showmethesnow

Just glanced at 92L. The convection that we had seen over the core of the storm earlier in the night has now migrated to the north side leaving the core for the most part exposed.The dry air to the west of the storm looks as if that is getting beat back somewhat as the low to the north of the storm is driving a wedge of moister air southward into it. This is a double edged sword because of the strong sheer associated with this low which is quite obvious on the water vapor loop as it tears the tops of the convection off. At this point 92L, with what is now it's closest approach to the low to north and the sheer associated with it, is probably facing the most hostile it will encounter on its trek westward. If it can stay reasonably intact over the next 12 hours or so I think we will be game on irregardless of the dry air in front of it. A good sign, one I will keep an eye out for today, is if we see decent convention continue to pop up and begin a move southward towards the center of circulation once again.

That actually looks pretty healthy. Looks as if there is little to no displacement with upper and lower level circulation and we are already seeing an outflow. Just checked the latest images as well and we are now seeing new convection pop in the center of the circulation itself which is a good sign for further intensification.

Hate to be a party pooper but short of seeing true tropical conditions or something noteworthy I would prefer to take a pass on this. After such a dry start to the year and complaining about the lack of rain I find now that I would prefer if it didn't rain so much. My yard has been so damp and wet for quite awhile now that the mosquitoes are now rivaling Chincoteague Island. Went to mow the lawn yesterday and had them swarming all over me.

Not going to go back and check but I do believe that both the GFS and Euro had shown a storm there in previous runs (few days back) as well. Haven't looked deeply into tropical for a while now but I did find this time period of interest at one point. Being 5 days out won't take long to know if this has legs or if it is just another ghost storm the models have been throwing out on a regular basis.

That's actually the storm the CMC eventually pushes into the Florida panhandle. Can't remember how far the Ukie runs out, 144hrs?, if it runs longer where does it send that storm?

Had started to write up that such a quick turnaround with Ninas was unlikely but after looking over the Enso since 1950 I think we may be in uncharted territory. There have been quick turnarounds with Ninas when we see the intervening period stay in the cold neutral range. On the other hand the quickest turnaround when a Nino develops between Ninas is 16 months with most at 2+ years if not much longer. What we have seen during this current interval is Enso values that went into the warm neutral just missing Nino status and there are no cases to this to compare since 1950. Now if you twisted my arm on what we see this winter factored on the above I would put my money on us not seeing Nina and we stay in a neutral. But this is more so because though we didn't technically see a Nino we did see a Nino type pattern set up. Of course we are talking such a small data set you have to question if there is much value in the above anyway.

The overnight runs of the GFS and Euro are blah to say the least with very little activity in the tropics. I did find it interesting that the Euro, at the end of its run, spun up a system rapidly from a disturbance just as it exited the coast of Africa. Not sure how common that is. Maybe someone that follows tropical much more closely then myself can chime in. CMC on the other-hand seems to want to make up for it with the tropics exploding in the mid and long range. Even has 4 systems on the board at one point with a 968 mb (strong Cat 2) about ready to slam into the pan handle of Florida at the end of the run.

Haven't been following too hard myself. One thing I have noticed though is that the look in the Atlantic that looked promising for EC impact of any possible storm has deteriorated somewhat the last couple of days in the mid and long range.

We can do fine in a Neutral, especially if we can get some blocking up top. It's a La Nina, in particular the moderate to strong ones, that screw our chances up.

For those hoping for an El Nino I think we can probably stick a fork in it. The Probabilistic ENSO Outlook now strongly favors an Enso neutral and has La nina almost twice as likely to occur over an El nino during the meat of the winter; Dec, Jan, Feb. Neutral 55%, Nina 29%, Nino 16% http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Between still be jaded from all the teases we had during the winter and now during the tropical, both in the longer range, I am in show me mode. As in, lets see these patterns and storms actually progress into the shorter range and then bear fruit. Maybe it is just me, and maybe the verification scores prove otherwise, but it seems the last year or so the models have been horrible in overall general pattern recognition in the longer ranges.

Check out the hour on the Euro... 2...4...0 I know, I know. I am a Debbie Downer.

Father has a place out there that has been overrun twice now in the last 20-30 years by wild fires. Luckily he has emerged relatively unscathed both times. Yeah Charlottesville. Sadly I think we are just seeing the opening salvo of what we can expect to see further escalate in the future. Just too much hatred on all sides, where dialogue and compromise no longer exists. Signs have all pointed to this for quite a few years now. Actually warned my wife of this 5-6 years ago and she shrugged it off as so much nonsense.

If you are up on the trails in the foothills keep an eye out for rattlers. Quite common there. Met a few myself while living in San Diego county 20 years ago.

Pretty lame up here. Little bit of lightning and rain, not much else.