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Everything posted by chris21

  1. Lol at the extreme synoptic differences between the gfs and para and cmc after day 4. Just for posterity... the cmc and the 00z ec are very close synoptically with the para in that camp as well. What’s 30 degrees and a couple inches of qpf between friends anyway. CMC with a completely different solution as well bringing cold and snow showers next weekend.
  2. As an avid fisherman... It’s honestly kind of brutal until the bay warms up to around 65. Last year, even down in Lusby, east flow caused temps in the mid 50s and drizzle on Memorial Day weekend.
  3. Para actually looks a lot closer to the Euro at 6z. Interesting to see such a crazy divergence between the American models going forward.
  4. I’ve been on the bay during some nasty storms... you no doubt prevented a bad situation... having experienced the 2012 derecho, a small boat in open water in the bay most likely would have capsized very quickly in 70-80 mph straight line winds.
  5. Absolutely dumping in Canaan per the white grass webcams. From a brief analysis of the data on Canaan snow, the 23 inch snowpack there appears to have a remarkable liquid equivalent (over 8 inches of qpf has fallen as snow with little melting for the past two months).
  6. Legit light-mid snow in nw dc. 32/24. Sticking on all exposed surfaces.
  7. Same. Shad should be running in three-four weeks even if it’s cold.
  8. I’ll say this... I have a snowboarding trip to Canaan on March 4-7th.... not too worried about it being wintery. Look at the 12z models. Being a resident of dc for 30 years... spring doesn’t come cheap.
  9. Lol... que the 12z runs gfs/para and a persistent east coast trough with a building -NAO. Wouldn’t bet against March blocking this year given the seasonal trends (really going back to last fall).
  10. Light snow (rimed flakes) coming down at a decent clip in adams Morgan/mt. Pleasant. 29.
  11. In a winter where guidance has consistently struggled... I’m still stunned by the divergence between the gfs/para and really all of the other models (although most now depict a tenth of inch of qpf). 18z GFS shows a really nasty ice storm overnight.
  12. That works until it doesn’t lol. When there is an actual snow event it will almost always under forecast totals.
  13. They tried to plow my street in dc (there is a fire station on our street) and failed miserably. Honestly they just made it worse.
  14. If you look at the total qpf panels from the short range models and the nam nest, it looks like even at 18z they average just under a tenth inch of qpf basically areawide (ice/snow) overnight. Def a misty/freezing drizzle type look either way.
  15. Def not a precip hole in the slightest. DC actually has more qpf than regions to the north. It is more sleet than snow on the euro however. Edit: I see you said snow hole! No argument there
  16. GFS and Para hold serve with 3-6 inches for the cities before sleet and then freezing rain. Still printing out over an inch of frozen qpf with temps in the 20s.
  17. Looking at the high location and strength of the wedge across the models... I’d doubt Annapolis sees 33 and rain. Solomons Island? My former alma mater St. Mary’s? Absolutely
  18. I’ll take the 12z in DC... over 1 inch qpf of snow/sleet by 18z.
  19. I see temps between 25-28 for the duration of the storm in dc-Balt on the 06z NAM
  20. NAM was terrible with the ice storm. Let’s see what the models have to say today... still over 18 hours from the event with plenty of divergence from models. Not sure we can make definitive statements about how this storm will turn out yet.
  21. Still looks real cold at the surface... do you mean upstairs?
  22. 06z Euro is still a high impact winter storm with very cold temps. Just more sleet and some freezing rain in dc rather than snow. This time it won’t be rain...
  23. 00z Euro was better for snow over the dc-Balt area.
  24. Lol! Absolutely true in the dc region. Luckily we are essentially within 36 hours and every hour that ticks by without a sudden shift makes that less likely.