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chris21

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Everything posted by chris21

  1. chris21
    By October 20th, even the leaves in the high elevation areas in the Allegheny mountain region of West Virginia are long gone. Already have had many nights in the upper 20s and lower 30s out that way. Can’t imagine leaves would still be out in NNE.
  2. chris21
    The coolest anomalies have always rarely made it to the coast following fall fropa in my experience.
  3. chris21
    Sun is out just east of DC in Riverdale.
  4. chris21
    A position diametrically opposed to the latest SPC discussion.
  5. chris21
    Looks like models might be setting up a second, lesser qpf max from dc-south jersey
  6. chris21
    Ehhh... the models are going to struggle with the placement of the heaviest rains as is typical in this situation. Either way, a lot of times the east side of these storms is where the most action occurs.
  7. chris21
    We get more triple digit heat than we ever did before. Check out the new averages.
  8. chris21
    Actually snowed 5-6 inches on the bay in Ridge, MD mid April in 2006 or 2007. Crazy intense nighttime snow squalls. Melted from the ground up!
  9. chris21
    I know it's incredibly rare but 3/29/84 is a good example of a late season anafrontal snow.
  10. chris21

    Monday Snow event

    chris21 replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic

    The ole’ Chincoteague late March jackpot.
  11. chris21
    Sounds good to me also! Heading to Canaan valley for a long weekend 5-8th hoping for some upslope. After that... fishing season is on!! Also the season for hanging out on the patio with some cold ones and 73-74 dead on the stereo.
  12. chris21
    Wow... the gefs is kind of on an island with regard to next weekend then. Looks quite colder than normal across guidance unless I’m missing something.
  13. chris21
    Is the circus in town?
  14. chris21
    Lol at the extreme synoptic differences between the gfs and para and cmc after day 4. Just for posterity... the cmc and the 00z ec are very close synoptically with the para in that camp as well. What’s 30 degrees and a couple inches of qpf between friends anyway. CMC with a completely different solution as well bringing cold and snow showers next weekend.
  15. chris21
    As an avid fisherman... It’s honestly kind of brutal until the bay warms up to around 65. Last year, even down in Lusby, east flow caused temps in the mid 50s and drizzle on Memorial Day weekend.
  16. chris21
    Para actually looks a lot closer to the Euro at 6z. Interesting to see such a crazy divergence between the American models going forward.
  17. chris21
    I’ve been on the bay during some nasty storms... you no doubt prevented a bad situation... having experienced the 2012 derecho, a small boat in open water in the bay most likely would have capsized very quickly in 70-80 mph straight line winds.
  18. chris21
    Absolutely dumping in Canaan per the white grass webcams. From a brief analysis of the data on Canaan snow, the 23 inch snowpack there appears to have a remarkable liquid equivalent (over 8 inches of qpf has fallen as snow with little melting for the past two months).
  19. chris21
    Legit light-mid snow in nw dc. 32/24. Sticking on all exposed surfaces.
  20. chris21
    Same. Shad should be running in three-four weeks even if it’s cold.
  21. chris21
    I’ll say this... I have a snowboarding trip to Canaan on March 4-7th.... not too worried about it being wintery. Look at the 12z models. Being a resident of dc for 30 years... spring doesn’t come cheap.
  22. chris21
    Lol... que the 12z runs gfs/para and a persistent east coast trough with a building -NAO. Wouldn’t bet against March blocking this year given the seasonal trends (really going back to last fall).
  23. chris21
    Light snow (rimed flakes) coming down at a decent clip in adams Morgan/mt. Pleasant. 29.
  24. chris21
    In a winter where guidance has consistently struggled... I’m still stunned by the divergence between the gfs/para and really all of the other models (although most now depict a tenth of inch of qpf). 18z GFS shows a really nasty ice storm overnight.
  25. chris21
    That works until it doesn’t lol. When there is an actual snow event it will almost always under forecast totals.
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