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December 16-17, 2020 Winter Storm Obs/Nowcasting


WxUSAF
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9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Don't look now, but SPC mesoanalysis has the surface low at 1000mb off the mouth of Chesapeake, well east of any of the warmer NAMs, eta. 

Too late. Damage is done. I have no idea how a storm that far south and east with a decent high to the north would flood us with warm air like this. 

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10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Don't look now, but SPC mesoanalysis has the surface low at 1000mb off the mouth of Chesapeake, well east of any of the warmer NAMs, eta. 

Best forcing and dynamics will be going north of our area. Wrap around CAA is always tricky. Areas closer to the Mason Dixon line would do better than areas further south. 

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28 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I'm liking our chances on the backside forumwide. That stuff over RNK's area is looking nice. 

      I am on board with those chances, but if you look at the simulated radars, the stuff near RNK actually comes through as another round of RA/IP/ZR later this evening.   The potential snow band just after midnight seems to form out over eastern WV with the upper trough axis and then rotates through our area.

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2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea it's a total nowcasting situation.

By the time the mid-levels return to snow sounding, all the forcing will be to our N/NE And we’ll be left with light snow and quick drying layers. Those from Winchester on wmeast are mostly done. Winchester might pull 1-2 more inches but lessburg on East is mostly snow tv  wth any backside moisture that falls as snow

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3 minutes ago, high risk said:

      I am on board with those chances, but if you look at the simulated radars, the stuff near RNK actually comes through as another round of RA/IP/ZR later this evening.   The potential snow band just after midnight seems to form out over eastern WV with the upper trough axis and then rotates through our area.

yeah, per HRRR, 850s definitely have not recovered by the time that first band/stuff swings through, which is a shame cause it's fairly heavy. 

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7 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Too late. Damage is done. I have no idea how a storm that far south and east with a decent high to the north would flood us with warm air like this. 

Look at h5 vorticity/trough axis and orientation. The general idea going back a week or more was a trough going negative tilt to our west. I knew if that idea held, with ridging out in front, and a warm atlantic, my yard was fuucked.

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