Round Hill WX

The STJ low pressure is well sampled so I wouldn't focus on it. Instead, the vort that is currently modeled to push the storm off the SE coast is just now in the area of the Arctic Ocean/Alaska. That area is data sparse. Even satellite data is limited due to the cold temperatures that can interfere with satellite data ingestion. This vort will be the focus....

I tried to attach hours 54-102 of the 6z GFS plot I posted above, but it exceeds the amount of MBs allowed. But if you go to TT and GIF between those hours, you can really see the dynamics occurring. The wave breaking around 60W is the initial confluence. It slightly relaxes as the STJ storm is moving along the GOM, which gives it a chance to gain latitude, but then the northern stream energy comes flying in to finish the job. You were correct in asking about the high pressure because it is "blocking" the storm, but the mechanism keeping the high so stoutly in place are the items I mentioned. IMO, to get this storm to shift north, the vort energy diving into Quebec will have to come in delayed or further north. For that to happen, the tropospheric wave break will need to be less intense. Also, there has been discussion about better ridging out west(Boise ID rule) that could help. In theory that is true, however, the retrograding wave break will to be the driver once the storm reaches the east coast. I hope you get to use your snow blower!

It’s not the high pressure that is our problem. It is the 2 features circled. The energy diving into Quebec is pushing our storm eastward. The other circle over ~60W is a wave breaking tropospheric piece of energy which is creating the confluence over the northeast, also shunting the southern stream LP eastward without latitude gain.

Yes...

Yes, time and manpower are what is limiting the transition until later next year.

Confluence from the north is ALWAYS overdone at this range. It’ll be Wednesday/Thursday before it is resolved.

Any other Wheeler Walker Jr. fans up in here? If you don't know who this man is...well...give him a listen...he is a GD legend.

Agree. During the early part of the winter season, a -EPO is more likely to deliver cold than a -NAO for the Mid-Atlantic. Obviously doesn't hurt to have a supportive NAO regime but as we saw in 2014, a -EPO can be money for us.

SCUD and Chuck(Afewuniversesbelow). Just awful and I wonder if they are one in the same?

16 years on these wx boards and I "ignored" my first 2 posters ever. Their posts suck...or maybe I'm just getting old....either way, it feels great!

30 with freezing drizzle in Round Hill. Car, deck, etc have a glaze on them. Gonna be a gnarly day to put up the Christmas lights....

Mainly snow in Round Hill. Gonna be a white thanksgiving!

I’m in Lakepoint...it’s a hill that sits about 150’ higher than “downtown” Round Hill.

Round Hill 28/26. Just shy of 6”...sleet now mixing in.

Little man loves it!