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chris21

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Everything posted by chris21

  1. chris21
    Para actually looks a lot closer to the Euro at 6z. Interesting to see such a crazy divergence between the American models going forward.
  2. chris21
    I’ve been on the bay during some nasty storms... you no doubt prevented a bad situation... having experienced the 2012 derecho, a small boat in open water in the bay most likely would have capsized very quickly in 70-80 mph straight line winds.
  3. chris21
    Absolutely dumping in Canaan per the white grass webcams. From a brief analysis of the data on Canaan snow, the 23 inch snowpack there appears to have a remarkable liquid equivalent (over 8 inches of qpf has fallen as snow with little melting for the past two months).
  4. chris21
    Legit light-mid snow in nw dc. 32/24. Sticking on all exposed surfaces.
  5. chris21
    Same. Shad should be running in three-four weeks even if it’s cold.
  6. chris21
    I’ll say this... I have a snowboarding trip to Canaan on March 4-7th.... not too worried about it being wintery. Look at the 12z models. Being a resident of dc for 30 years... spring doesn’t come cheap.
  7. chris21
    Lol... que the 12z runs gfs/para and a persistent east coast trough with a building -NAO. Wouldn’t bet against March blocking this year given the seasonal trends (really going back to last fall).
  8. chris21
    Light snow (rimed flakes) coming down at a decent clip in adams Morgan/mt. Pleasant. 29.
  9. chris21
    In a winter where guidance has consistently struggled... I’m still stunned by the divergence between the gfs/para and really all of the other models (although most now depict a tenth of inch of qpf). 18z GFS shows a really nasty ice storm overnight.
  10. chris21
    That works until it doesn’t lol. When there is an actual snow event it will almost always under forecast totals.
  11. chris21
    They tried to plow my street in dc (there is a fire station on our street) and failed miserably. Honestly they just made it worse.
  12. chris21
    If you look at the total qpf panels from the short range models and the nam nest, it looks like even at 18z they average just under a tenth inch of qpf basically areawide (ice/snow) overnight. Def a misty/freezing drizzle type look either way.
  13. chris21
    Def not a precip hole in the slightest. DC actually has more qpf than regions to the north. It is more sleet than snow on the euro however. Edit: I see you said snow hole! No argument there
  14. chris21
    GFS and Para hold serve with 3-6 inches for the cities before sleet and then freezing rain. Still printing out over an inch of frozen qpf with temps in the 20s.
  15. chris21
    Looking at the high location and strength of the wedge across the models... I’d doubt Annapolis sees 33 and rain. Solomons Island? My former alma mater St. Mary’s? Absolutely
  16. chris21
    I’ll take the 12z in DC... over 1 inch qpf of snow/sleet by 18z.
  17. chris21
    I see temps between 25-28 for the duration of the storm in dc-Balt on the 06z NAM
  18. chris21
    NAM was terrible with the ice storm. Let’s see what the models have to say today... still over 18 hours from the event with plenty of divergence from models. Not sure we can make definitive statements about how this storm will turn out yet.
  19. chris21
    Still looks real cold at the surface... do you mean upstairs?
  20. chris21
    06z Euro is still a high impact winter storm with very cold temps. Just more sleet and some freezing rain in dc rather than snow. This time it won’t be rain...
  21. chris21
    00z Euro was better for snow over the dc-Balt area.
  22. chris21
    Lol! Absolutely true in the dc region. Luckily we are essentially within 36 hours and every hour that ticks by without a sudden shift makes that less likely.
  23. chris21
    You could always say that and be right 90 percent of the time. However, doubt the models have the placement of the Thursday night precip locked down 48 hours in advance when they just started showing wraparound precip for the first time 12 hours ago.
  24. chris21
    Looks really different from the dec storm... what are the similarities?
  25. chris21
    That’s just the nws discussion from lwx. Pretty sure they will lift watches with the afternoon package given the 12z runs.
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