Krs4Lfe

CPC just came in with crushing news for snow weenies across most of the US. Warm and mild, only colder pockets here in the northeast. Looks like pushing the ridge out over Central US was just temporary. Most of CONUS goes right back to warmer temperatures and that forecast is for 1/8-1/13. Most will have to punt first half of January. Never a good sign imo

Typical depiction of almost all winters since 2019. Endless can kicking. Each time there needs to be "a miracle" or "thread the needle" and then we move onto the next one. Until we get into March and we realize it's all over lol

I think the short range models are putting too much into the clipper on NYE. Seems like nothing but mood flakes until it hits the water and then maybe a few inches for Cape Cod and downeast Maine. Precipitation coming from a northwest origin tends to dry out big time. Sunday (verbatim as it is depicted currently) is just as dried out.

This sounds accurate. La Ninas are usually warmer than normal in February and torch in March. December and January are the best months for snowfall in a La Nina. Once you punt January (not saying we are, at least not yet) in a La Nina, you run into significant trouble for rest of winter. Now would be the month to cash in. In a La Nina, anything past end of January becomes more difficult.

Models punting the originally expected "good pattern" through first week of January. Onto the next week, and the next week, and I bet the week after that. Mild and warmth returns to most of CONUS except northeast starting next week. No sustained cold or snow for most of country. We might remain cold, but it'll be hard to snow with such persistent warm all around. Terrible look

Yesterday we were talking about how a big storm was becoming more likely in that timeframe range. Now it looks like a repeat of cold/dry and warm/wet. Nothing to be happy about in the long range. That being said, it's still quite far away, and the pattern change looks likely, but probably doesn't happen soon enough for this storm to be what we wanted it to be

You'd think with that depiction that there would be at least 1" across NY metro and then once it hits the water, it would strengthen enough to reach a few inches in east New England. But the model depictions look so dried out

Welcome to the new normal. The flow is too fast for anything amplified. Too much storminess near the west coast doesn't let anything amplified to crawl up the coast like it used to in the 2010s and 2000s. Even when there is a -NAO so there's enough blocking, the flow is too fast and the northern stream can never phase with southern stream.

Agreed. This pattern is good for some lighter snows, but until we have a big PNA spike, no larger storm is making its way to our area. I think the OPs and the Ensembles were overzealous with the large storms they were depicting past few days. In reality, they were probably just signaling a pattern change, but the way models are….. you know the rest

As far as the sixth to the ninth goes, models took a big step back last night. Everything seemingly goes to the west and north or to the south and east of our area. That timeframe still looks good for a whole scale pattern change with a positive PNA spike over the west, which would lead to a trough and potential storm moving through the east. But unless the PNA spikes high enough, the storm will just glide out to sea, similar to several winter weather events from last winter. Seems like amplification can be a real problem in this pattern. Either way, that timeframe looks good for a pattern change, but it’s looking less good for a bigger snow event in our area. Overall, the timeframe looks pretty decent for us over here and it would be a shame if it did not produce because we don’t see many patterns set up like that during peak Climo.

Nothing but a few flurries likely on New Year’s Day. The Clippers are more just like a dried out frontal passage until it reaches the Cape Cod area and then it can drop a few inches. Becoming less and less likely that there is any accumulation in these parts at all.

That’s the lowest level of QPF. Closer to Massachusetts cape that’s some more QPF and could be light snow. Probably just flurries here

The snow showers and squalls from inland PA across New England are the real deal for through New Year’s Day. Heavier snow showers than usual and lake effect bands reaching farther inland than would normally result on the backside of a Great Lakes storm. Hopefully we can get some accumulation down here New Year’s Day but models have really backed off on that and it seems like a dried out frontal passage at best now

If we don’t see anything else by mid January, then I’d say your second call sbout mid winter is also correct. Early springs are typical with La Niña, probably no reason to not expect that with this one as well. The short range looks good for now but all it takes is for one ingredient to be off and then we punt the whole pattern. Let’s hope not

Nothing more than mood flakes most likely. Models have the tendency to overdo depictions of snow showers (which can perform very well for Upstate PA, NY and New England but completely dry out by the time they reach here. Either way, temps in the 20s all throughout so anything that does fall will stick but unlikely anything falls at all

This year definitely bucks the trend of increasing warmth between Christmas and New Years. It's one of our fastest warming times of the year in these parts. Still, with NYC receiving 7-8+ this month, that should bode well for the rest of winter in a La Nina

Looks nice and cold to end December and to start January. That warmup became very muted and only limited to like 2 days, as opposed to some depictions of a torch between Christmas and New Years. But throughout the first week of January, the Northeast is really the only region that will be colder than normal. Yes, there is an increasing likelihood that areas further west and south become colder but they've been so warm for so long now. Typical La Nina down there I guess, but the persistent warmth in the west and Central US is more surprising

Looks decent for some light snow accumulations in New England on New Years day but those usually don't pan out well for us down here. FROPA is usually all dried out for us

Usually those do better for you guys in New England. Doubt we see anything but flurries here in NYC.

Well that is a serious risk once you have a big shake up in the Pacific. There needed to be a shakeup because the omega ridge over Central US couldn't last forever, but the storminess that was required to shake up that ridge has the risk to continue to crash into west coast. A trough over the west naturally leads to heights rising in the east, as seen in the 0z Gfs ensembles. The storminess that was needed to push that central US ridge out can be too much of a good thing, as indicated by the 0z GFS ensembles. I would give more credence to that scenario playing out

Looks like good snow showers and squalls over Appalachian mountains and inland regions of PA and New England. Those rarely ever make it to the coast. Looks cold enough for accumulation though if anything does fall.

Sometimes guidance can correctly latch onto big cold blasts or warmups far in the distance. I remember how well the January 2019 cold blast and early February 2019 cold blast was forecast. Got down to near 0 here in NYC. Down near -30 in Chicago. Very impressive cold blasts that winter

Yeah he had great insights on 33andrain.com when the forum was online. I haven't been there since they switched to discord Spring 2023. Do they still exist?

Pattern still looks to very northern stream dominant for the foreseeable future. Lots of low pressure north of Great Lakes and east Canada. Could yield a few light snow events for New England and interior Northeast, but still no signs of any amplified solutions because the northern stream is very dominant. Definitely a cold start to January, but I would put pause on a larger snow event until we can get the western ridge to spike a bit more. If we can get that +PNA, we might be in good shape. Until then, maybe some snow shower events through first week of January, likely nothing more than that

Quite the storm coming into the Midwest. Significant snow for Minneapolis, blizzard conditions from Dakotas through UP Michigan. Even Detroit’s forecast calls for a few inches of snow on Monday and gusts up to 50 mph. Could be blizzard like conditions for that area too. Same with Milwaukee Sunday night and Monday morning. I wouldn’t be surprised if places outside the urban cities are upgraded to blizzard warnings (was already done for the Minneapolis suburbs). Big time lake effect will kick in Tuesday through Thursday as well. Good to see a big storm to change up the stagnant warm pattern across most of CONUS