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About ers-wxman1

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Ashburn, VA

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  1. PD3.5 Lite Obs and Nowcasting

    35F, moderate snow. Dusting on the ground, roads wet.
  2. PD3.5 Lite Obs and Nowcasting

    39F, Giant Wet snowflakes coming down. Temp dropped 3 degrees. Mulch, deck starting to whiten.
  3. Weekend Snowfest/Rainfest/Mixed Mess?

    Bust potential is high for sure. Eight times out of ten if you are having to rely on dynamical cooling in a marginal setup with warmer, wet ground, and potential for lull in higher rates it ends up a fail. I think sun angle does start to become a factor even before March. If I had to call a “jackpot area” I would say M/D line.
  4. Weekend Snowfest/Rainfest/Mixed Mess?

    I would not expect very much to accumulate in the immediate D.C. metro. Up to one inch of slop at best. I think 1-3” is feasible from northern Loudoun and up across north central and northern Maryland generally north of I-70. To get 4” amounts I think north of the M/D line and up across southern NE. Cold air will be quite marginal and dynamically driven whereas areas to our north stay closer to the retreating high with better cold air throughout the column.
  5. Weekend Snowfest/Rainfest/Mixed Mess?

    The whole difference on the 12z NAM is the evolution of the 500 wave. N/S digs just enough with upstream heights coming up. Bit stronger high, cold enough and low gets going well. WAA front end thump!
  6. February Banter Thread

    I’m thankful I went to OC for the “bomb cyclone”. The only storm I see all year. Sad tale this winter.
  7. Weekend Snowfest/Rainfest/Mixed Mess?

    I’m only seeing it out to 42 hours on TT.
  8. Weekend Snowfest/Rainfest/Mixed Mess?

    No question, but on that run it’s not supported. Just looks too suppressed.
  9. Weekend Snowfest/Rainfest/Mixed Mess?

    Then the pattern has truly shifted in our favor. We’ve seen this all year, I bet they fold.
  10. February Banter Thread

    I think so.
  11. Weekend Snowfest/Rainfest/Mixed Mess?

    Cold air is gone though. Look where the high is...well off north and east so the wedge is also being eroded out.
  12. Weekend Snowfest/Rainfest/Mixed Mess?

    The CMC and the Euro are likely to fold to the GFS by 12z tomorrow.
  13. Weekend Snowfest/Rainfest/Mixed Mess?

    When the CRAS is in line with the flat look the GFS shows, with the known bias the CRAS has to be extremely overamplified, that in and of itself should tell us which camp probably has the better idea. The gfs has been the king with the ns progressive nina pattern this season for a reason. That’s spot on. Think about it overall...how many progressive N/S waves coming in a west to east pattern ever give this region a hard hit of snow? Just no way for that coastal to get going fast enough or amplify near the coast, so you rely on the front end thump, which is less in a sheared flat pattern the GFS shows.
  14. February Banter Thread

    We just can’t buy a flake this year. Writing is on the wall with this system unfortunately.
  15. Weekend Snowfest/Rainfest/Mixed Mess?

    00z GFS is looking fairly flat at 500 through hr 60. Progressive N/S wave with no real dig to the wave. This is not a favorable track for accumulating snows for us.