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chris21

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Everything posted by chris21

  1. chris21
    That ended up being an epic surprise storm for my current location at the time, Candler, NC (just west of Asheville). Forecast was for less than an inch and even though short range modeling picked up on a 2-4 deal at the last minute we ended up with 11-12 inches and then an inch or so of upslope that night with blowing snow and blizzard conditions.
  2. chris21
    Ha! That’s the only thing we’re not due for. Maybe 10 heartbreaks a year since 2016?
  3. chris21
    It might not end up helping us much, but Canada is frigid this go around whereas last year Canada was almost completely above normal.
  4. chris21
    The 12z Ukie showing a large area of -30-45 degree departures in south central Canada at 144 including a couple -30 F readings. Pretty chilly for November...
  5. chris21
    Epic -NAO on the 12z gfs 200 hrs plus out. Upslope machine could be ramping up early this year.
  6. chris21
    At least the ensembles don’t really support the op at all but yeah it’s ugly.
  7. chris21
    Ha, has the opposite at 12z. Wouldn't pay attention to 300 hours plus, massive flip flopping and struggles in the EPO region.
  8. chris21

    Winter 2021-22

    chris21 replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic

    That would be the lowest all time snowfall total for Davis, WV by at least 40 inches. Extremely bold call there. Some of Tucker County is in the 10-20 inch zone.
  9. chris21
    If you go just a bit further south into Tucker County, average goes up to 150-160. Had a nice snow pack for essentially all of meteorological winter there last year.
  10. chris21

    Winter 2021-22

    chris21 replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic

    99-2000 was a decent nina. Pretty epic surprise snowstorm and several borderline events. 98-99 was also a nina that featured a major ice storm in January and another epic surprise snow in March along with a couple threats that just missed in March.
  11. chris21
    I'll be in Davis so I'm ALL IN
  12. chris21
    By October 20th, even the leaves in the high elevation areas in the Allegheny mountain region of West Virginia are long gone. Already have had many nights in the upper 20s and lower 30s out that way. Can’t imagine leaves would still be out in NNE.
  13. chris21
    The coolest anomalies have always rarely made it to the coast following fall fropa in my experience.
  14. chris21
    Sun is out just east of DC in Riverdale.
  15. chris21
    A position diametrically opposed to the latest SPC discussion.
  16. chris21
    Looks like models might be setting up a second, lesser qpf max from dc-south jersey
  17. chris21
    Ehhh... the models are going to struggle with the placement of the heaviest rains as is typical in this situation. Either way, a lot of times the east side of these storms is where the most action occurs.
  18. chris21
    We get more triple digit heat than we ever did before. Check out the new averages.
  19. chris21
    Actually snowed 5-6 inches on the bay in Ridge, MD mid April in 2006 or 2007. Crazy intense nighttime snow squalls. Melted from the ground up!
  20. chris21
    I know it's incredibly rare but 3/29/84 is a good example of a late season anafrontal snow.
  21. chris21

    Monday Snow event

    chris21 replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic

    The ole’ Chincoteague late March jackpot.
  22. chris21
    Sounds good to me also! Heading to Canaan valley for a long weekend 5-8th hoping for some upslope. After that... fishing season is on!! Also the season for hanging out on the patio with some cold ones and 73-74 dead on the stereo.
  23. chris21
    Wow... the gefs is kind of on an island with regard to next weekend then. Looks quite colder than normal across guidance unless I’m missing something.
  24. chris21
    Is the circus in town?
  25. chris21
    Lol at the extreme synoptic differences between the gfs and para and cmc after day 4. Just for posterity... the cmc and the 00z ec are very close synoptically with the para in that camp as well. What’s 30 degrees and a couple inches of qpf between friends anyway. CMC with a completely different solution as well bringing cold and snow showers next weekend.
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