Krs4Lfe

Hopefully the radar begins to fill in soon. We'll need every minute of it. Radar looks good to our south

Oh for sure

Need heavy rates in order to do that. We're down to a pixy dust kind of snow here in Queens. Can't stick like this

Maybe like 4" for storm total considering they probably got at least some measurable snowfall this morning. South shore has yet to start though with the accumulation. Snow started back up here in north Queens but likely white rain for many. Will need at least moderate snowfall rates this evening when sun goes down to make up for that, especially close to the coast.

Rhode Island and East Mass will do well with this one regardless. Most in NYC metro have under an inch so far, so this would verify on the low end of the regionwide 3-5" winter weather advisory.

That's very bullish from upton. But really highlighting how the shorelines will only have an inch or two. And considering we have around 1" in parts of NYC, they believe we'll only have 2 more by the time the storm is done. HRRR is big on the moderate-heavy snow this evening, but most other guidance only has 1-2" more inches for most of us.

not sure how accurate the HRRR is or how much stock we should put into it. They didn't even have a lull for most of us. And where the precipitation has been lighter, there has been white rain along the shorelines with temps spiking up a bit. Rest of the storm will hinge on the snow this evening.

Have about 1-1.5" on north shore Queens, tapering down now. CPK was around 32 for most of the time, so maybe they picked up an inch

Looks like locations along the shore remained quite warm with round 1. Some of those mesos yesterday showing rain for round 1 weren't off. I'm glad NWS hasn't triggered a winter storm warning for anywhere. HRRR isn't most accurate with this one IMO, it showed there barely being a lull at all, but we'll likely lull until 4 pm or so and then we get into the heavier stuff. Luckily, the sun will be down by then, so it'll be easier to accumulate as long as its colder.

Per the radar, that lull is moving in fast but most areas in NYC should snag a total of 1" before precip shuts off. Most of it will probably melt during the lull but HRRR says light snow up until the main action later today.

Yeah and with the lull coming in soon, we'll all probably warm up a few degrees. Latest mesos took the storm east a bit, and along with it, the best dynamics. But around 4 PM, NYC is expected to start snowing again.

Moderate snow here in Bayside. Probably nearing an inch but that’s because we’re a bit elevated and usually colder than rest of the borough. Roads look wet with minimal accumulation.

GFS ai wants to cut during that period. Remains adamant on trough crashing into west coast which pumps heights in the east up. Pattern doesn’t support that at all thouhh.

We would need a January-February 2015, February 2021, January 2023, January 2024 (those last 2 were very good for the west( type scenario to change course for much of the central and West US, which is blowing past their all time warm and dry winters from long ago

It’s still surprising to see the lack of snow and cold west of the Midwest in the north east. That will change very soon as waves of cold and snow are likely to travel across the plains and towards the south even. The northeast and the Midwest has truly lucked out with the overall lack of warmth, aside from the 7 to 10 day thaw that we just had. But aside from that, winter has been no longer be seen for much of the US. That statistic I mentioned yesterday, with snow cover at the lowest since 2012 window, is very eye-opening. Seems like something that you would see in a super warm, super El Niño, and I know La Niña’s are usually o, but the warmth and dry conditions have been off the charts this winter with almost wall to wall record setting warmth from the plains to the West Coast.

After the rug pull that happened in Feb 2025, I’m not ready to uncancel winter yet

RFS model coming in much drier and with a larger lull. Seems like models are in agreement with a round of light snow/rain in the morning, then a lull in afternoon, and then around 5 pm to late evening is most of the snow. Would’ve been nice to see it snow all day though. Daytime snow is better than nighttime snow

Yeah once 33andrain formed in 2017 most of the biggest posters left and went there

It’s funny you mention that because my days of tracking weather on this board have only been since 2019, but when I look back on the older pages for storms in the past, sometimes there would would be new threads for each one of the model suites when there was a big storm coming. This place used to get a lot of traffic back in the day, clearly. Been much quieter ever since.

Yeah between the trends in less QPF (drier), and warm temps at the onset (low-mid 30s), 1-3” is probably the right call. NWS seems a bit bullish with the 3-4

With tomorrow’s storm it’ll be best winter since 2022 because December was cold and we’re back to cold now. But it only feels like a great winter because of how warm and snowless the 2020s have been

That gets NYC to 8.7” for the season. More than all of 2012,2020,2023,and 2024. 5 more inches and we’ll tie last year’s total.

Warm and not as much snow as before. Both HRR and NAM were further south and east this run as opposed to last run. Also, with the storm slightly weaker, there's less dynamic cooling

Might be up to 1" at the next update, had 0.5" at 1 pm and the rates from 1-1:30 were quite heavy. Finished with around 1.5" here in Bayside. Around 11.5" for the season

Probably not a 10:1 accumulation, especially in Manhattan, but we have over 1 inch here in Bayside. Still probably a few hours ago, maybe we can make it to 2"?