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WxUSAF

December 16-17, 2020 Winter Storm Obs/Nowcasting

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Well, the only bright side to this is that the WAA slug has looked better today for a thump for a lot of folks in the sub, and the western crew/northern tier can probably get to warning criteria if it performs well. 

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2 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

What a shame you shut the old thread so we all couldn't see Phins 9,000th post about Northern NH. 

You can see it, just can't make witty retorts.  

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Like I said in the other thread. Pretty consistent storm track on all of the models at 12z. Mouth of the bay, up the Delmarva. Looks decent for those of us out west. No matter how bad Phineas wants it to get for us. :) in all seriousness. With that track I would expect to see ice out this way after the initial thump. Need to maximize the first few hours. 

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1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

Well, the only bright side to this is that the WAA slug has looked better today for a thump for a lot of folks in the sub, and the western crew/northern tier can probably get to warning criteria if it performs well. 

Yeah, that's the takeaway for me today.  ~10am-4 or 5pm hopefully will look and feel like winter IMBY so I'll get a nice @Jebman Jebwalk and with some luck, maybe even exceed last year's total snowfall.  

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I know this won't pertain to everyone in the sub, but there's a little positive note on the 3km NAM which should be something to monitor in Hi Res trends over the next 24 hrs. Here is a snapshot of the 12 hr precip panel until 00z Thu for the Nest. I have drawn a rough outline of where the snow/sleet line is located based on model Composite Reflectivity and some sounding excavation.

Snow_Outline_12z_12_15_Nam_Nest.thumb.PNG.e787d13fb0f2e937d66f1057763f1154.PNG

Anything north of the line drawn was actually all snow in this picture. Usual caveats of snow ratios aside, even with an ~9:1 ratio on the southern periphery of the line drawn, this is a WSW criteria event with over 10" in spots prior to any sleet shift. Another positive is the 85H low location overnight. The Euro, the NAM Nest, and GFS all have 85H close off to the south over VA and trek to the NE between 03-09z. At this point, there is a bit of a curl in the precip delineation due to increased 850mb frontogen over the northern tier of the sub. This is shown on all the guidance I mentioned above. That is important as this will be a higher ratio snowfall as 850mb temps crash on the backside of the system and we go from borderline isothermal to a pure snow sounding with sufficient lift to generate a nice of snow. It sweeps west to east over the overnight period and can add 2-4" in a quick time frame for those north of I-70, perhaps further down 81. I think we'll see some steep gradients in snowfall with this storm with a hard slope SW to NE into PA. Something to watch.

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I understand the snow totals have been dwindling away over the past few model cycles.  However, are we still looking at a decent sleet event in the Baltimore Metro? Seems temperatures are hovering at freezing and the 850's are near that as well.  I understand things can shift or change, but as it stands with most model guidance.

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8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

You can see it, just can't make witty retorts.  

ha, i could still make one last funny post. 

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6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah, that's the takeaway for me today.  ~10am-4 or 5pm hopefully will look and feel like winter IMBY so I'll get a nice @Jebman Jebwalk and with some luck, maybe even exceed last year's total snowfall.  

Your backyard is practically mine. So fingers crossed for our Eastern HoCo crew to score at least a sample of winter.  

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Here's a gif of the Nest run. Keep an eye on the time frame between 03-09z. Watch the band develop out west and then pivot eastward. That is in conjunction to the frontogenic forcing at 85H as the low closes nearby.

Wrap_around.thumb.gif.917f64850effd38e63db4a4bbf216c99.gif

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:

now we know why he didnt come back

Yeah, he said he was never feeling this one, so kudos to him.  

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35/20   30.28  here in western Augusta County (Staunton area).   Should stay mostly snow here, with a possibility of a little ice mixing in around 4:00pm tomorrow before changing back to snow.  Probably 8:1 ratios or so with around 1" qpf.  Excited!!

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