chris21

Hopefully, the 18z will bring it back!

In DC, we’ve actually had worse snow droughts. Look at the period from 1926-1932 . That being said, it’s still quite discouraging.

Guidance has tried to break down the blocking countless times in the past month and a half. Given previous similar blocking regimes, it usually does not just disappear... particularly after a coupled SSW. -PMM may affect the STJ but we may be heading toward a more favorable MJO by the time Feb rolls around.

Yeah, I wouldn’t get too depressed about that look on the gfs op at 200 hours plus. The features would only need to shift slightly for a significantly different outcome. Not impossible 200 hours out on an op.I’d rather it showed blue... but still.

Pretty stout west based neg nao doing it’s thing there.

I’ll take my chances with colder air and that beautiful west based block and -EPO.

It’s a fair amount cooler than it has been recently however so there’s that.

I’ll take that look all day and on Sunday. Overrunning galore. We might miss out on a couple Miller b’s but at least it will be active with the potential for something to travel under the block.

GFS looks good!

While they could be right for the wrong reasons I would tend to just look at the 850 mb anomalies. The long range 2m temp anomalies are atrocious to say the least.

Isotherm was more optimistic than I expected for sure.

If you are experienced with driving in snow in the mountains you’ll be fine. I was probably more adventurous than I should have been in my Camry but I never had any issues even in blizzard conditions. I will say that I lived near snowshoe for a couple years so Im relatively experienced with it. Even though it’s in the south, the counties to the north and west of Asheville average enough snow (between 40-90 inches) to be mostly on the ball with road clearing operations.

They have a tiny amount of big years and the average temps are warmer. I’m thinking more about NW DC/Bethesda climo than DCA. Most of their snow comes from 1 inch upslope events that melt within hours. Those same events dump lots of snow up high though.

Im looking at places in Roan, Beech and Boone. My gf is surprisingly ok with the 3500’ requirement so I’m going all in. If you live in Asheville it’s unbelievably easy to chase snow. Most spots are 20-30 minutes from decent upslope locations. The city itself normally misses out.

I used to live in Asheville and although there is elevation it is def less snowy than DC. They are def getting somewhat lucky so far.

It was 2007! My senior year of college at St. Mary’s.

Did you mean April 9, 2006? In Ridge, MD (a couple miles north of point lookout) there was 4-5 slushy inches in a short time period with crazy heavy snow. It was unbelievably cold for April also so piles and patches of it could be seen for 4 more days making it a real unusual landscape for far Southern Maryland in mid April.

Just so I’m clear. You are claiming that an undefined conglomerate of meteorologists forecasts were collectively precisely 14 percent wrong over an undefined time period. I’m just trying to follow your scientific logic here...

This post would prob make more sense in April. It’s only January 4th and the “best pattern since 96’” is still at least a week away. Other than 2009, there has almost always been a dearth of snow prior to January in the DC metro (at least in the past thirty years I’ve lived here).

I don’t want to give too much credence to this theory but I’ll say this. I lived in southern Maryland for 6-7 years between 2003 and 2009. I lived in Tall Timber’s, Lexington Park, St. Mary’s City, Ridge and Park Hall. Southern Maryland is muuuch warmer than the DC area in the Spring, Summer, Fall and Winter. The climo is terrible and humid and warm. Late fall is often warm and humid and storms that are a cold 4-6 inches in downtown dc are a touch of sleet to rain. We should prob try to be more aware of our climo and the fact that the climo in Martinsburg is drastically different than St. Mary’s City.

I know there is a lot of frustration in southern Maryland over not seeing snow recently. Obviously, the earth is warming... however, pretty sure we don’t transition into a “subtropical climate” in the next ten years. Also not sure we saw a “golden age of snowstorms”... just been the same situation as always... we tend to go on hot streaks and of course... cold streaks.

Think he meant you should post your obs in the January thread!

Not sure where you live in DC, but where I live in NW we had an inch and a half of snow and some ice after that. Actually not bad for a storm in December.

Im going with this guy over psu, HM, and Webb.

It’s ripping now here in Canaan as well! 6 degrees, -9 wind chill. Merry Christmas!