Krs4Lfe

If I had to wager a guess, I’d say it’s last snow until next winter. Maybe Tuesday storm can push north a bit but I wouldn’t count on it. Thursday looks like a big Rainer. Next weekend to be determined.

As unscientific as it sounds, nature seems to have a good memory. It has found so many ways not to significantly snow here in NYC this winter. It’s like 2019 winter, everything goes to the south and we’re cold and dry or everything goes to the north and we’re warm and raining. At least it’s better than 2023 and 2024 winters which weren’t good for anyone. It’s too bad, the storm next week had potential too but won’t do it

NWS Upton and NWS Taunton doubling down on their totals, even increasing them to the north a bit. Not sure why, the opposite should be happening actually.

In February 2019 we had 2 systems in the middle month period like this. It was 1-2” of snow and sleet for both. It’s hard to deny the north and warmer trend that SWFEs take. It’s hard for them to score well here in NYC. Sometimes, winter shows you its cards early. It’s found almost every way for it to snow that much here and I expect that to continue for the rest of the season. It’s very easy to say “February 2015?” Or “this pattern reminds me of 2013-2014 winter”. Then at the end, we say “the pattern was there but it didn’t produce”. But underneath the surface I think we all know that we’ve been rooting for those things even though we know the opposite is way more likely… like having 7” in NYC by early February. We post maps saying “great pattern” “buckle up” even though we know the patterns are barely performing. We’ve heard this story many times since early 2022. Same story

Although I'm not sure what the official criteria is, it's usually if there is 5-6+ of snow being forecast for NYC within a 12 hour period. However, in February 2014, right on the heels of a 7-8 inch snowstorm after super bowl, there was a storm a few days later and the forecast was for 4-5" of snow, and then there was like 0.1-0.15 of freezing rain to finish off, so there was a winter storm warning for that event. However, in late February 2021, there was 5" of snow followed by some ice, but that was a multi-wave storm, so there was snow that Thursday morning, freezing rain in afternoon and overnight, then a few inches of snow the day after (Friday.) But since that was a 24+ hour event, there was only a winter weather advisory for it. February 2018 and March 2019 also had winter storm warnings for 5-6" forecast for NYC within a 10 hour period or so. So it depends on the duration and the amount. Generally speaking, 5-6"+ is required for winter storm waring for NYC unless it falls within 12 hours or less or if there is a combo of snow/freezing rain

Quite the gradient setting up across NYC. 1-2” in the Bronx, probably not much accumulation in Central Park, and just white rain along south shore of Brooklyn and Staten Island. Snow is done here in north Queens (Bayside), right around 1 inch. Now light drizzle, likely freezing rain but should switch over to plain rain soon and snow will be gone by tomorrow morning.

Snow just wrapped up here in Bayside, Queens. Just some flurries now. Just around 4” on the dot. Looks like it was 2-4” citywide, probably lost 1-2” inches when there was light rain and sleet all afternoon. Snow didn’t really start until 445 or so. 5 hour storm, few more hours and we would have had solid 3-6” across the city

Yeah NYC Is at a D so far. Only 1/3rd of seasonal snowfall as the best snow bands continue to miss us in all these events. F winter until today. Maybe we can make it up to C category ? (That would be 20”, similar to 2022 winter). B winter would be average (27-30” inches, won’t happen this season but that’s what a B would be)

3.5 inches on tabletops in madison square park, report just came from Tomer Burg on twitter. If that park can get over 3", so can Central Park.

We still have a long way to go here in NYC to reach 2022 level. That January 2022 blizzard allowed for an 18-22” season total across NYC. We still have about 10” to go over here until we reach that amount.

Yeah so 2 inches at Central Park, and I believe they were at 6” before this storm. So we’ve beaten 1998,2002,2012,2020,2023 (which were all ratters. This one is a ratter too until we hit 10” which might not be likely at Centeal park this season). Many spotters reporting 3.5” in Central Park, don’t know why the measuring site is always so low (clearly they dont measure without compaction) I’ve hit 11” for the season here in Bayside.

In between 3.5 and 4” here in Bayside Queens. Still coming down a bit, should end very soon. Will Central Park crack 3?

Yeah it looks like that northern band really died off and most radar returns continue to be virga. Makes sense with a southern band taking up most of the energy and dumping the southern zones. Kind lf like what Tomer was saying.

Tomer Burg says the northern band of snow is dying out as the southern band takes control and strengthens, which would lead to a dry slot north of Trenton. Concerning if it happens.

That being said, it doesn't fully explain how Central US became void of snow and cold this winter. It truly is incredible to see, but while December is usually not snowy for this region, December is quite snowy for Central US, and helps establish a critical snowpack. That did not happen this year, and we lost critical time, which was further damaged by a Pac extension during peak climo (early-mid Feb), which led to another torch over the Central region.

I would argue that the lack of snow across CONUS is not only due to warm Canada and warm north US, rather the fact that a fast PAC has also led to a lack of blocking in the north Atlantic, which is how the January systems moved out to sea, and the storm on Tuesday was such a quick mover. Slower movers would have allowed for slower storms with more snow, and for there to be less of a suppression risk like what happened in late Jan and early Feb. Lack of atlantic blocking led to OTS systems, or snowstorms that moved too quickly. That alone would have led to increased snow coverage and colder weather (snow begets snow), and would have led to less rainstorms over the region.

Agreed, this was reminiscent of the 2016 strong El Niño, and other strong El Niños of the past. But this wasn’t a strong El Niño. So why was it so warm? Troubling for sure. Maybe due to the December pac jet extension, which torched December, not allowing snowcover and cold to be established. Same thing happened in early to mid Feb. 2 critical timeframes that we lost due to pac torch. Could that be the reason why ?

Ryan Maue posted some maps showing the extent of the warmth across the nation from the pattern flip around March 1st. The EPS and GEFS are the most bullish on this, with temperatures around +8 for the NYC area. GEPS is least bullish, with temperatures around neutral. That being said, all of them indicate a colder than normal (generally -5 to -10) across the west, including UT/NV/ID, and of course the west coast. Should lead to some good snows over there.

Ouch. You tend to be one of the most optimistic on this board. I guess we'll have the next 10 days or so to try to squeeze something in. A flareup of the SE ridge is how we become very warm here (early Jan 2023, mid Jan 2020, Feb 2018, Feb 2017, Dec 2014). That would really be the icing on the cake if that happens in early March.

Its interesting to note that while the weeklies and almost all model guidance has pulled the rug on any sort of wintry weather/ cold temps by around March 1st or so, there appears to be some sort of return to western ridging and eastern trough around mid March. Of course, that is 1 month away, and we would have to endure a Pac jet extension and flareup of the SE ridge. There are too many problems between end of February and mid-March, but at the very least, I suppose it would prevent March from being totally a spring month.

Its interesting to note that while the weeklies and almost all model guidance has pulled the rug on any sort of wintry weather/ cold temps by around March 1st or so, there appears to be some sort of return to western ridging and eastern trough around mid March. Of course, that is 1 month away, and we would have to endure a Pac jet extension and flareup of the SE ridge. There are too many problems between end of February and mid-March, but at the very least, I suppose it would prevent March from being totally a spring month.

Verbatim, that looks like a good pattern. Ideally you would want that western ridge to be further east towards ID, which would prevent low pressure from moving too far inland. Unfortunately, due to lack of cold and snow cover, which will only be even less sustained at that point, it's highly likely that this would lead to just cold rainstorms for the region.

@brooklynwx99Your thoughts about the pattern over the next few weeks? How did we lose this pattern so fast?

Considering that there is no background cold or high pressure confluence in southeast Canada to prevent systems from cutting, I would argue yes. And every passing day, the average temperature becomes warmer and it’s harder to snow. With no cold air in the mix and minimal snowpack, it becomes even harder. What’s worse is that high latitude blocking has all but disappeared from guidance, indicating a very warm March coming. I think it’s safe to say this is it for the season. Sometimes the easiest path is the right path, and for this winter, persistence forecasting was key.

I said this in the other forum, but I think it’s working stating here as well. Some things that astonish me, and yes I know, I’ve said them before, but I can’t help but repeat them now. 1. a quick pattern regression after Feb 25th or so, into one that is consistent with a western trough and eastern ridge, which would provide west US with ample opportunity for both winter weather and severe storms (this is a complete shift from the projected pattern for the same period that has been showing up the past few weeks) 2. If any winter could be dubbed “the year without a winter” it would be this one. Only twelve named winter Storms from the weather channel up until this point. And for all those who will say it’s unscientific to name winter storms (I agree on some level), lake ice extent is at a record low, temperature anomalies are near a record high for the northern tier, and almost the whole nation is well below average for both snowcover and snowfall to date. 3. in terms of winter weather and severity, this is even milder than 2012,2020, and 2023 for almost the entirety of CONUS. Remember, 2023, while being historically un snowy for this board, was historically snowy for many from west coast through upper Midwest and the Great Lakes. This year, no one is winning (except for a few places in Deep South where one snowstorm is a good season for them). I think NYC has only dropped into the teens like 2 nights at most. 4. And with the projected jet extension in beginning of March, that will put this winter to bed, the chefs kiss. 3 jet extension torches. One for the last 3 weeks of December, one in first 2 weeks of February, and one projected in early March. Critical timeframes of winter totally shunted CONUSwide by a dominant pacific. Incredible. Surprisingly, with the clipper event coming up (and other snow not withstanding), NYC has more snow than 2020, 2023, 2002, 1998, and will likely have more than 2012 when all is said and done. Yet with the great patterns indicated for much of the season, somehow this hurts even more. And it’s awful for storm tracking when much of the nation has been void of snow.