WxUSAF

December 16-17, 2020 Winter Storm Obs/Nowcasting

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Well I don’t think we can say the euro handled this storm very well. Didn’t it have the low almost in Baltimore? It’s gonna be off the coast of MD/Del.

Gotta really give the NAM some props on this. It also had the smaller low over East Tn and that’s exactly what happened.

GFS didn’t either IMO

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Well I don’t think we can say the euro handled this storm very well. Didn’t it have the low almost in Baltimore? It’s gonna be off the coast of MD/Del.

Gotta really give the NAM some props on this. It also had the smaller low over East Tn and that’s exactly what happened.

Agree and the NAM did a nice job with mid level thermal profiles. As usual. 

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5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Well I don’t think we can say the euro handled this storm very well. Didn’t it have the low almost in Baltimore? It’s gonna be off the coast of MD/Del.

Gotta really give the NAM some props on this. It also had the smaller low over East Tn and that’s exactly what happened.

GFS didn’t either IMO

Euro's low location was awful but it flooded the midlevels with warmth up into PA and did a good job nailing that.

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This stuff moving into Ashburn now is sleet instead of freezing rain which is nice, since the trees were starting to get pretty heavy. Hoping the changeover doesn't stall out just to the west... I see it creeping past upperville toward philomont now. That terrain is up in the 500-600 foot range though

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2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Really impressed with the staying power of the snow.  At least .75” liquid on top of 1.5” of snow and it is largely still around.  There is still snow on our lighter colored car (not the darker one).

Agree - the ground was not all THAT cold, but just cold enough.  Got down to 25 here last night just NW of Vienna, which helped.  Got almost 2" today before the flip to rain with only marginal sleet.  Much of the snow still remains, albeit the yard is a water logged swamp of mush.  

Max temp never got above 33F all day - we're just far enough away from Tyson's to be out of the immediate UHI effect, but not far enough...  Back down to 31 now with the wind shift out of the NW, and still raining.  If the band inbound from the SW holds, maybe the rates and mixing can change over to sn to give everyone a nice coating on top.  

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1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Nothing better than a nighttime Jeb walk with all of the Christmas lights up. Figured I better do it now in case we dont snow again this winter. Crisp and refreshing out.

Don’t be like that... it scares me.

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1 minute ago, SnowGolfBro said:

Down to 33 from a high of 35

You’d think that would be good.  If the upstairs was a fraction colder you’d be shoveling. 

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3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

50/50 snow & sleet? You’re at the leading edge of that precip shield too if so.

it's def waffling back and forth...as soon as missiles start falling it goes back to sleet.  Its certainly a fight right now upstairs

eta: The mix certainly coincided with a heavy precip 

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11 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

Pouring sleet outside now. Hope the switch to snow is imminent 

 

8 minutes ago, EB89 said:

Heavy sleet here. I think I spot the very rare flake mixed in. 

That would be a little ahead of the CC mix line then.  Interesting.

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