Krs4Lfe

They are probably favoring in the white rain due to warmer temperatures at the onset, which will lead to minimal accumulation in the urban zones of the tri state area. Either way, that should make for a solid 1-3” further inland

I'd assume the weeklies respond to the teleconnections that it forecasts. So when the teleconnections remain stuck in a moderate -PNA stage as opposed to approaching +PNA territory, that allows the weeklies to show a warm January, as they are currently showing at the moment. Still will likely require a big change in the pacific in order to force that omega ridge out of the Central US. As long as that persists (which has been the past week), most of the northeast (outside of northern new england) will struggle to remain cold.

Yeah I was surprised how warm it felt this morning, felt like Spring compared to the cold we've had recently. Webb seems to think we're in for a warm winter unless the pacific has a big shake up.

As per my previous posts, there are legitimate reasons why I believe this winter will not be conducive for snowfall. Doesn't mean "winter is over" or anything like that. But there are reasons as to why I believe that this winter might not be a good one, along with some thoughts on how the pattern can change. In the 2025-2026 ENSO page, I outlined those thoughts last night.

To be fair, December 2021 in December 2023 we’re quite warm and mild for much of the country which was not similar to this month because this month featured colder and sometimes well colder than average temperatures for the eastern third of the US and the northern tier. And of course there were several snow events as well, which is also unlike December 2021 and December 2023. January 20 22 and January 20 24 got off to a rather stormy star, however remain generally stormy and colder for most of the country (although the impact on our snow totals that season is debatable), there was still plenty of cold air and active weather traversing CONUS. My only point in saying this is that the pattern can truly flip on a dime, like it did in those two instances. However, much of the warm and mild conditions during December 2023 in December 2021, I believe, was due to a jet extension which flooded the country with mild Pacific air. This month, there is an omega Ridge over the central US, which might make the pattern flip a bit more delayed and a bit trickier because it will require whole scale changes in the pacific in order to knock that ridge down and allow some storms and cold air to come back across the US. That being said, unlike December 2021 in December 2023, our source region (Canada) remains quite cold and snowy, so anytime the polar vortex becomes a bit disturbed or a ridge forms over the Arctic, it should force the cold air from Canada down into the US. So maybe we will see a big pattern change like January 2022 in January 2024 hopefully

I would assume it would have to be moving pretty quickly in order for accumulations to be that low ?

Well I think we’re in a very sensitive spot. If it shifts too far north then it’s just rain showers. If it shifts too far south then it’ll probably get shredded even more. Not sure the cards are there for us for this one

I’ll be honest, maybe it’s just the pessimistic side of me, but I have 0 confidence in much snow at all this winter. After so many bad winters, I find it plausible that we can have almost a total shutout. I see a strengthening PV coming up after new years, and a -NAO block but no help on pacific side. Long range looks like hot garbage to me, at a time where we are prime for our most snow. Looks terrible

Definitely with the low heading north of the area. Would be white rain to start And then dry slot . And considering central park is notorious for under measurement, it would be like nothing ever fell

That winter will always live in infamy here in NYC. Cold December, but no snow, and then a torch for rest of the season, with only like 3" of snow in February and a dusting in March. Northern new england through great lakes and out west had a great season though. Lots of record snows across Great Lakes, Upper Midwest, and out west.

The warmth over Central US is very impressive, akin to the very warm Christmas we had here in December 2014 and December 2015. This is one of the few times where you would want a pacific jet extension to force storms into the west, which will roll the ridge through the east US and then maybe we can reset from there. But until that omega ridge subsides over Central US, CONUS is almost completely void of cold and snow. Horrendous

This would be the death knells for Winter 2025-2026. Prime time when temps are the coldest, and there is a trough in west Canada and a dip in the jet stream across west/central US, and a ridge over east US. And remember, this is a smoothed ensemble mean. Once we get closer to the date, it won't be as smoothed and the differences between the trough in the west and the ridge in the east would likely be much greater. While the -NAO continues to improve, all other teleconnections remain where we don't want it, including a deepening -PNA. Without help from the PNA and the pacific, the -NAO will be almost meaningless

Verbatim looks like a dry slot over NYC, maybe some light snow but poor antecedent conditions would probably result in white rain with no accumulation. Would likely be a few inches of snow through New England though

Northern queens, nyc

334,000 people across the northeast without power right now. It peaked this afternoon around 400,000. winds were quite impressive from this storm lots of reports of 60 mph winds across Queens and Brooklyn, with winds in between 60 to 70 mph across Nassau and Suffolk. Definitely needed a high wind warning for Long Island and probably one for Queens too. Definitely over performed, the national weather service forecast as of last night were winds only up to 45 mph gusts today.

I remember anytime you saw a colder than normal winter month in the 2010s, there would be snow accompanying it, and lots of it. Yet somehow since 2019, each colder than normal winter month has been a suppressive and/or cutter pattern everytime we can actually get a storm near the region. Seems like bad luck from a far, but when digging deeper, could be CC related. Probably is

Like I was saying, only a matter of time before the torch reached the northeast. No snow or cold to be seen throuhh early January. We risk a January 2020 and January 2023 repeat imo. Save this

The pattern regression is quite impressive. There's no more being on the fence about that, the warm air will be pushing through this region and will likely result in the last 10 days of december being a few degrees above normal. Despite the -NAO, there's no opportunity for snow because no snow storms can form due to the coast to coast torch across CONUS. This is one of the quickest pattern regressions I've ever seen. All the calls for renewed cold air after this "brief" warmup will likely be very inaccurate. It'll take some pacific jet extension to shake this up, or there's a January 2020 and January 2023 repeat coming right up

The projected cold weather between Christmas and new years is quickly slipping away. Hopefully we can get a pattern reset in early January akin to January 2024 because that shook things up quite a bit and prevented a January-March 2023 repeat with an eastern ridge. Something will have to give at some point, or that’s quite the headfake the models were throwing at us

It just seems like the central US ridge has strengthened as we get closer to the date. Around a week ago, we knew there would be warmth across much of conus. But this record breaking warmth for much of south and central US appears to have creeped up on us, and the duration of it seems to extend past Christmas now. I think we’ll need a jet extension (I know how much we hate those) to push storminess ashore and get some storms moving throuhh CONUS. I’d rather take my chances with stormy weather and hope there’s a well timed cold air injection than to have wall to wall torch with the only winter weather being north of the border. Doesn’t get much worse than this

With the PNA dipping even further negative, it’s likely that trough will persist, and there will be some ridge either over central US or east US. Even if northeast remains colder than average, with the rest of the country torching, there’s no snowstorm that can make its way over here. Unironically; the winter weather across CONUS this month could be the most significant of this entire winter.

This torch is very impressive and will result in many places in south where the anomalies have been ip to -8 so far to average near normal. The only place that will remain relatively average through end of the month is the northeast. Rest of US is in a big torch and the worst part is it doesn’t show signs of changing either. It will be impossible, mark my words, impossible, to get snow in this area with such warmth across CONUS. Any storm that comes into the west coast will be too warm like this past one, with snow confined to the far northern tier. And side from an occasional rain storm, most of the country will remain dry. Even reminiscent of Winter 2020 in that respect, where no one outside of the western 1/4th of country had much snow. And this season, even they don’t have any snow. This is also similar to mid December 2023 through early January 2024, where there was a coast to coast torch. One week into January 2024, that all changes though. However, this appears to be a very persistent pattern that will last into the forseeable future.

There’s just not enough cold air out west so the storm is crashing into the West Coast are mainly just rain. And until that ridge over the central US abates, snow, and cold will be absent for the entire country with the exception of the northeast that will remain chilly, but still no snow. Hopefully this pattern can shake up after the new year, but it looks like this pattern might stick around for a bit.

I was saying in 2023 they had a banner year out there because of the -PNA while we torched. I was saying that because If the -PNA persists this year, we might have a 2023 repeat

I think the ridge over the central US is just too powerful and at some point the negative PNA will force storms into the West Coast, causing the ridge to roll over into the east. By then ,the ridge will be less powerful but still give us above normal temperatures and dryer conditions