Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/25 - 1/26

[snywx]

7 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I think the northern areas of the forum should see a foot easy, even up to 15-18 in select spots.

12-18” looking more and more likely for us up here 

[SACRUS]

Snow starts between 2 - 6 am Sunday morning

 

[eduggs]

This is the concern right here. The Delmarva, SNJ, CVA up to DCA were progged for 12+ for days (still might get it). But the NAM warms the mid-levels so fast that the duration of snow is too short lived for major (6+) accumulations. If this keeps trending in the same direction, we are at risk for a similar fate. It has happened many times in the past and often in hindsight people say it was obvious with a trof axis so far west. Fortunately the NAM is also sometimes too amped at this range. But it should not be completely dismissed.

[kat5hurricane]

16 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The front end thump is solid. There's a higher ceiling with this than usual too. 

I find that thumps in SWFEs tend to underachieve a bit and mix quicker than modeled. I think the higher ceiling depends on if the costal gets going but otherwise looks like a 6-8" to sleet type of deal for coastal areas. Those in Rockland and further NW look to be in a great spot for major snows but 6-8" would be the biggest storm in years for coastal areas so we'll certainly take that.

[SACRUS]

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

 

 

[winterwarlock]

26 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

Lol so we riding the nam? Not saying its wrong but making a call off one model is a bit silly.

its not the nam run , its the nam picking up on some of the same idea that other models are showing

[Stormlover74]

Looks colder and weaker 

[Winterweatherlover]

GFS looks like it'll hold serve but at this point I'm not taking it too seriously with all the other models more amped. I'd expect at least some mixing at least to the I95 corridor but still think a significant thump possible/likely first, maybe some backend snow.

[OrangeCTWX]

Not taking the GFS too seriously. Its own AI version doesn’t even agree with it. As much as I wish I could because hour 93 is beautiful. 

[SACRUS]

 

[SACRUS]

[Franklin0529]

Gfs only gets the primary to Tennessee an jumps to the coast. That's ideal for us an something to watch. All others have it into wv or pa

[eduggs]

31 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

yup; 6-10 seems right for most; still laughing thinking about people two days ago talking about 20/25:1 ratios

This is a classic SWFE event where we thump and end as sleet

Yeah the ratio thing is silly. But I still think a 12+ solution in possible. The 6z ECM/ECM-AI looked solid. Same with the 12z RGEM. We just have to hope for a flatter shortwave across the mid-south and mid-west in the run up.

[WeatherGeek2025]

I would love for the GFS to verify but it's the outlier. I am going all in with Euro AI. if Euro AI verified it'd be 8-12 in the city followed by sleet which would keep my snow for weeks on the ground. I'm happy with that and there's more chances of snow down the road!

[Franklin0529]

Just now, eduggs said:

Yeah the ratio thing is silly. But I still think a 12+ solution in possible. The 6z ECM/ECM-AI looked solid. Same with the 12z RGEM. We just have to hope for a flatter shortwave across the mid-south and mid-west in the run up.

Gfs looks great too. But that model sucks 

[Snowlover11]

The closet the mixing gets on the gfs atleast based on those images is like toms river.

[Stormlover74]

Gfs is less of a thump but longer duration with heavier stuff at night when all the other models have us flipping by that time

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Looks colder and weaker 

The faster it transfers to a coastal the better.

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, Franklin0529 said:

Gfs only gets the primary to Tennessee an jumps to the coast. That's ideal for us an something to watch. All others have it into wv or pa

Theres just no reason to believe the GFS unless it gets any other model support. The alternative scenario of the other models is not that bad though.

[EastonSN+]

Gfs is a hold.

[MJO812]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Gfs is less of a thump but longer duration with heavier stuff at night when all the other models have us flipping by that time

Gfs is also slower with the precip arrival and lasts longer on Monday .

[eduggs]

Sure everybody would enjoy a 6"+ thump on Sunday. But it's much more enjoyable if you don't have to sweat the pending sleet. The hypervigilance for the tell-tale signs of change over distracts from the experience.

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, eduggs said:

Sure everybody would enjoy a 6"+ thump on Sunday. But it's much more enjoyable if you don't have to sweat the pending sleet. The hypervigilance for the tell-tale signs of change over distracts from the experience.

Or you just allow yourself to enjoy it? What's so bad about sleet on top of snow anyway? It's not rain.

[psv88]

What's funny is that if the GFS was bad people would committing suicide.

Its a perfect solution and people say "Well it sucks." Gotta love weenie mentality!

[Wannabehippie]

12 hours ago, Snowguy66 said:

What's with the 2 lows

Miller B set up. Primary low, transfers energy to secondary low off the coast.

[Nibor]

AIGFS doesn't agree with the GFS OP

[SACRUS]

 

 

1/22 12z GFS total QPF:

 

Total snow/sleet (10:1) - again with a long / linger snow duration through Monday afternoon:

 

 

 

[psv88]

Just now, Winterweatherlover said:

Or you just allow yourself to enjoy it? What's so bad about sleet on top of snow anyway? It's not rain.

I have been saying this for days. We are all getting snow. 

There are things can go wrong in every storm. Here, we are locked to see a major winter storm. We can chat about model output, but repeating that you are "Concerned" its not necessary. Ruins the vibe.

[WeatherGeek2025]

15 minutes ago, snywx said:

12-18” looking more and more likely for us up here 

you always win!!!!!!