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WxUSAF

December 16-17, 2020 Winter Storm Obs/Nowcasting

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4 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Really surprised to see snow mixing back in with the sleet.  Nothing crazy or accumulating but a change in the upper levels no doubt.

This is good to see. I just hit 30 degrees in Reisterstown and I have mostly ZR with a few pingers mixing in if the precip steps up the intensity. 

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1 minute ago, poolz1 said:

Really surprised to see snow mixing back in with the sleet.  Nothing crazy or accumulating but a change in the upper levels no doubt.

Winds have begun to shif back to the NNE instead of the SE winds we saw this afternoon. Definitely more snow than sleet falling right now here 5 miles N of Union bridge station 

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Final point to make is to not throw out the NAM if it might be outside it’s “wheel house”. At 48, 60, 72 hours we are not to accept its exact QPF or low position but more so it’s giving shorter range clues as to what might be happening with all the pieces sampled with the globals over the medium range, at lower resolution. The NAM outside its wheelhouse picked up on this pronounced warm injection, quick changeover. It’s QPF was way to high over the northern tier but we want features and potential evolution vs exact QPF amounts 2 to 3 days out. No forecaster in the weather business understands how to predict exact QPF, it’s like coastal flooding, smoke and mirrors at times and formulated with a blend of guidance. Focus on features and their evolution vs nailing down amounts and exact track.

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

This is good to see. I just hit 30 degrees in Reisterstown and I have mostly ZR with a few pingers mixing in if the precip steps up the intensity. 

Just spitting a flake here and there but something has to be changing around upstairs.  ZR and sleet the past few hours here as well.

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Just now, nw baltimore wx said:

You measured in the Ville before heading home from work?

Yes sir. I had my handy 25 footer with me. I didn't have a snowboard or any of that jazz but i measured in 5 areas around my office

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3 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Really surprised to see snow mixing back in with the sleet.  Nothing crazy or accumulating but a change in the upper levels no doubt.

Should be switching back for us over the next few hours

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Just now, poolz1 said:

Just spitting a flake here and there but something has to be changing around upstairs.  ZR and sleet the past few hours here as well.

That's good to hear. IF that stuff in SWVA makes it hear, makes me optimistic we can snow more without having to relay on vort snows swinging in overnight. 

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43 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Look at h5 vorticity/trough axis and orientation. The general idea going back a week or more was a trough going negative tilt to our west. I knew if that idea held, with ridging out in front, and a warm atlantic, my yard was fuucked.

Better off being you than the yard. 

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Just now, ravensrule said:

It had switched to 50/50 snow sleet mix and it was at 3.5"

Thanks. That jives with the Pimlico and another spotter nearby in the city. I’m ready for some backside love.

How’d you do? By the way, I rode Hillside yesterday on my bike and about wiped out on some black ice. That road is always so cold and shady. And pretty!

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1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Thanks. That jives with the Pimlico and another spotter nearby in the city. I’m ready for some backside love.

How’d you do? By the way, I rode Hillside yesterday on my bike and about wiped out on some black ice. That road is always so cold and shady. And pretty!

I hope your girlfriend is around tonight, i wouldn't count on the snow. I don't know because it was heavy sleet and ZR by the time i got home. Good for you, that street always is. I hope you are ok. I can barely make it on my Peleton i'm so lazy. 

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3 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

I hope your girlfriend is around tonight, i wouldn't count on the snow. I don't know because it was heavy sleet and ZR by the time i got home. Good for you, that street always is. I hope you are ok. I can barely make it on my Peleton i'm so lazy. 

She’s here but you may not approve. She’s more than two decades younger than me. :santa:

33 and getting hot in here.

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2 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

She’s here but you may not approve. She’s more than two decades younger than me. :santa:

33 and getting hot in here.

LOL. You are my new idol. It's probably closer to 69 and burning. 

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

Some higher CC returns down near Charlottesville.  Maybe the colder air sweeping in and precip there is sleet and snow?

We have gusty nw winds here. The cold aloft probably returns pretty quickly

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8 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Not snowing here either. But it is snowing west of Mount Jackson. As long as that slug down there holds together we are going to snow again. 

Check your messages 

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2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Some higher CC returns down near Charlottesville.  Maybe the colder air sweeping in and precip there is sleet and snow?

Was just about to post that. It does look like there's a change back to snow trying to occur. Also that's right where the leading edge of the 850/925 temps go back below freezing.

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