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WxUSAF

December 16-17, 2020 Winter Storm Obs/Nowcasting

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1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

18z EURO says the Northern Maryland folks should stay up late.

ecmwf-deterministic-dc-snow_1hr_10to1-1608141600-1608166800-1608202800-80.gif

1608195600-0IRN5Wi5cwc.png

^ between 10:00pm and 4:00am

I’ll stay up for wind blown .7 any day 

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7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

18z EURO says the Northern Maryland folks should stay up late.

ecmwf-deterministic-dc-snow_1hr_10to1-1608141600-1608166800-1608202800-80.gif

1608195600-0IRN5Wi5cwc.png

^ between 10:00pm and 4:00am

Please (it won’t) verify. 4” contour runs through my house in west carroll

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2 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said:

Well. The roads are clear again. This rain is basically washing all the snow away. 

No worries. You’ll likely wake up to a white ground

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2 minutes ago, jayyy said:

No worries. You’ll likely wake up to a white ground

That would be nice.

 

Ground is still white here but everything is melting/getting washed away so fast.

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6 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said:

That would be nice.

 

Ground is still white here but everything is melting/getting washed away so fast.

My fellow weenie / brother down in olney off 108 said the same. 

My folks on the other hand... 24 and heavy snow - expecting 12-16” 30 mins NW of NYC. I’m not not jealous. 

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10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Me and the 18z euro:wub:

Hrrr says final batch is sleet for me.  Hoping those euro maps are right...

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Changeover line on CC radar is heading east/NE through Luray at the moment. Behind it explains why we have snow reports on the 81 corridor. If that's the case, the column should support snow again before that slug moves in. @WxUSAFthoughts?

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7” officially sent to LWX. Nice crunchy top to my snow. Sleet/freezing rain 

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Just now, DDweatherman said:

Changeover line on CC radar is heading east/NE through Luray at the moment. Behind it explains why we have snow reports on the 81 corridor. If that's the case, the column should support snow again before that slug moves in. @WxUSAFthoughts?

Not sure.  I'm not sure if the precip is leading in the better thermal profiles or if they are decoupled somewhat.  Hrrr suggests they're somewhat decoupled.  Wish I could see Euro skew-t's.  

But that mix area on CC radar is definitely becoming clearer as it moves toward the east.  

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16 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Me and the 18z euro:wub:

Yea that's definitely the mix line working back east on the 0.5° CC. I like our chances on the back end, at least north of I-70.

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1 minute ago, mappy said:

7” officially sent to LWX. Nice crunchy top to my snow. Sleet/freezing rain 

LOVE that you guys did well over in N BalCo! Congrats on the 7

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea that's definitely the mix line working back east on the 0.5° CC. I like our chances on the back end, at least north of I-70.

How about a couple miles south of I-70??:yikes:

 

On a different note, the airport snow totals are pretty lol-tastic compared to surrounding spotter reports.  

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

How about a couple miles south of I-70??:yikes:

 

On a different note, the airport snow totals are pretty lol-tastic compared to surrounding spotter reports.  

Always is. It's pathetic how bad the numbers are. Need to change the location of the official report or find some people that know what they are doing.

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Checking back in [mention]mappy [/mention]. About 5-6” with sleet here near MDT for the past two hours.

So um, same boat.

-MM

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27 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea that's definitely the mix line working back east on the 0.5° CC. I like our chances on the back end, at least north of I-70.

I’m thinking a line from walkersville to thurmont and points NE have a shot - albeit small -  at a few inches if the stars (column cooling & precip) align. Think the far NW crew may just be too far west with a low moving away from the area and south of 70 in Howard / Baltimore counties is probably too far south for any meaningful QPF.  

backend snow rarely pans out ... BUT it definitely can from time to time. Experienced my fair share of backend thumps growing up in the near NW suburbs of NYC. Places 15-20 mins north of me in Bear mountain and points NNW would see all snow 12+“ from a nor’easter - meanwhile we’d see a few inches on the front end, go to sleet / IR at the height as the low passed by offshore, and end as snow as the low pulled away south of Long Island. Granted they are in a better location up there for this to occur, but it can definitely happen here as well.  

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Called 5-8" here in our neck of the woods in northern Carroll. If the backend does anything like the Euro said, I'll barely bust low, otherwise its a pretty spot on forecast. Sitting at 7" after part 1. 

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So...stuck at 4 inches in Emmitsburg. Hoping to see some more later this evening. Not really a successful chase but whatcanyoudo. My lab has been ecstatic which is a win and we just had a romp through a field so, that makes me happy to see her happy. 
 

I would be happier if I could connect to to net here at the hotel, but, cest la vie.

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Leesburg (KJYO), Dulles, Hagerstown (HGR) and Martinsburg (KMRB) all have NW winds now. 

... And Dulles has dropped to 31F after being at 34F earlier this evening.

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