chris21
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Everything posted by chris21
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I’m down in Davis, 23 and light snow. Ridges have decent ice build. Light freezing rain at 24 degrees made the drive in on 48 pretty dicey.
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Low position is significantly further north at 105.
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While very true, this pattern has already dropped ten inches of snow on dc one week into January.
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Nov/Dec 95 were relatively cold as well.
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again, I’m not sure you’re looking at the latest 12z GFS run. I see far more than an inch accumulated in the next 384 hours and no fewer than three distinct threats with cold air entrenched essentially throughout the run.
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Are we looking at the same weather model? The 12z GFS is a dream in the extended. All of that snow predicted on the first two frames fell yesterday.
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Awesome! Enjoy, check out hellbenders and stumptown while you are there. @jonjon
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As someone who used to live out there and goes several times a year… if you have four wheel drive and you’re experienced in driving in the snow you’ll be fine (the visibility will be zero without a doubt once you climb Mt. Storm and summit the Allegheny plateau). If not you will have serious issues because the snow will be very deep on corridor H.
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The HRRR is seriously chasing convection (could be dead on). But it’s low track compared to the gfs is starkly different for -6 hours until snow starts falling.
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I used to live in Asheville and near the Tennessee border in Jackson county, NC. East Tennessee is a really tough place to number one forecast snow and number two get snow. The mountains often break up much of the moisture or the moisture skips east or west. The valley locations are much drier than the mountaintops (much like western Colorado). At this point, I’d assume it’s snowing up high and raining or dry in the valleys but don’t think it matters much as far as sensible weather in the dmv.
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GFS still holding quite steady. Wow.
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It’s 12z run snow maps are a bit wonky. It depicts .2-.3 qpf with temps below freezing and little or no snow accumulation.
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That map looks far far different on pivotal.
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Got down to 21 in adams Morgan close to rock creek park.
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December 2021 Medium/Long Range Discussion Thread
chris21 replied to North Balti Zen's topic in Mid Atlantic
That ended up being an epic surprise storm for my current location at the time, Candler, NC (just west of Asheville). Forecast was for less than an inch and even though short range modeling picked up on a 2-4 deal at the last minute we ended up with 11-12 inches and then an inch or so of upslope that night with blowing snow and blizzard conditions. -
December 2021 Medium/Long Range Discussion Thread
chris21 replied to North Balti Zen's topic in Mid Atlantic
Ha! That’s the only thing we’re not due for. Maybe 10 heartbreaks a year since 2016? -
December 2021 Medium/Long Range Discussion Thread
chris21 replied to North Balti Zen's topic in Mid Atlantic
It might not end up helping us much, but Canada is frigid this go around whereas last year Canada was almost completely above normal. -
The 12z Ukie showing a large area of -30-45 degree departures in south central Canada at 144 including a couple -30 F readings. Pretty chilly for November...
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Epic -NAO on the 12z gfs 200 hrs plus out. Upslope machine could be ramping up early this year.
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At least the ensembles don’t really support the op at all but yeah it’s ugly.
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Ha, has the opposite at 12z. Wouldn't pay attention to 300 hours plus, massive flip flopping and struggles in the EPO region.
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That would be the lowest all time snowfall total for Davis, WV by at least 40 inches. Extremely bold call there. Some of Tucker County is in the 10-20 inch zone.
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If you go just a bit further south into Tucker County, average goes up to 150-160. Had a nice snow pack for essentially all of meteorological winter there last year.
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99-2000 was a decent nina. Pretty epic surprise snowstorm and several borderline events. 98-99 was also a nina that featured a major ice storm in January and another epic surprise snow in March along with a couple threats that just missed in March.
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I'll be in Davis so I'm ALL IN
