Krs4Lfe
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Everything posted by Krs4Lfe
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Yeah, it's been incredibly warm and dry across West and Plains this "winter." The only wintry weather has been from North Dakota through Midwest to Northeast. We are all falling behind average snow. Very mild January thus far for entire US
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Euro has nothing for Sunday. So here's where we are: GFS has big storm (won't happen) CMC has a light-moderate event UKMET has a light event ICON has a light-moderate event Either way, almost all models have light snow on Saturday. But the antecedent airmass is very warm so I'd only expect accumulation inland.
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UK shows nothing. GFS shows a bomb. CMC has a light-moderate event. Icon has a light-moderate event. We'll see what Euro says
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Looks nice and cold in the long range. CMC and GFS have something around the 22nd, looks like a SWFE which would favor New England of course.
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Yes and no. The trough needs to be negative in order to get this further west. If it's not negative, it's not coming further west with a positive trough.
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Let's see what GFS and CMC have for the 22nd and beyond. Last night was obviously a weenie run, but the pattern would indicate there would probably be something within that timeframe
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I'm still waiting for the one on 1/7 and the pattern change to colder weather on 1/11
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GFS has a classic arctic boundary storm, snow riding up from Deep South through east coast, and intensifying off coast of Mid Atlantic. Weenie run
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GFS has light snow Saturday morning, temps around freezing, but quick moving and likely no accumulation.
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ICON is most similar to Euro. Has moderate snowfall just offshore. Started to look better early on but the trough is still positively tilted. With a positive tilt, it's limited in how far west it can get
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Models really lost the storm signal around the 24th big time. They were honking on it yesterday but now…. Nothing. I’m sure something will reappear at some point because the pattern is conducive. But wow what a change in a 6 hour model run period !
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Can’t ask for a better look than the one setting up after the 1/16 cold front moves through. Lots of blocking, Greenland ridging, arctic ridging and persistent troughs swinging throuhh Centeal and east US. Unfortunately we’ve seen similar patterns in Feb 2025, Dec 2022 that have not performed. But on the flip side, we’ve seen patterns like that in Feb 2021, Feb 2015 that did perform. Seems like an equal chance at either one, pick your own adventure !
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Yeah even with GFS digging bias, it’s still positive throuhh because of the fast flow. I think if we were to get anything, you’d need rapid changes. It’s still 4 days away but still. Thungs are trending closer but it’s far from good enough
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The GFS loves to dig and amplify stuff thouhh. Look what it did January 2025 and what it did for 1/16. It’s a known bias. Wouldn’t put any credence into it
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AI GFS showing a storm offshore, moderate precipitation for Sunday during afternoon and evening. You want more than ICON and AI GFS in your corner thouhh or you end up with a 1/16 repeat
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Was just about to say that Icon has white rain for us on Sunday with some moderate snow inland. Also, we might catch a few snow showers Thursday evening during the anafront system.
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I’m surprised at how long this thaw is. Really defined the first half of the month aside from the first 6 days that were average or well below average. Tomorrow is the 14th and we’ll still be 10 degrees above average. At this point it’s not a thaw, it’s a running theme that CONUS has been quite warm this month
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GFS OP has the storm just offshore for Sunday. It made the trough sharper so it’s closer
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AI GFS is closer with Sunday and looks much colder. But after what the GFS did with our snow/rain showers on Thursday and hyped it into a big snowstorm, it’s hard to believe
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Icon trended west but the boundary layer is torched, so it’s rain. Running out of time to turn this into a snow event down to the coast.
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In fact, latest Icon model has rain and 40 degrees for Sunday the 18th. Steady snow inland. Time is running out
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Correct. Cold”er” seems like a lock; but clearly not that cold because it can’t even support snow Very reminiscent of January and February 2019. Warm and wet and cold and dry.
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Colder weather looks to return within the next few days. But the 1/6-1/11 thaw ended up turning into 1/6-1/15 thaw. Temps weren't too warm, made it to 52 or 53 a few times, but the duration is a bit sizeable. That being said, the cold air coming down the pike will likely push the month below average in terms of temps
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Regular Euro has a storm offshore on the 18th, nothing on the 20th, and then two cutters during the 3rd-4th week of january. Euro dumps a trough out west allowing the storms to cut
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Euro AI coming in with light snow on the 18th, and then cold and dry through the remainder of the month. The bulk of the storms and precip stays to the south with a few southern sliders. Very cold and dry (akin to late Jan 2025) look for the rest of CONUS.
