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ers-wxman1

Meteorologist
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About ers-wxman1

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KIAD
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  • Location:
    Ashburn, VA

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  1. ers-wxman1

    2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    The only accurate camp.
  2. ers-wxman1

    2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    Impressive high resolution satellite loop of Florence eye. http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=loop_of_the_day/goes-16/20180910000000&number_of_images_to_display=400&loop_speed_ms=25
  3. ers-wxman1

    2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    UKMET is surely a historic flood event for our area if correct.
  4. ers-wxman1

    2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    GFS is overdone on the low pressure. There is simply no way we have a sub 915 low off the OBX spinning. Overamped pressure leads to changes in the pattern. Been doing this off and on. Euro a much better presentation of reality.
  5. ers-wxman1

    2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    There goes the GFS again, up to no good. Offshore stall is an outlier. This storm is headed straight for ILM/Outer Banks.
  6. ers-wxman1

    2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    No way the UK has a sub 910 low
  7. ers-wxman1

    2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    As a category 5 spinning like a top in upwelled water for days?
  8. ers-wxman1

    2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    GFS should be tossed. Embarrassing piece of numerical guidance tonight. waffling is normal at this range, but the intensity is way too strong. No way you get sub 910 low looping offshore of 35N latitude. Track is suspect. Go from monster rain to hardly a thing. It’s off. Euro, HMON, HWRF, ENS the way to go at this point.
  9. ers-wxman1

    2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    Flooding on the euro solution would be severe over NC and SE VA. Multiple tidal cycles and major riverine.
  10. ers-wxman1

    2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    Models will struggle with timing of the recurve for days.
  11. ers-wxman1

    2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    Euro has stronger ridge and therefore storm makes a bee line for the coast. Invest not much of a factor.
  12. ers-wxman1

    2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    ILM crushed
  13. ers-wxman1

    2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    GFS has a tendency to weaken the ridge too fast. I think this stall and loop is an outlier. Pretty clear at this point that the highest probability for any landfall or close approach is between SC and NC Outer Banks. Coastal scraper into NY/NE is out.
  14. ers-wxman1

    2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    Further north
  15. ers-wxman1

    2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    UKMET looks to stall near the NC/SC border at the end of its run.
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