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chris21

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Everything posted by chris21

  1. chris21
    Kind of all over the place... the para is a fair amount wetter at 18z. Gfs is a little drier but includes more sleet now. RGEM is a nasty ice storm with over .3, icon is .4 and euro is .4. 3k was a lot wetter at 18z than 12z and the NAM was pretty much the same.
  2. chris21
    That 99’ storm was really brutal in Bethesda. Power out for a week and extensive tree damage even though the temp warmed up to 50 the next day. Not sure anyone has been forecasting that (3/4 inch of ice)... but an RGEM/euro combo would be a warning level Ice storm in the district with temps in the 20s.
  3. chris21
    It gets about .2 qpf up to dc.
  4. chris21
    I think even .03 of freezing rain in these temps in dc would be more impactful than any event we’ve had. I could be wrong... just my experience with ice events with cold temps.
  5. chris21
    I think this will actually be the most impactful event in dc so far this winter. Not saying much...
  6. chris21
    Lol! I’d say the NAM pretty much held serve. Roughly .2 of qpf at 12z with maybe .16 at 18z. The 3k is a lot wetter though... it had no precip within 50 miles of dc in the 12z run. Goalposts prob narrowing but each model now shows between .15 and .4 of sleet/freezing rain falling with temps between 26 and 29.
  7. chris21
    RGEM would be over .2 qpf... a bit of sleet to freezing rain with temps around 26-29 in DC, while the icon went back to the idea of a half inch of ice with temps in the mid 20s at 12z.
  8. chris21
    I know everyone is rooting against the ice storm, but as psu mentioned, a stronger wave on sat would not allow the Sunday wave enough space to amp up.
  9. chris21
    I’m still seeing .15- .2 qpf of ice with temps of 28-29 in dc by hr. 42 with freezing rain ongoing.
  10. chris21
    Normally a day and a half out, I could look at that euro projection and be rather confident that it will at least be close to verification. Honestly though, lately, I might as well be looking at the 51 hour RAP.
  11. chris21
    You could do this nearly everyday for the past ten years if you are using DCA as an example. DCA is the warmest reading in the entire area at least 9/10 times. The city is usually 2-5 degrees colder (at least my weather station in mt pleasant is).
  12. chris21
    Lol, for next week? The 00z run I’m seeing has temps in the teens and low 20s. What’s your bar for cold?
  13. chris21
    It will still accumulate on everything (particularly at night) if the temp is 31 or below even with heavy rates, it just won’t be as efficient at accumulating.
  14. chris21
    It spits out a tenth of an inch of freezing rain which would actually still be impactful with a temp in the upper 20s. The GFS is the driest solution by a long shot at this point.
  15. chris21
    I bet this will be the one time we overperform. We certainly did with the ice two weeks ago.
  16. chris21
    Wow, the NAM is a lot more enthused about the ice prospects after a really dry run at 12z.
  17. chris21
    UK gets an inch to an inch and a half to dc.
  18. chris21
    Hey man... the HRRR has dc in some light snow tonight for the first time as of the latest run. I’m starting to care a bit more after this latest debacle.
  19. chris21
    CMC really beefed up qpf for Saturday. Kind of surprised to see that to be honest.
  20. chris21
    This could also be why March has become more of a winter month in dc lately.
  21. chris21
    It will snow again in DC!!
  22. chris21
    We had a nice ice storm that accumulated on the roads here in nw dc less than two weeks ago.
  23. chris21
    35/31 rain snow mix in NW.
  24. chris21
    Yeah... the trends def are not good but we have a major issue with calling a storm before it even starts. The last three day snowfall was an excellent example... everyone was whining and bitching for days but we still managed 5.5 beautiful inches in nw and I enjoyed it thoroughly. Some of our members would should check out Marcus Aurelius’ Meditations.
  25. chris21
    We have busted high many a time. Most recently Jan 2019 was a nice positive bust.
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