chris21
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Everything posted by chris21
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December 2021 Medium/Long Range Discussion Thread
chris21 replied to North Balti Zen's topic in Mid Atlantic
Ha! That’s the only thing we’re not due for. Maybe 10 heartbreaks a year since 2016? -
December 2021 Medium/Long Range Discussion Thread
chris21 replied to North Balti Zen's topic in Mid Atlantic
It might not end up helping us much, but Canada is frigid this go around whereas last year Canada was almost completely above normal. -
The 12z Ukie showing a large area of -30-45 degree departures in south central Canada at 144 including a couple -30 F readings. Pretty chilly for November...
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Epic -NAO on the 12z gfs 200 hrs plus out. Upslope machine could be ramping up early this year.
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At least the ensembles don’t really support the op at all but yeah it’s ugly.
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Ha, has the opposite at 12z. Wouldn't pay attention to 300 hours plus, massive flip flopping and struggles in the EPO region.
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That would be the lowest all time snowfall total for Davis, WV by at least 40 inches. Extremely bold call there. Some of Tucker County is in the 10-20 inch zone.
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If you go just a bit further south into Tucker County, average goes up to 150-160. Had a nice snow pack for essentially all of meteorological winter there last year.
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99-2000 was a decent nina. Pretty epic surprise snowstorm and several borderline events. 98-99 was also a nina that featured a major ice storm in January and another epic surprise snow in March along with a couple threats that just missed in March.
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I'll be in Davis so I'm ALL IN
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October Discussion: Bring the Frost-Hold the Snow
chris21 replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
By October 20th, even the leaves in the high elevation areas in the Allegheny mountain region of West Virginia are long gone. Already have had many nights in the upper 20s and lower 30s out that way. Can’t imagine leaves would still be out in NNE. -
The coolest anomalies have always rarely made it to the coast following fall fropa in my experience.
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Sun is out just east of DC in Riverdale.
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A position diametrically opposed to the latest SPC discussion.
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Looks like models might be setting up a second, lesser qpf max from dc-south jersey
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Ehhh... the models are going to struggle with the placement of the heaviest rains as is typical in this situation. Either way, a lot of times the east side of these storms is where the most action occurs.
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We get more triple digit heat than we ever did before. Check out the new averages.
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Actually snowed 5-6 inches on the bay in Ridge, MD mid April in 2006 or 2007. Crazy intense nighttime snow squalls. Melted from the ground up!
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I know it's incredibly rare but 3/29/84 is a good example of a late season anafrontal snow.
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The ole’ Chincoteague late March jackpot.
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Sounds good to me also! Heading to Canaan valley for a long weekend 5-8th hoping for some upslope. After that... fishing season is on!! Also the season for hanging out on the patio with some cold ones and 73-74 dead on the stereo.
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Wow... the gefs is kind of on an island with regard to next weekend then. Looks quite colder than normal across guidance unless I’m missing something.
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Is the circus in town?
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Lol at the extreme synoptic differences between the gfs and para and cmc after day 4. Just for posterity... the cmc and the 00z ec are very close synoptically with the para in that camp as well. What’s 30 degrees and a couple inches of qpf between friends anyway. CMC with a completely different solution as well bringing cold and snow showers next weekend.
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As an avid fisherman... It’s honestly kind of brutal until the bay warms up to around 65. Last year, even down in Lusby, east flow caused temps in the mid 50s and drizzle on Memorial Day weekend.
