Krs4Lfe
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Everything posted by Krs4Lfe
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I am too, but all that rain on Sunday will wash it all the way, and doesn't look like any snow is coming after that any time soon.
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Part of the problem are our expectations. Some of us see a big snowstorm being modeled one week out and get all excited even though we know it's very unlikely to happen. Any time a good pattern is being depicted we all get excited, but the truth is usually somewhere in between. And now we see the same pattern regression, similar to mid February 2024, where the pattern looked promising but quickly regressed. The clues can often be seen earlier in the winter. Only minor snows through early Feb, when do we pack it in and admit not much else is changing? And then we see a big cutter this weekend, which some will say is "just gravy before the GREAT pattern sets in." None of the pattern this winter has been great, and it won't be. President's day storm? We've been talking about that for the past 3 winters, and each time it never happens
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As far as Wednesday night goes, it looks like there will be some light pasty snow before it turns to rain. It’s too bad but we’ll take anything we can get after the past 2 years. Those were abysmal. Last snowstorm here was January 2022, still waiting
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A few ticks north is possible but we’ll see if it’s just model noise. Confluence is pressing hard on this one, so mid-Atlantic will cash in. Ratios will be good up here but it looks pretty dry, confluence doesn’t seem to be moving much . (This is in regards to Tuesday night snow)
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I assume GFS holds from its earlier runs with just a coating here in the metro? Was pretty far south earlier
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I think in general we’re probably running out of time for anything more than light snow Tuesday night. We would need to see a sizable shift in the models in order to see something more significant. Seems unlikely at the moment
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Theoretically that would be a good idea but I don’t think it would work that way. Seems like Tuesday night keeps most snow south of here but with the primary low cutting I doubt we get much snow, if any on Thursday.
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At least there’s no chance of mix or rain on Tuesday. Storm is mainly to the south but it would be all snow. Any snow on Thursday will be very brief before changeover. If 12z Euro is right, then east coat ridge after that, so let’s enjoy what we get Tuesday
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Yeah you guys got into that good banding during the Friday night storm last February. 2-3” for most of NYC but south shore had around 6”. Central park around 2.” Central Park came just short or 4” for the storm earlier that week (it was Tuesday I believe), but most of NYC had a 3-5” for that one. Winter came in 2 weeks last year. There was a week in January where there were 2 separate 1.5” events (light snow). And then like 2 separate 3-5” in mid February. Central Park was still short of 10” though. At least this winter has been a bit more staggered.
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Mix of sleet and snow in Bayside now. Looks like lowest amounts will be along south shore 2.5” or so and highest will be 4”+ in Bronx. I guess a general 2-4”+. Biggest event since mid February of last year. Central park under 4” streak continues
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Looks like NWS Upton busted for northern zones on this one. Doubt anyone outside of interior New England has 8”. Most of Hudson valley will have up to 5” max
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JFK is usually the lowest of the 3 climate sites, I expect that to be reflected by this storm as well. It’s funny because the way NYC is spread out, I feel like they are all equally accurate for their respective areas. JFK is usually indicative of south shore Queen/BK, Staten Island. Central Park is usually indicative of Manhattan and Bronx. And LaGuarida is usually indicative of the city’s largest borough, Queens. So I guess they each have some value but Central Park definitely under measures most of the time
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Mainly sleet here now in Bayside, right around 3”. I wonder when Central Park took their measurement
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Mainly sleet here now in Bayside, right around 3”. I wonder when Central Park took their measurement
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Just about to hit 3” in Bayside, Queens, half snow and half sleet right now. It’s a pity Central Park probably has under 2”. It’s like impossible for them to reach 10” this season
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If this heavy snow continued for another hour, Central Park probably would have made it to 4”. I wonder if heavy rates can stave off the sleet for a little bit, but if not then we sleet for a few more hours then it’s probably all done.
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Sleet is about to enter NYC, snow rates should drop off pretty rapidly. I’d expect sleet for a few hours, followed by some light ZR or light rain and then that’s it. I hope Central Park takes measurement soon, final total there should be around 3” when it’s all done
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I doubt it. The heavy snow will probably last another 1-2 hours but there are breaks in the radar already showing up further to the west. When that happens we’ll sleet
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If I had to wager a guess, I’d say it’s last snow until next winter. Maybe Tuesday storm can push north a bit but I wouldn’t count on it. Thursday looks like a big Rainer. Next weekend to be determined.
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As unscientific as it sounds, nature seems to have a good memory. It has found so many ways not to significantly snow here in NYC this winter. It’s like 2019 winter, everything goes to the south and we’re cold and dry or everything goes to the north and we’re warm and raining. At least it’s better than 2023 and 2024 winters which weren’t good for anyone. It’s too bad, the storm next week had potential too but won’t do it
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NWS Upton and NWS Taunton doubling down on their totals, even increasing them to the north a bit. Not sure why, the opposite should be happening actually.
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In February 2019 we had 2 systems in the middle month period like this. It was 1-2” of snow and sleet for both. It’s hard to deny the north and warmer trend that SWFEs take. It’s hard for them to score well here in NYC. Sometimes, winter shows you its cards early. It’s found almost every way for it to snow that much here and I expect that to continue for the rest of the season. It’s very easy to say “February 2015?” Or “this pattern reminds me of 2013-2014 winter”. Then at the end, we say “the pattern was there but it didn’t produce”. But underneath the surface I think we all know that we’ve been rooting for those things even though we know the opposite is way more likely… like having 7” in NYC by early February. We post maps saying “great pattern” “buckle up” even though we know the patterns are barely performing. We’ve heard this story many times since early 2022. Same story
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Although I'm not sure what the official criteria is, it's usually if there is 5-6+ of snow being forecast for NYC within a 12 hour period. However, in February 2014, right on the heels of a 7-8 inch snowstorm after super bowl, there was a storm a few days later and the forecast was for 4-5" of snow, and then there was like 0.1-0.15 of freezing rain to finish off, so there was a winter storm warning for that event. However, in late February 2021, there was 5" of snow followed by some ice, but that was a multi-wave storm, so there was snow that Thursday morning, freezing rain in afternoon and overnight, then a few inches of snow the day after (Friday.) But since that was a 24+ hour event, there was only a winter weather advisory for it. February 2018 and March 2019 also had winter storm warnings for 5-6" forecast for NYC within a 10 hour period or so. So it depends on the duration and the amount. Generally speaking, 5-6"+ is required for winter storm waring for NYC unless it falls within 12 hours or less or if there is a combo of snow/freezing rain
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Quite the gradient setting up across NYC. 1-2” in the Bronx, probably not much accumulation in Central Park, and just white rain along south shore of Brooklyn and Staten Island. Snow is done here in north Queens (Bayside), right around 1 inch. Now light drizzle, likely freezing rain but should switch over to plain rain soon and snow will be gone by tomorrow morning.
