Krs4Lfe

Light snow in bayside queens. Sticking to all surfaces 33 degrees. I’d exited most urban areas to pretty much just be wet, but it’s enough for the boards to measure at least

If it’s still rain within 1 hour, I’d definitely start looking at the low end of the projections for Manhattan. Still in the mid 30s over there, that won’t cut it until there’s heavier precipitation

Light snow here in Queens. More like white rain but sticking to grass and car tops. I think Manhattan will definitely come in with the lower side of the 3 inches, barely. Our urban heat Island is notorious for making snow totals sometimes a few inches less than surrounding areas

I feel like the boroughs will be a bit limited in how much snow accumulates. Just feels like it should be colder at the moment in order for the recording sites to get that magic number Toniht. Just figured it would be closer to freezing point by now

What’s your temp over there

Light snow here in Bayside. Nothing sticking yet, but temps should hopefully cool off when the snow becomes heavier

Nothing in north Queens except flurries still

It’s astonishing how quickly winters have changes from the 2010s to the 2020s. This was peanuts a decade ago. This decade; a 4 inch snow storm feels like a lot. Makes me realize how good the 2021 winter was. Only above average snowfall since 2018. 2022 and 2019 were around 20 here in NYC, but the other 4 years were almost complete ratters.

Yeah usually you don’t want a storm to move in later because the later it moves in, you always lose some QPF. Nothing but flurries in NYC. Accumulating snow to the east and west though.

Central park measuring is a joke. That storm in February had most places in NYC at 4-5” and they were at 3”. Last year, the 1/19 storm; most of the city had 3-5” and they had like 1.8”. Saving grace is this storm comes in at night so maybe that’ll reduce melting as the snow falls. I’d still expect some white rain at the onset because temps are still warm right now.

Snow was definitely beefier than expected in the Midwest. Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Columbus, Pittsburgh went under winter storm warnings but yesterday they were only under winter weather advisories. Maybe it’s a good sign to see more snow than expected to our west. Hopefully that transfers to our area

This storm reminds me a bit of the early January 2022 snow event. That one was more wide-reaching of course, but 3-5" of snow expected, but NYC ended up with 5-8", a fluffy snow because the temperature was around 31 for most of the event, and it was a complete nighttime event. Not expecting anywhere near 5-8" with this one, and we're also starting out a bit warmer with temps in upper 30s, so I'd expect some white rain in the beginning.

That seems unlikely unless we start off above freezing mark. Some of the more amped model show freezing line running right through NYC and Long Island during the event, so I guess this will be like a pasty snow, not fluffy

The craziest thing is that before 2020 I would have laughed at a statement like this. But after the near complete shutouts in 2020 and 2023, something like this could actually happen.

Looking more like a whiff at the moment. In the past, these snow bands have set up further north than modeled, but that's when there was a more negative tilt which would allow bands to often move further north than modeled. Can't do that hear due to the fast flow

Yeah, that one is absolutely ridiculous because they were two instances in February 2024 we’re almost every single surrounding place recorded at least 4 inches of snow, including JFK, which received around 8 inches of snow in that surprise snow band that’s set up in mid February 2024. However, the snowstorm that was earlier that month had all places around Central Park receiving at least 5 inches of snow and somehow Central Park just below 4 inches. Even last year around the MLK day snow event, all other recording sites and most areas nearby were able to just reach 4 inches if I’m not mistaken. Somehow Central Park always comes up short

It’s truly crazy. I can’t think of any other way to describe it. Thinking we might very likely be shut out of snow here this month. That is likely a terrible sign for the rest of the winter. It was actually cold enough to snow this month, it just couldn’t happen though. Always need a bit of luck down here on the coast. But each year that we don’t get a KU, we need more and more luck to get something because of how much the base state has warmed. The 2010s winters feel like ages ago now

If I am not mistaken, I believe MJO phase 5 is the worst for cold and wintry weather

Hopefully New York City can sneak in 4 inches of snow by the end of the month although that is looking increasingly unlikely especially with the big warm-up coming after the 20th. Statistics don’t lie and Decembers that usually feature at least 4 inches of snow in New York City have a high chance of producing average or above average snowfall for the rest of the season. Central Parks measuring has been consistently terrible over the past few years even more so then it had been in the past so I wouldn’t be surprised if they barely record an inch from the snow that is coming on Sunday.

Midwest is getting more heavy snow through this weekend. Clipper moving in tonight, and then another snowstorm that's in Montana/the Northwest tonight moving in through this weekend. It's good to see snow to our north, west, and south. Winter definitely off to a good start for much of the northern tier. Hopefully we get ours this weekend and then we can reset later this month and start off January strong. I'm just concerned about torching late month and then that lasting through January like December 2022. Lots of similarities that month.

When do you think this fast Pacific flow pattern will ease up a bit? Back in the 2010s, there used to be bowling balls traversing the US when there was this much cold air. Now; we’re stuck with clippers. Only have had to shovel snow a handful of times since 2020.

So basically the models that actually matter are light snow at best

Verbatim based on those temperature anomaly maps New York City is pretty much right around average on December 26, while the rest of the country is torching. The craziest statistic is what you just mentioned above is where places down south that are running up to 8° below normal this month could finish close to average because much of the country will be in spring like warmth during Christmas week. Reminds me a lot of December 2022 colder than normal month overall a big-time arctic freeze a few big storms across the north US and then after Christmas, we torched right through right through New Year’s and through the rest of January.

The models are really not backing down with the warmth after the 20th. Not enough to offset the cold we’ve had so far but yikes that’s a pretty warm Christmas week

Sometimes it seems hard to envision a sharp weather pattern change when you’re in a totally opposite pattern at the moment. I remember how cold December 2022 was, especially during Christmastime but then we had straight 50s and 60 degrees right through new year. Patterns can flip on a dime, for better or for worse. The cold has been quite enjoyable but we all know it can’t last forever. It would be a bit unreasonable to believe January won’t at least start out warm. Maybe it doesn’t end up that way in the end, but very likely it ends up warm just by the sheer nature of this cold pattern can’t stick around forever