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About ers-wxman1

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    Senior ERS
  • Birthday May 3

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Ashburn, VA
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    Bodybuilding, fitness, fishing, softball, RC, travel, friends, and family.

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  1. Final point to make is to not throw out the NAM if it might be outside it’s “wheel house”. At 48, 60, 72 hours we are not to accept its exact QPF or low position but more so it’s giving shorter range clues as to what might be happening with all the pieces sampled with the globals over the medium range, at lower resolution. The NAM outside its wheelhouse picked up on this pronounced warm injection, quick changeover. It’s QPF was way to high over the northern tier but we want features and potential evolution vs exact QPF amounts 2 to 3 days out. No forecaster in the weather business understands how to predict exact QPF, it’s like coastal flooding, smoke and mirrors at times and formulated with a blend of guidance. Focus on features and their evolution vs nailing down amounts and exact track.
  2. Weakening upper level energy as it approached. Just made a post above. No phasing where we needed it
  3. It’s important to try not to hug the snowiest model solutions several days out. If you think about it, 120 hours out is 5 days and most pieces of energy that would come together for a MA storm may not even be over the U.S. yet. It’s a simulation of what could happen and with high uncertainty built into it. So many pieces to come together and if timing is off on one of them, a model can go from a 20” snow to a miss or rain just like that. Tempting not to grab on as a snow lover, but helps to avoid disappointment later on. It’s more important to understand synoptically the “why” vs the “what” and know how weather typically behaves here. A 10-20” snow sampled by the euro, cmc, and gfs at day 4/5 would be in the record books especially for the big cities in December. Records are called records for a reason, they don’t happen too often. Big snows in a model outside the favored climatology should be looked at with caution...biggest one here being the CAD. Yes the signature was there, but the source region of the airmass was modified and not very cold in depth. No closed low was big red flag. 50 degree Atlantic water with easterly flow aloft another flag. The ship began to sink. It’s tough to not latch on. We all feel it, Met or hobbyist, but we can’t overlook the factors that work against us.
  4. Some have mentioned why given the setup all the warm air filtered in. best setups for the MA are closed upper low, passing near or just south of us and also deepening. The CAD, while in place was marginal. Air being drawn into our region was not all that cold and it was shallow. Advection aloft came right off the mild Atlantic regardless of the low track and caused the changeover. These factors started showing up in the guidance Sunday night/Monday. At our latitude we need many pieces to come together just right to give a classic heavy snow setup.
  5. Best forcing and dynamics will be going north of our area. Wrap around CAA is always tricky. Areas closer to the Mason Dixon line would do better than areas further south.
  6. 30F: freezing rain, mostly slush on the roads but seeing light ice accretion on elevated surfaces such as trees, banister rails, power lines, overpasses etc. Rates are too high and temperatures a bit warm to see major ice impacts that would threaten widespread power outages or transportation issues.
  7. For reference, the average December monthly snow for IAD, BWI, DCA is 3.5, 3.0, and 2.3. Not the kind of storm we originally hoped for, but a 12”+ event is not all that common for this time of the year in the MA. We are starting the year off pretty good.
  8. Large flakes in Ashburn. Highest rate so far. Mixing line encroaching from the south. Already switched to sleet in Herndon per WFO. Hoping to hold on in the Ashburn/Leesburg area through 20z to verify warning.
  9. Ashburn, VA. 28F, moderate snow. Nearing 2” on the deck. Roads covered. Few hours of snow left before the mixing line. Expecting 4-6 prior to IP.
  10. Good point there. I’m not the best at reading people through text and social media. It’s often a challenge to communicate with it. Tough to read people this way, maybe I’m more old school. I can be brash and bold but for my line of work I have to be, but for here it’s different...these are not people making decisions to evacuate a coast line or deploy to a disaster where I need to be bold and hit a point home. This is more a hobby.
  11. Very well then I will be leaving the American weather forum.