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Krs4Lfe

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  1. Krs4Lfe
    There’s no mechanism to make this move back northwest. The northern stream acts as a kicker and if it’s not perfectly places with the storm, then we end up with a southern slider. Aside from 2021 and Jan 2022, the fast PAC jet since 2019 has been in charge. That won’t change
  2. Krs4Lfe
    This is what happens when we bet against the base state. Southern sliders have been the theme all winter. Why would that change now? And there’s not much to bring this system northwest with the blocking in the wrong place. It is what it is, just unfortunate because this was our best shot all season.
  3. Krs4Lfe
    I just wish we could make it to normal snowfall. If that happens, I don’t care how warm it gets in March. But we’re on track to finish lower than 2022 season, I’d like more than that
  4. Krs4Lfe
    That being said, I haven’t seen much on social media or on beee lately about the pattern after this storm threat. Ideally, we would have a trough in the east but not the TPV pressing too close so that would prevent suppression while still giving us enough cold air to battle warm march temps
  5. Krs4Lfe
    As long as the pattern is good, opportunities can pop up whenever. I’d rather have a good looking pattern knowing opportunities may come at any time. Big march in La Niña is usually full blown Spring
  6. Krs4Lfe
    One thing to look for is if the pattern regresses as time goes on later this month. Feb 2024 had rapid pattern regression and March 2022 also. Last week we were all talking about how great the pattern looked going into early March. Haven’t heard much of that now, I’d assume that after this threat we go back to suppression? Even though it’s naturally warmer at that point because it’ll be March but maybe that can help us
  7. Krs4Lfe
    Today’s snow barely existed. Clear trends today towards the northern stream pushing this one out too far for most of us. Again, it’s hard to bet against the base state. If we didn’t get a big one so far this season, we likely won’t at all
  8. Krs4Lfe
    Around 1” here in Bayside. That’s it for this one
  9. Krs4Lfe
    Not sure Central Park will get more than that. Precip seems to have fallen apart and then we dry slot before rain tonight. Oh well. Still under 12” for the season here.
  10. Krs4Lfe
    Rain comes in later tonight I assume ? Maybe Central park makes it over 1”. That’s a dream but I doubt it.
  11. Krs4Lfe
    Still snowing here in Bayside, I’d expect we turn to rain in an hour or so. Should make it to about 1”
  12. Krs4Lfe
    Light snow here in Bayside. Nice coating on everything except the roads. Mix line is in Central NJ, I’d expect to change to rain within 2 hours here. Maybe we’ll make it to 1”
  13. Krs4Lfe
    Moderate snow here in Bayside. Around 33-34 degrees so nothing sticking. I doubt Central Park even sees an inch from this, ideally if it snowed after sunset there would be less sun angle issue and maybe it would accumulate in Manhattan. Feels colder than what it actually is out here.
  14. Krs4Lfe
    How does the pattern look going forward after any potential wintry mischief next week? La Nina’s usually feature a quick shift to Spring, I don’t see why there would be anything different this year
  15. Krs4Lfe
    With the primary low so far west, it will be pretty difficult to get a decent thump here in NYC. That's a strong warm nose, and then we get so warm that it turns to plain rain, and 1-2" of it. Considering temperatures will be warm tomorrow, and the wintry mix looks to start before sunset, I doubt anyone in NYC gets over 1 slushy inch. Which means at Central Park, it'll be registered as a dusting.
  16. Krs4Lfe
    With a screaming northern jet, I doubt anyone in the northeast will see something significant from the storm signal between the 17th and 20th. We’ve seen all season how the fast northern stream has not been able to align with vortexes within the southern stream, and without a phase, most places north of the southern mid-Atlantic will struggle to see anything significant. Proceed at your own risk with any large storm depictions. The base state is for a fast northern stream bringing light events across the northern tier. Never good to bet against the base state
  17. Krs4Lfe
    Finished with around 2.5" tops here in Bayside
  18. Krs4Lfe
    Light to moderate snow now in Bayside. Roads covered now. Should continue like this for a few more hours, get us to 2”. I guess what we all expected anyway
  19. Krs4Lfe
    This snow looks so peaceful, it’s unfortunate that it’s all going to wash away Thursday morning and then Saturday with all that rain and temps in the 50s according to the Euro. Toasty
  20. Krs4Lfe
    Looks like Manhattan, Bronx, and north Queens will get fringed, would be surprised if Central Park eeks out more than 1” from this. Looks like very light rates over the western and northern part of NYC,
  21. Krs4Lfe
    I’m surprised, it’s coming down nicely here in Bayside.
  22. Krs4Lfe
    What strikes me as more interesting is the lack of snowfall over most of CONUS last season and this season. A fast northern stream provides the goods only for the far north of CONUS/Great Lakes and then when the cold air finally comes, it's the south that reaps the benefits. Is it better than 2024 winter and 2023 winter? Heck yes, because those winters barely even felt like winter because all the snow came in 1 week and there was barely any cold around except for maybe 2 arctic blasts each season. That being said, 10' for the season thus far is abysmal in NYC. Not as bad as 2024,2023,2020, and 2012. Those were torch years with like 1 moderate snow event each year. But with the warming climate, it's so hard to get a colder than average winter and the 1 year that we finally managed to do it, it barely accompanies any snow. It's incredible, but hopefully next winter is better. I know it sounds funny that it seems like I'm writing off the rest of this winter, but it's almost mid-Feb, and the pattern doesn't look too great for the rest of Feb (as in, it looks like more of the same that we've had all winter), except it will naturally become warmer as we head into March. The crux of winter is already behind us, with so little to show for it.
  23. Krs4Lfe
    I think It might be our last snowfall for the winter…period. This winter has shown its cards. If we were meant to get a decent snowfall we would have gotten it by now or we would be actively tracking it by now. Last year and this year have been quite inactive across CONUS except for a few exceptions. Even 2023 (which was historically mild here) had record snow from west coast to Upper Midwest. Bismarck and Minneapolis had like 100” inches I think, an all time record. Great Lakes and Deep South have been winning, but past 2 years CONUS wide hasn’t been much. The flow is just too fast, until the northern stream slows down we’ll be left with shredders.
  24. Krs4Lfe
    Yeah our next hope for any snow after tonight is maybe around the 16-20th when that storm signal keeps popping up ?? Possibly
  25. Krs4Lfe
    So I assume that there’s no chance of snow Wednesday night before all the rain on Thursday ?
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