the north, would put Texas through the lower Mid Atlantic at average to above average snowfall. That's their ticker to a winter redemption, especially because lower and central Mid Atlantic is running very below average with snowfall. And it looks quite cold east of the Rockies for most of february as well.

The coldest snowstorm I think I’ve ever witnessed was 1/3/14 (I believe that was the exact date but I’m not sure). 7-10 in NYC. Blizzard out east and up north. Teens for the entire storm, temps dropped into single digits just as snow stopped. Similar to 1/29/22, and 1/4/18. temps were in teens most of storm. That’s hard to pull off over here. Even most of our bigger storms like 2/1/21 and 1/23/16 were in 20s to low 30s.

ICON shows crippling ice across mid south and over towards Texas, with nearly feet of snowfall to the north of it from southern plains through mid Atlantic. Run isn’t finished but the HP is just sitting over our area. I doubt it’ll be able to penetrate

Weather channel named this one Winter Storm Fern. One of latest F named winter storms aside from last winter. They’re already attaching the buzz words to it on social media

I think the big events died with the 2021 winter. Always seems to be cutter, suppression; southern slider etc. no reason to think this will be any different

Just wait for this storm to miss south; the next one to miss too far to the east, and then we’re in February and typical La Niña fashion we torch. I’m joking. Kind of

Usually La Nina torch by the time March comes, and the SER starts to flex in February which usually makes the east warm. Considering this winter has followed the path of a canonical La Niña, I would assume after this big cold period we’d have some big time warm coming, and with some staying power too

This winter is nothing like 2013-2014 or 2014-2015. We hear comparisons to those winters almost every year. Those there Nearly countrywide blockbuster winters. Aside from the Midwest and northeast, winter never arrived this year for most of the US. Warm and dry as far as eye can see.

That is such a BS measurement. Almost all the other places in the boroughs measured in between 1.5 to 3 inches today, a combination of both the snow from the morning and from the evening. If they measured properly, they would have had more than 1 inch. Their measurement problems have become so exacerbated since the start of the decade. They’ve consistently been, on average like 1-2” less than nearby areas in every storm, and it adds up. They should either measure somewhere else in the park or maybe they should measure in Riverside park on the west side where it’s more expansive. We’ve seen this time and again now.

So which model did best with this. Euro, ICON, UKMET had nothing until 2 days ago. It was just GFS and the GFs-AI and Euro-AI that had something for most of the week, but proved to be too bullish.

ICON is very flat for next weekend. Looks like HP is quite strong nearby and causes suppression. I’m not saying that the suppression will be similar to last winter, where several storms in January and February never materialized up here because of how strong the high pressure and cold air was, but it’s something to keep in mind.

2025-2026 winter now matches 2024-2025 winter for only 5 named winter storms by the weather channel thus far. Tied for record low number; highlighting the inactivity across the US aside from Midwest and northeast. They’ve been naming since 2012-2013 winter.

Two days ago I heard about a little bit of snow or rain on Thursday. ICON model was showing it and Euro too. Haven’t seen anything about it since then. I assume that’s not the case anymore?

As snow ends now, we had around 0.7" earlier, and around 1.7" tonight. So that's a total of 2.4". With the 1.1" yesterday, that's 3.5" for the weekend. I wasn't expecting anything yesterday so I guess that makes up for today's bust. Around 13.5" for the season (1 inch shy of last winter's final total.)

Dry slot and then poor snow growth and marginal temps at best. Better than the storm being offshore like most models had it Thursday night, but not as good as model depictions from yesterday, which was a solid 3-5" for the area.

Pathetic. We had snow grains and light white rain until around 4:30 or 5 PM. Snow growth between 7 and 8:30 was great though, and should push them up to 2" total. Definitely not what I was expecting. Seemed like 3-5" was a good bet, but I had a feeling when that dry slot came through and snow growth was poor after that. Should be completely over by 9:30. Most of NYC and LI busting low. Yesterday was a nice surprise though, so there's that. I assume the 0.9" doesn't include the 0.5" from earlier?

Back edge rapidly heading into West NJ. Heavy snow just south of NYC but doesn’t want to push up.

Moderate snow here, not great snow growth. Best dynamics are south and east. Jersey shore and east end will end up with more than us. Should be over at 9 PM. Doubt we get more than 2”. At least we had a positive bust yesterday to offset this one

Moderate snow. Sticking now here in Bayside. I think it took too long though. 2” is probably a safe bet when all is said and done, including the 0.5-1” we had earlier. Simply too warm for most of the storm

None. Most models have an additional 2" for NYC. Just light snow here, as it's been on and off for the past 4 hours or so with minimal accumulation. Mainly white rain along the shoreline too. Would take heavy snow in order to overperform the 2-4" that was expected

Light snow in Bayside again. Been on and off like this for the past few hours. Radar echoes look better right off the jersey shore. If we get those, then we'll hit our 2-4" target.

Their latest forecast map has central Park at 4.4 when all is said and done