showmethesnow

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About showmethesnow

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KTHV
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    Hanover, PA

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  1. Nothing like flying out of bwi with temps in the 20's and landing in Phoenix with 70s and expected highs in the low 80s. And here I thought shorts weather was behind me for the year.
  2. To say we have seen improvements in these last few days in regards to the pv (500 mb) migrating westward would be an understatement. My fear of possibly seeing that feature plant itself for a period of time close to Alaska now seem unwarranted. As it stands now we are looking at only a short period of a CONUS wide warmup as PAC air floods NA on the pvs initial move westward. And even that looks to be mitigated in the NE US as we are seeing decent troughing induced by the higher heights/ridging in the NAO domain backing the flow. Though we might struggle with climo temps with the pv located on the other side of the globe in the extended the look being presented now is a far more forgiving look then what was being offered up several days ago.
  3. Overnight Euro was interesting. First shot we see is on Monday (red circle). Right now it stays off the coast so that we see no impact through our region except for possibly around the VA tidewaters up to OC. Probably doesn't matter anyway as the very setup that brings this up the coast is also responsible for trashing our temps as the NS withdraws taking the colder temps with it to the N and E. And anyway I look at it I can't see getting the low closer to the coast to impact us without further losing the temps or getting the temps to cooperate without possibly losing the storm. Barring a somewhat significant shift at 500's, the euro being significantly off on temps or a bombing low just off our coast I think this storm is pretty much dead in the water. Now if we were in the heart of winter or even a month down the road where climo temps would be more cooperative I would have interest in this but as of now I think it is pretty much a non-player. But we are still 5+ days out so... But that isn't the system that has my interest. Look at what we see following on the heals of our Monday system. We have a strong shortwave/trough (purple circle) running down through the gulf states which is attaining a neutral tilt through Mississippi. A neutral tilted trough around the Mississippi region is one of the things we look for when it comes to possible winter storms as quite often it will attain a favorable position and axis tilt (negative) as it sweeps through our region. This trough is catching a low that is forming in the gulf and drawing it northward up the coast as the trough goes negative tilt. Two other features to note are the 2 shortwaves (black circles) embedded in the north stream. The first shortwave (over Michigan) is driving a fresh supply of cold air down into the Midwest as it sweeps through the Lakes. The second shortwave is following with a reinforcing shot of cold air. So now we have a fresh supply of cold air to our west as a low forms and sweeps up the coast. As it is it just quite doesn't get it done. But to expect the Euro to have this energy in the NS nailed down as far as timing and placement at 5+ days is folly. Just a little difference with these features (if they exist) could mean a great deal in timing of the cold as well as the possibility of phasing between the NS energy and/or the southern energy. Now here are the 500's at day 7+. Notice we have negative tilted trough running through our region with an embedded closed low in a prime location over OBX. Not only that but we are seeing a capture of the surface at this time as well. If you also notice the shortwave over the Lakes (second shortwave from above), if we were to see a quicker deeper drop with that feature earlier in the process that could also come into play with potential NS/SS phasing. Also another feature that is of note is the ridging we see to the west in the central US. The initial placement (ridging builds up around Idaho) and eastward migration/evolution of this feature is one of a storm signal in the east. THIS IS THE LOOK WE WANT. Give me this look inside of 3 days and I would be hollering up a storm at the potential. Below we have the surface map as the same time above. We are seeing a 989 mb low captured around OBX and moving northward. This low has seen fairly rapid deepening the previous 24 hrs as we see a 15 mb drop. Now the temps are lagging a little to our west and we are seeing very little precip on the western side of the low. So basically it is a swing and a miss. But these are details that mean nothing at this time range (7+ days). As it is, it is enough to know that the Euro at this time, and has been for awhile, sees a shortwave running through the south as well as the NS dropping in to possibly provide cold air and possibly more. Anything beyond that as far as details is meaningless. Now if we can just get this general look inside 3 days... eta: Just a couple comments about the EPS on the possible Wed system. EPS still sees the southern low development and though somewhat progressive with that feature it has improved in that regard compared to yesterdays 12z run as well as with the trough depth and placement. Saw a better indication as far as possible NS involvement over the 12z run as well though we need to see improvement in that regard. Overall the general look has improved and shows the possibilities. Don't bother with glancing at the individual snow maps because they are basically a no-show. This will be a case of what we see occur with the NS in future runs. We continue to see improvements with that feature (in particular a deeper drop) then the other features would probably fall into place.
  4. This brought back memories of college. Tried to cook a whole chicken in the dorms microwave. Doesn't work too well. Freaking thing exploded. Scared the hell out of some of my dorm mates who happened to be near by. Chicken was splattered all over the place, even had a wing hanging down from the ceiling of the microwave. But me being on a limited college budget ate it anyway. At least the pieces that were still somewhat recognizable.
  5. Was just checking over Tropical and it looks as if it is ready to light up and here you are talking about snow? Get your priorities straight. And you think watching football in the snow is great? Check a game out during a CAT 3/4. Now that is entertainment.
  6. This was another thing I liked seeing amidst our current projected warmup in the extended. What we were seeing regards to the PAC Jet and the tropical jet. Currently we see a strong PAC jet exiting off Asia into the Pacific but it is getting quickly hammered in the central Pacific so as that it is weakened and under goes major gyrations within the flow as it approaches N America. During the projected warmup we see the disruption to the jet in the central Pacific let up a touch so that we see a slightly stronger/straighter/more consolidated jet approaching our shores. But this looks to be brief in nature as the disruptions ramp up once again. This in my mind is a good omen that we will not be plagued with a strong overwhelming jet this winter. Also it looks as if the tropical jet (via the Pineapple express) is ramping up somewhat as well. Not to mention that we continue to see split flow off the SW coast popping up time and again. I also noted a week or two ago about another possible source of a tropical jet (disassociated from the normal PAC one as this one would pull moisture up from the equator through generally Mexico) that might be a player at times. And we are still seeing that feature showing up, the anticyclonic rotation generally situated around the Gulf/Mexico/Central America. All in all I like what we have seen and are projected to see in the coming two weeks. Makes me tend to believe that if this winter ends up being a dud it won't be because the PAC failed us.
  7. @frd https://simonleewx.com/polar-vortex-forecasts/ is now bookmarked. Thanks, always nice to see what is occurring below 50 mb and the information is hard to come by.
  8. Great minds think alike. Of course it doesn't hurt that if I am wrong at least I have a fellow shipmate to go down on the Titanic with me. Pretty much agree with everything you are saying except differ somewhat on what the models suggest in regards to the AO (or at least I believe we see a much more robust signal). Looking at the mid and upper levels is suggestive to me that we see some fairly impressive height builds over the pole and polar regions (2-3 weeks). These same things are also suggestive of major fracturing and displacement southward of the pv at 500's, aka strong -ao.
  9. To say I am less then enthused about the prospects at this time, especially west of the bay would be an understatement. As the snow maps suggest I believe the best chances for anything of substance will be confined to the eastern/southern portions of MD and NE Va as we do see a slug of moisture riding up from the south just in time to enhance moisture into the frontal passage. Up in my neck of the woods I think we are looking at instability snow and/or rain showers at best as the 500's swing through with very little to nothing with the frontal passage. And I am not really impressed with the 500's at this time but will reserve judgment until we get within 48-72 hours as the models should pick up by then on any possible energy rotating through.
  10. Whether right or wrong the ensembles are advertising a mostly CONUS wide warm up as we head into the extended and somewhat beyond. Below we have the EPS (GEFS has some slight differences but generally has the same idea). What will induce this warm up is the PV that has generally been located around the Hudson Bay region will migrate westward towards Alaska/NE Russia. This effectively cuts off cross polar flow which has been sending and will send much colder air relative to norms into our region. With the withdrawal of the pv in central/eastern Canada we are also seeing the amplified troughing in the mid-west/east flattening as well. Part of the reason we were seeing good ridging in the west was due to the backing of the flow that was being induce but the amplified troughing in the east. Take that strong troughing out and we lose that backing and so correspondingly we see the western ridging breakdown as the PAC flow overwhelms it as seen below. Now we do still see an extreme northern based +PNA but it does us little good. What is happening is that the PAC Flow is overwhelming the CONUS effectively putting up a wall against the N Stream which is flowing around the extreme northern ridging. Now below we have the response in temps to this setup. Notice we have basically warmth through the whole of N America at the end of the extended (We do see below norm temps in the SW which are the product of weakness/troughing we see in that region.). As we can see, the N Stream is flowing off the N PAC around the troughing setup by the PV. With coming off the PAC these temps are moderated somewhat so they are showing as warm anomalies through Canada but they would be more then sufficient for our needs if they decided to give us a visit. Unfortunately there is no vehicle to deliver them. The extreme N based ridging comes no where near to providing the oomph to bust through the PAC flow that has setup through the CONUS. And the eastern trough that could have served us as well? That has become muted as well with the pv withdrawal. So the core of the colder air is basically locked up into Canada. Now as far as our region what we could probably expect with this setup is longer periods of warmth with brief intrusions of seasonal to slightly below temps as cold fronts would slide down into the Mid-west and slide eastward as they work around the very weak troughing we see through the region. The cold provided would most likely not be sufficient for our needs (snow) as we are still very early in the season. Now this doesn't take into account an extreme event that can manufacture its own cold (Bombing low, Bowling bowl across the south). So there is always that. Now I know there are some in here who will panic. I wouldn't. This will more then likely be a somewhat brief warmup (2 weeks maybe 3) as there are already signs of this look breaking down at the end of the extended. And we couldn't have asked for better timing as well as this early in the season we struggle mightily anyway (better then handicapping the temps during the heart of winter). This will also be a good test to see if the period we have seen recently is actually the base state (+PNA, -EPO, eastern troughing) that we can expect through the CONUS for at least the first half of winter, which in my mind would be a winner. And some of what I am seeing suggests to me that the models may in fact be beginning the process of reverting to this. There are actually quite a few things I like seeing even while we may be experiencing this relax. The stratpv is actually getting hammered. This pretty much coincides with the CFS projections that it has had for several weeks and what the GEFS has been advertising recently. Also we are seeing quite a disconnect from the 10mb pv down to the 500mb one. Another sign that the pv is under extreme duress. Still want to see a few more days of runs but the evolution I believe we are over/around the pole beyond the extended is one that will actually feature some great blocking (think big red ball) with a correspondingly strong -AO. As far as the NAO domain I am starting to lean fairly strongly on that becoming a player as well (I favor an eastern based one at this time). Let's see what the next week or so of runs give us and whether the current projections are somewhat accurate. If they are, we could be setting up for a very favorable look come mid-December.
  11. Fringed. That's alright. I will gladly give up these nickle/dimers to you snow starved shore men just as long as I get in on the death bands from all the N'easters we are going to get this year.
  12. Playing with fire with the pv migrating over towards Alaska like that. You can already see the cold getting bottled up on the other side of the globe as N America gets flooded with PAC air and warmth. With the trough/east/ridge/west setup we would get the occasional shot of seasonal/slightly below cold from Canada but at this time of year that won't cut it.
  13. Have only put two others on ignore for the winter throughout the years and they were after the 1'st of the year. And yet here we are a week into November and I am already putting you on ignore. Says a lot about your quality posting or should I say, lack of.
  14. Overnight runs were pretty rough for the Tue/Wed possibilities. Wouldn't give up on it at this point but we have definitely seen a degrade in the look. The make or break day for me is roughly Sunday when we see how the models handle the energy in the different streams in western Canada. The following Friday has a little bit of potential but as has been mentioned we will be probably be dealing with stale cold where we need a manufacturing of cold (bombing low) or a fresh supply that is not evident on the models at this time. Looking at the EPS day 10/11 period has my interest somewhat (The previous Friday event will have a big say, think 50/50 low). Truth be told the whole period day 10 onward interests me. But we are talking the extended and the EPS is somewhat muddled on specific details but overall the pattern is favorable and we are seeing multiple pieces of NS energy diving down through this period.
  15. As some have noted the overall look and evolution with our system next Tue/Wed has changed from possible coastal development to more a glorified frontal passage. And here is why we are basically seeing these differences. Now for those who read my post over the weekend I had noted that what we were seeing was interaction between the PV and NS energy in western Canada which was driving a deep drop of the upper latitude trough southward into the US. We were seeing PAC energy riding underneath unmolested and in front of this trough. It was actually a pretty good setup for possible southern/coastal low development. But what we are now seeing is that there is a partial interaction with the NS energy with PAC energy in the NW. What this is doing is twofold. First it is siphoning off energy from the NS which is weakening its interaction with the pv energy. Thus we are not seeing as vigorous solution between the two (shallower drop of the upper latitude trough). Second the interaction between some of the NS energy and the PAC energy is now creating lower latitude troughing into the SW. So now what we have is a flatter and more progressive flow running in front of these systems. Not a good look for possible coastal development. Now some may cringe when we start talking seeing snow from a frontal passage, me included. After all those that have followed weather in this region for a few years know how well that normally works out for us with the cold chasing the moisture. Normally not so well. But as depicted now on the Euro it actually is a pretty decent setup. Note the 'As depicted now' though. I will run you through some things to show you what I mean. Below we have the 700mb heights and vortice map shortly after precip has begun. Now what I want you to note is where we are seeing the energy situated. This is where we are seeing lift. Also take note of the where we are seeing the 700mb trough setting up. Now lets look at what we are seeing at 500 mbs. ***Just an aside but notice that the 700 mb trough is strongly positive at this stage. Shows the progressive nature of the flow at this point that pretty much shuts off our chances for coastal development.*** Quite often with a frontal passage we will see the lift at 500s displace slightly to the west of the lift seen at 700mbs. But this isn't so much the case here. What we are seeing is a pretty decent displacement to the west at 500mbs. ***Again note the strongly positive tilt of the trough. A very progressive look.*** Now you may be asking yourselves why the displacement of the 700 and 500mb vorticity/lift matters. The diagram below shows why. On the first image we have the general profile of what we generally see at mid levels when it comes lift during a cold front (less displacement between the different levels). As you can see the precip associated with lift shuts off quickly just as the cold air at lower levels starts to enter the picture. We all have seen this, where it rains and rains while we wait for the cold air to bleed in only to watch a couple of water logged flakes plop to the ground just before everything shuts down. Now the second pic shows what we are seeing on the EPS now. This further displacement westward at 500s is allowing the moisture transport to drive deeper into the cold air giving us a much longer period of snow. Now the above diagram (second pic) can be seen when it comes to the cold air. This is the 850's shortly after precip has started to fall. Notice that the 850s have already cleared the metros and we still have a fairly long duration of precip to follow. Quite often times we get the 850's and yet the surface temps are slow to respond. This doesn't look to be the case here. We are seeing a sharp frontal passage on the surface as well as we see 10-14 degree drops in 3 hours putting us quickly into the low/mid 30's' Some have probably noted on the Euro snow map above that the heavier axis of snow is located to the south. Why we are seeing this is that we have a heavier slug of moisture feeding northward from the deep south/gulf just in time to catch up and enhance the snowfall in southern MD/N Va. This moisture is actually driven northward by the lower latitude trough initiated by the PAC/NS energy from the very first map above. Now the above is a winning scenario in my mind for seeing our first accumulating snow region wide. But will this general look last until game time? Maybe, maybe not. If I were to place money I would probably put it on us seeing further changes. There is a lot of energy streaming through the PAC and NS flows not to mention the energy flowing around the pv. And this doesn't even bring into account all the energy at different levels. It is a very active pattern and to think the models are handling these parcels of energy correctly is probably asking too much.