caviman2201 Posted December 17, 2020 Something I'm not understanding... maybe someone smart can explain it to me. According to SPC Mesoanalysis, the SLP has basically taken a perfect track - the kind of track that had models spitting out ridiculous totals for us even along I95. The models (at least the runs over the past 24h) seemed to have nailed the event for I95 - quick thump, quick changeover, rain rest of the event, 1-3". What I'm not understanding is that the models came to that conclusion based on an SLP that tracked basically right over Delmarva. The SLP didn't do that - its at least 25-50 miles east of all guidance but we still ended up with the same result. Am I missing something? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
midatlanticweather Posted December 17, 2020 Flipping now. 2020_12_16_21_43_36.mp4 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
poolz1 Posted December 17, 2020 Mod snow...large flakes. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mattie g Posted December 17, 2020 Raining in Burke. Dang...just a little coating to end the day would be nice. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mimiof2 Posted December 17, 2020 Sharpsburg, MD 420' ASL 9:30pm 24 degrees and snowing. It's not pouring but its snowing a good clip. I believe we changed over from sleet about 9pm. I guesstimate we got maybe 1/8 of an inch in sleet accumulation. Hoping that its starts puking snow again! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2020 How did DC and Baltimore do? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
LP08 Posted December 17, 2020 Back down to 32 after a high of 32 in N. Arlington. “Hearing” the rain now so some sleet is in there. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mattie g Posted December 17, 2020 1 minute ago, mattie g said: Raining in Burke. Dang...just a little coating to end the day would be nice. Scratch that - it’s all sleet now. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ravensrule Posted December 17, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: How did DC and Baltimore do? DC got about an inch and Baltimore got between 2-3.5” Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PWC Split Posted December 17, 2020 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: How did DC and Baltimore do? Hopefully you get as much snow as DC and Baltimore did. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yeoman Posted December 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: How did DC and Baltimore do? 12" lollies 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
psuhoffman Posted December 17, 2020 8 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: And as @psuhoffman said the NAM was out, it throws us some snow tonight on the 0z. I wrote that up before any 0z guidance came out...the 12k did jump on board...not to the extent of the euro and rgem/hrdps but a significant move to that camp. The 3k still wants none of it. It took a tiny step, it sees it now...but it develops the banding to our northeast in PA. That is very possible...but so is the euro idea...or anything in between. The 12k NAM is also warmer...more of if would be mix...but that is a function of it not developing as robust a banding signature to cool the column. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MDphotog Posted December 17, 2020 17 minutes ago, LP08 said: I have family in Scranton, they have travel emergency notices going to their phones. I hope to be getting pics tomorrow morning. I can believe it, check out google maps traffic, that is a lot of interstate closures in that area. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jayyy Posted December 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, caviman2201 said: Something I'm not understanding... maybe someone smart can explain it to me. According to SPC Mesoanalysis, the SLP has basically taken a perfect track - the kind of track that had models spitting out ridiculous totals for us even along I95. The models (at least the runs over the past 24h) seemed to have nailed the event for I95 - quick thump, quick changeover, rain rest of the event, 1-3". What I'm not understanding is that the models came to that conclusion based on an SLP that tracked basically right over Delmarva. The SLP didn't do that - its at least 25-50 miles east of all guidance but we still ended up with the same result. Am I missing something? 850 low never closed off, allowing warm air to scream north. It’s early winter, barely below freezing, with relatively warm ocean waters compared to deep winter. If we had a closed 850 low south of here, this was an easy 12+ area wide 3 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DDweatherman Posted December 17, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: I wrote that up before any 0z guidance came out...the 12k did jump on board...not to the extent of the euro and rgem/hrdps but a significant move to that camp. The 3k still wants none of it. It took a tiny step, it sees it now...but it develops the banding to our northeast in PA. That is very possible...but so is the euro idea...or anything in between. The 12k NAM is also warmer...more of if would be mix...but that is a function of it not developing as robust a banding signature to cool the column. With the changeover coming W to E just west of us now, I’d favor better thermals occurring. Does the current swath now basically pivot to the NW/SE orientation? Or are we refiring more Precip again. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MN Transplant Posted December 17, 2020 4 minutes ago, caviman2201 said: Something I'm not understanding... maybe someone smart can explain it to me. According to SPC Mesoanalysis, the SLP has basically taken a perfect track - the kind of track that had models spitting out ridiculous totals for us even along I95. The models (at least the runs over the past 24h) seemed to have nailed the event for I95 - quick thump, quick changeover, rain rest of the event, 1-3". What I'm not understanding is that the models came to that conclusion based on an SLP that tracked basically right over Delmarva. The SLP didn't do that - its at least 25-50 miles east of all guidance but we still ended up with the same result. Am I missing something? The exact position of the surface low didn’t end up mattering as much as the upper air features. The 850 low, which is both broad and late developing, is basically over DC allowing the warm air to flood in. We always want an 850 track to the south of DC by a fair margin. 4 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, Yeoman said: 12" lollies I am honored to have been trolled by Yeoman lol 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ErinInTheSky Posted December 17, 2020 3 hours ago, leesburg 04 said: You ain't kidding too bad 5 people have felt it important to tell us it ain't happening Holy crap that gives me like 6-8" in Germantown. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DDweatherman Posted December 17, 2020 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: With the changeover coming W to E just west of us now, I’d favor better thermals occurring. Does the current swath now basically pivot to the NW/SE orientation? Or are we refiring more Precip again. Check that, now back to snow mixed in down in Westminster even before the good returns move back in. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2020 4 minutes ago, PWC Split said: Hopefully you get as much snow as DC and Baltimore did. If I don't, you'll find me tits up in the Merrimack river. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 17, 2020 Think the dance has ended for us. Looks like from the motion on the radar that the low is really starting to scoot east. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MDphotog Posted December 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, jayyy said: 850 low never closed off, allowing warm air to scream north. It’s early winter, barely below freezing, with relatively warm ocean waters compared to deep winter. If we had a closed 850 low south of here, this was an easy 12+ area wide Is that why we didn’t see the usual pivot and spin on radar typical for winter storms? Or is that more of a different kind of storm? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ErinInTheSky Posted December 17, 2020 People are skidding all up and down Blunt Road near me and it's so unfortunate. That road is a car trap any time we have frozen precip. Also: Am I the only one that is fine with sleet fests? Like, seeing sleet just filled my heart with joy after the last 3-4 hours of rain. Getting a lot of sleet seems to add some good staying power. One of my most memorable storms was... was it 2017? With the absolute epic sleet bomb 3.5" of sleet in Gaithersburg. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MN Transplant Posted December 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: The exact position of the surface low didn’t end up mattering as much as the upper air features. The 850 low, which is both broad and late developing, is basically over DC allowing the warm air to flood in. We always want an 850 track to the south of DC by a fair margin. By the way, look at the ridiculous lack of northerly wind barbs in this image. Southerly 850s in Erie! 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ravensrule Posted December 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I am honored to have been trolled by Yeoman lol He would troll his own mother. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jayyy Posted December 17, 2020 My buddy lives in clearfield, PA and reported 3.8” in an hour. INSAAAAAANE 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
psuhoffman Posted December 17, 2020 4 minutes ago, jayyy said: 850 low never closed off, allowing warm air to scream north. It’s early winter, barely below freezing, with relatively warm ocean waters compared to deep winter. If we had a closed 850 low south of here, this was an easy 12+ area wide Exactly...ERS caught this early on and no one wanted to hear it but he was 100% right. December coastal with super warm SST and no closed mid level circulation is a big problem...nothing to cut off the easterly fetch to the north of the low. This could have worked in 2 ways...true arctic airmass, phased system. In the end we got the perfect track...the blocking did its dirty work...but other parts didn't come together. December is a HARD month to get a BIG snow here. We are almost better off with progressive wave type systems that cant scorch the mid levels with screaming easterlies. December is a good month to waste a good pattern unfortunately. But give me this look again...anytime between xmas and March 10...and I will take my chances. 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DDweatherman Posted December 17, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: Exactly...ERS caught this early on and no one wanted to hear it but he was 100% right. December coastal with super warm SST and no closed mid level circulation is a big problem...nothing to cut off the easterly fetch to the north of the low. This could have worked in 2 ways...true arctic airmass, phased system. In the end we got the perfect track...the blocking did its dirty work...but other parts didn't come together. December is a HARD month to get a BIG snow here. We are almost better off with progressive wave type systems that cant scorch the mid levels with screaming easterlies. December is a good month to waste a good pattern unfortunately. But give me this look again...anytime between xmas and March 10...and I will take my chances. Don’t look now but there is a slight pivot to a more N/S Orientation on our radar, and snow is picking up here with occasional pingers mixed in. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
osfan24 Posted December 17, 2020 Radar is definitely exploding but it looks like it's all advancing northeast rather quickly and the changeover line is lagging behind. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
notvirga! Posted December 17, 2020 4 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said: People are skidding all up and down Blunt Road near me and it's so unfortunate. That road is a car trap any time we have frozen precip. Also: Am I the only one that is fine with sleet fests? Like, seeing sleet just filled my heart with joy after the last 3-4 hours of rain. Getting a lot of sleet seems to add some good staying power. One of my most memorable storms was... was it 2017? With the absolute epic sleet bomb 3.5" of sleet in Gaithersburg. Nope I like it if it’s between choosing sleet or zrain because zrain practically never lives up to the hype. Also, one of my favorite all time storms was Valentine’s Day 2007 when we got 7 inches of sleet and froze solid the next day day and didn’t melt for weeks. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites