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About ers-wxman1

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Ashburn, VA

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  1. April 7-8 snow event

    I wouldn’t hang my hat on any one solution until after 12z Friday. Many pieces to the puzzle. For certain though the NS is stronger and the cold airmass may be stronger than previously modeled. That would suppress this system and not amplify. Looks like what is happening in the guidance, but just 24 hours ago we were dealing with northern trends bordering Ptype issues. Still a range of uncertainty and like my earlier post we are dealing with a dynamic spring system and it can still trend back north.
  2. April 7-8 snow event

    Models are likely not done fluctuating on the target snow areas. Couple things to factor in. For one we are dealing with a highly anomalous cold air intrusion. It’s a spring system so the battleground between the cold and warm is likely to be difficult to ascertain in the guidance. Convection breaking out on the boundary over the MS Valley could be overdone which can force the boundary too far south. If it’s underdone, boundary can progress to set up further north. Plus there are several pieces of energy coming into the trough from the PAC NW and Plains. A lot of moving parts, but either way we will be dealing with quite a dynamic system.
  3. April 7-8 snow event

    Euro has been unreliable most of the winter. It did the exact same thing with the March 20-21 storm. Gave the entire forum 20+ inches then stole it next run. This is a very tricky storm. Awaiting an “arctic airmass” in April as your only source of cold where a low develops along the boundary is rough in any month let alone spring. GFS is most consistent. Might still see a northward trend though and it won’t take too much to shift MA snow solely into the higher terrain and into NYC subforum.
  4. April Banter

    Two weeks ago I lucked out and was on Long Island for the winter storm. Residence was in the big snow band of 2-5”/hr rates. Ended up with over 12”. Areas just east of me got 20”.
  5. April Banter

    I was visiting family in Basking Ridge, NJ for Easter and got into the heavy snow bands. Very impressive event. Started at 4:00 am, roads caved immediately, snow ended at 11 am. Solid 6”. For April that’s unreal.
  6. April 2nd Snow Wave

    Good morning. I was up visiting family in Basking Ridge, NJ for the holidays. Measured 6”. Nice little storm, perfect timing before sunrise. Roads caved quick out here.
  7. March Mid/Long Range Disco 3

    FWIW...CMC for the second run in a row isshowing a wave coming in early next week bringing snow from northern VA to the Northeast. It’s the Canadian, but interesting how this cold pattern will not give out.
  8. March 20th-22nd Not So Suppressed Storm Obs

    Friend and colleague was in the band in Islip where they received 5” in one hour. He’s up to 14.8”.
  9. March 20th-22nd Not So Suppressed Storm Obs

    11” in Glen Cove. Band was amazing.
  10. March 20th-22nd Not So Suppressed Storm Obs

    Heaviest snow of the day in Glen Cove. Easily 1-2” per hour rates with that band. At least 8” on the ground. If we are going to pile up the accumulations, now is the time. Would expect this band to remain over the island reinforced over the next hour or two.
  11. March 20th-22nd Not So Suppressed Storm Obs

    That’s great. Nice area. Been there about 6 and 1/2 years.
  12. March 20th-22nd Not So Suppressed Storm Obs

    I’m currently at the NWS Ops Center in Silver Spring - HQ. Prior WFO’s in order included OKX, EWX, LUB, ABQ, and LWX.
  13. March 20th-22nd Not So Suppressed Storm Obs

    Btw...I’m Ken, originally from LI, visiting relatives here for the week. NWS Met. Nice to meet everyone. Thanks for the great model analysis the past few days.
  14. March 20th-22nd Not So Suppressed Storm Obs

    Glen Cove. Average measurement of 5.5 inches. Moderate snow. Heavier bands moving in. Should be getting into prime time stickage and rates between 8 pm and Midnight from central Suffolk to Nassau.
  15. March 20th-22nd Not So Suppressed Storm Obs

    moderate snow in Glen Cove, 3.5”. Snow is not accumulating well, more compacting. Should get better once the sun goes down and rates pick up.