Krs4Lfe

Yeah, aside from the cool shot next week, looks like we become very warm through mid month, and then transient cool and warm for rest of November. Once again, akin to November 2024 and November 2023, lack of snow cover and cold across Canada and northern tier is making it harder for late fall and early winter to be cold and wintry for most of us. There have been plenty of years where we didn't have cold and winter weather in the early season, but up north or out west, they did. Past 2 years have been pretty much void of late fall/early winter cold and snow across most of CONUS and Canada. I'd expect the models to correct a bit warmer due to this.

October 2021 had gusts to 50-60 mph in NYC, further out east. 100+ mph gusts in Cape Cod. That was wild. January 2022 blizzard had gusts to 35-40 (borderline blizzard in NYC), and gusts to 80s in east Mass. These events are pretty rare but they're pretty impactful when they happen.

If we can get this pattern to last into winter, it can funnel cold air on the backside of these storms which would allow cold air to be in place for the following storm (similar to the winter storm parade of Jan-Feb 2015 and Feb 2017.) one storm moves in after the other and it creates some blocking in Atlantic Canada and North Atlantic, funnels cold air down from Canada just in time for the next storm behind that. Been a while since we’ve seen that happen.

It's interesting because usually our strongest winds come during storms, this one will have almost no precip for our entire area. I remember Jan 2022, there was a gust to 60 in NYC from that storm that was the big blizzard in great lakes and appalachia but just one inch of snow to rain here and then strong winds and dry slot. Always cool to track high winds, but very few times we actually get high wind warning level winds (60+ mph). Early March 2018 was wild, 65 mph gusts over here. I can only think of a handful of 60+ (non severe and no tropical) events here in NYC over the past decade.

I would assume that gets knocked down to wind advisory. Usually the models are overblown with wind gusts *no pun intended*. Still, it's something interesting to track anyway.

Normally I would say it's not permanent because weather patterns change quite often. But with the background state of the climate, I think climate change has made the WestPac so warm (which enhances the PacJet and causes west coast storminess and only transient troughs in the east at best), that there's no turning back. I think more of us will come along to this idea towards the end of the decade if we continue to see lack of snow in the area. In the past, decades with low snowfall amounts could be attributed to periods of drier weather or transient year-to-year weather pattern changes. But since late 2010s, we've been in a generally low amount of snowfall (save for a few winters) because it's just too warm to snow.

The only problem is these cold shots are always outdone by the warmups. Even without a ridge over the northeast it seems like our base state is slightly above normal. Feels like it takes a lot to get some colder air lately

Looks like we get a shot of warmer air after that, but the average temps are becoming cooler this time of year now so above normal can still be in 50s by the time mid month comes.

I feel like we can start off with the base state when making predictions for early winter. Until that PacJet slows down and we can get bigger troughs moving into CONUS, I think early winter would be quite muted across CONUS similar to the very inactive (in the winter weather department) December 2023 and December 2024 and some of those same problems trickled down through the rest of those winters.

Yeah we're starting out warm too, with temps in the 60s for most of this year. And a fast PacJet will prevent any arctic air from being pulled from the north. That's why the models have showed colder air and wintry weather towards middle of month but in due time, that will likely be diminished due to lack of cold air at the same time the northern stream energy comes through.

More evidence towards why there is a lack of cold air in Canada. Any early season wintry weather would require an ideal storm track to tap into a cold air source, of which there is none to be found.

I don’t believe that’s where we would want all the storminess. That’ll keep knocking into west Canada and west coast and the ridge will keep rolling over. Not a good look to funnel in cold arctic air into CONUS, which is necessary for our snow chances.

I wonder what the observations will be like from east Newfoundland tomorrow night, and Saturday, looks like it’ll have just transitioned to a post-tropical, hurricane force low pressure by then.

Once we get some buildup of snow cover and less of a Pac extension, then we can get some colder and wintry weather across CONUS. Until then, I'd expect average to above average temps for most of CONUS.

Until we get that snowcover to build up (coupled with the jet extension over north Pacific) mild air will flood CONUS. No wintry weather in the future for CONUS until we get some cooler weather up north or some sort of strong low pressure traversing the nation that can draw down cold air (even that will be difficult as there's no cold air to our north). Warm and mild November incoming. And it's hard for that snow cover to just snap back up and grow rapidly without any cold storms moving across northern tier or Canada

There's almost no snow cover in Canada right now. Blowtorch fall they're having up there.

In essence, with all the pacific jet extensions (fueled by the gradient of cold air over Siberia and a record warm northwest Pacific basin), it is likely that we have quite the warm November on the way. One of the big problems over the past few years has been a slow start to snow cover across Canada and over the northern tier. That helps keep CONUS colder. Cold begets cold, and warm begets warm etc. Looks like another slow start to winter weather, similar to Fall 2023 and Fall 2024. Not good signs imo.

I must say, despite the unfortunate outcome for Jamaica, Cuba, Bahamas, and all others in Melissa's path, it has been a pleasure to advance my knowledge of cyclones with you all over the past week tracking this hurricane. What a wild ride it's been!

I’ll be honest, I don’t know what it is, but ever since 2019, we’ve only had 1 good winter here in NYC and we’ve had 3 near shut outs practically. I won’t try to speculate what it is. Especially when it comes to March being snowless since 2020. My understanding of weather is better than it used to be but long term climate is still pretty niche and hard to follow along with. But whatever it is, I think we all know deep down that it’s not going to get much better. I think the “winters” we’ve been having this decade is the new normal, and most good snow seasons are a thing of the past. It’s very hard to deny it. KUs are pretty much a thing of the past and with a warmer winter, what would normally be small snow events in the past are now marginal cold rain events for most of us. It’s easy to bet on a warm and less than average snowy winter at this point.

I was surprised at how high the water levels were in Bayside Queens, along little neck bay. Surveyed them around 4:30, and then around 7-8 during low tide. Even at low tide, the water was covering about 1/4th of the jetty along Bayside marina. Very rough waters out there, some gusts to 40 mph this evening. Just rainy and breezy away from the water, but along north Queens shoreline it’s a totally different story.

I'm getting stron Joaquin vibes from this one. Except Joaquin was strong when passing through the Bahamas, but then it stalled as it passed through Bahamas and then kicked out to see, but it's moisture flooded the Carolinas big time. With Humberto nearby, I think that would act as a mechanism to tug Imelda out to sea. However, with Joaquin, there was a trough heading through the east US and Joaquin stalled over Bahamas which allowed trough to arrive in time to bring it out to sea.

And most of the time in the 2000s and 2010s we were on the right side of the line. But since 2019, only 2021 and 2022 (for some of us) have been good winters. One day, I hope we can return to having a major snowstorm. It's been since 1/29/22 for a solid foot or so of snow in NYC. I miss that.

I don't post here often, mainly only during wintertime. But this post resonates. I feel that the 2000s and 2010s being record snowy was the final push before our winters became too warm to support above average snowfall. We had the right amount of cold air and moisture, the right balance, to allow for those amazing winters. But this decade, we've been in bad spots all around except 2021 and 2022 (for some posters.) And it doesn't seem to be getting any better either. Maybe one day we'll see a good winter again.

Climate change is taking away our snow and it will only get worse from here. We're simply becoming too warm for snow most of the time. I'd expect our snow averages of around 14-15" in the 2020s to continue from here on out and become less and less over time.

I'll take just one in general. Only 13" here this year, the average should be in upper 20" range. Abysmal