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chris21

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Everything posted by chris21

  1. chris21
    They tried to plow my street in dc (there is a fire station on our street) and failed miserably. Honestly they just made it worse.
  2. chris21
    If you look at the total qpf panels from the short range models and the nam nest, it looks like even at 18z they average just under a tenth inch of qpf basically areawide (ice/snow) overnight. Def a misty/freezing drizzle type look either way.
  3. chris21
    Def not a precip hole in the slightest. DC actually has more qpf than regions to the north. It is more sleet than snow on the euro however. Edit: I see you said snow hole! No argument there
  4. chris21
    GFS and Para hold serve with 3-6 inches for the cities before sleet and then freezing rain. Still printing out over an inch of frozen qpf with temps in the 20s.
  5. chris21
    Looking at the high location and strength of the wedge across the models... I’d doubt Annapolis sees 33 and rain. Solomons Island? My former alma mater St. Mary’s? Absolutely
  6. chris21
    I’ll take the 12z in DC... over 1 inch qpf of snow/sleet by 18z.
  7. chris21
    I see temps between 25-28 for the duration of the storm in dc-Balt on the 06z NAM
  8. chris21
    NAM was terrible with the ice storm. Let’s see what the models have to say today... still over 18 hours from the event with plenty of divergence from models. Not sure we can make definitive statements about how this storm will turn out yet.
  9. chris21
    Still looks real cold at the surface... do you mean upstairs?
  10. chris21
    06z Euro is still a high impact winter storm with very cold temps. Just more sleet and some freezing rain in dc rather than snow. This time it won’t be rain...
  11. chris21
    00z Euro was better for snow over the dc-Balt area.
  12. chris21
    Lol! Absolutely true in the dc region. Luckily we are essentially within 36 hours and every hour that ticks by without a sudden shift makes that less likely.
  13. chris21
    You could always say that and be right 90 percent of the time. However, doubt the models have the placement of the Thursday night precip locked down 48 hours in advance when they just started showing wraparound precip for the first time 12 hours ago.
  14. chris21
    Looks really different from the dec storm... what are the similarities?
  15. chris21
    That’s just the nws discussion from lwx. Pretty sure they will lift watches with the afternoon package given the 12z runs.
  16. chris21
    If the temps are in the 20s it certainly will. On March 9th, 1999, the streets of dc were covered in over 7 inches of snow from a daytime event in mid March. How would you explain that?
  17. chris21
    How about the three day storm less than three weeks ago?
  18. chris21
    There’s no doubt there is more snow in the initial thump in dc at least than 00z... check the soundings..Held steady with qpf in the dc metro.
  19. chris21
    Check out their snowfall accumulation maps.
  20. chris21
    For those keeping track... this a far better run snow wise than 00z for the dc metro at least.
  21. chris21
    Hope they start trending toward the globals but have they ever not been amped and north? It’s anecdotal but I feel like anytime there is a southern slider we can at least count on the srefs to throw us .50 of digital qpf when everything else is dry.
  22. chris21
    Suppression fail crew has already taken the 00z shift away from the warm fail crew.
  23. chris21
    Was on a terrible streak but nailed the ice storm from impressive range and consistency.
  24. chris21
    Strongly disagree, could barely walk outside my house Saturday and sat night. It didn’t accumulate anywhere? NWS reported a .25 inch ice in adams Morgan.
  25. chris21
    Ehhh... happens a lot... but we just had a high impact freezing rain event two days ago that was apparently “impossible in dc” even though I’ve seen it many times.
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