showmethesnow

Had planned on bringing something (food, drink and/or money) whether it was a small get together or not. Wouldn't feel right otherwise. Just let me know what you prefer. I will say that my family and friends seem to like my burgers and are always hitting me up to make them. Now whether they are good or not is another story.

Have several things going on this month but if I get a little notice I have some flexibility with them. That being said, the 22'nd would probably work for me as well. Any complaints if we bring our better halves?

Have a 5 day camping trip planned for this weekend into next week so you can count on storminess and rain. Out of 3 planned trips this year we have spent 2 trips dodging rain drops almost every day and 1 trip we canceled outright because of rain.

@mappy Except for a narrow line of showers to the west, that seem to be falling apart, it seems the rain is out of here. Looks as if you are Mission Go on your party today. By the way, Happy B-Day!!!

Now this was a remnants win. http://www.weather.gov/ctp/Agnes

Not familiar with the CMC HRDPS. Does it have any skill with tropical? You noted that the Euro cut back a touch on it's rainfall from it's previous run which is somewhat interesting in my mind because I thought the track and setup was actually a little better then previously. If we get over an inch I will consider it a win just for my garden and lawn's sake. Otherwise if tropical Remnants don't produce, at the bare minimum 3-4 inches, then it is a fail in my book.

The 00Z GFS has followed the 18z with the shifting north of Cindy's remnants into central PA. Heaviest rain we see is confined MD/PA line and northward with 1 inch totals straddling the Mason Dixon. The Balt/DC corridor now see .5 inch totals or less with most of it falling through this evening when you get south and east of 95. The 12 K Nam shows much more promise with a strip of 2 to 3 inches through central MD though it should be taken with caution because run to run consistency has not been there. The 3K NAM falls in line with the GFS with .5" totals around DC and roughly an inch around the MD/PA line. Also shows much of the rain falling through this evening for the southern portions of the region. Throwing out the 12K NAM, which I don't trust or believe at this point, the Euro actually looks to be the most promising for our region. The latest Euro has shifted the track north somewhat as to where we now see a fairly energetic impulse run through southern/central MD. The overall track actually closely mirrors my middle of the road thoughts between the GFS and the Euro from several days ago that I felt had the most promise for our region. With this setup and track I would think the max strip would fall within MD and would not be surprised if we saw 1 to 2 inch totals with possible lollys of more embedded within it. But with very limited access to the Euro maps and at 24 hour increments at that there is quite a bit of conjecture and speculation on my part. Edit: RGEM has 1"-1.5+ inches for the DC/Balt corridor with the max strip setting up just north of the cities.

Definitely interested on my part. Won't throw out preferred dates though because I have a very fluid calendar during the summer. If I can make the date you all decide on then I will, otherwise I guess I miss out on a good time and snagging up on some of @C.A.P.E.'s fine brews.

Glad to see I am not the only one who would prefer Mother Nature watering the garden and the lawn. Would rather save the money. I will leave unsaid the fact that I am a lazy SOB to boot.

And you consider yourself a hard core tropical fan. You don't hold a candle to us snow freaks that project possible snowstorms beyond the 15 day GFS range.

I wish you luck this weekend. Know how that goes. Have had 3 camping trips planned this year so far that have taken a hard hit because of rain. One we outright canceled and the other two were raining 50-75% of the time. Kind of a bummer. Wish I could justify spending the money on the Euro but during the summer I find I am often too busy with other things to really get my moneys worth.

@WxWatcher007 Might have spoken too soon yesterday about the prospects of seeing something come off the African coast. The last couple of runs of the GFS now show a somewhat vigorous impulse coming off the coast, roughly 3 days from now, which is allowed to turn northward as it finds a weakness with a slackening of the Southwest flow. Manages to hold it together across the Atlantic before finally killing it off just east of the leeward islands. Still somewhat early but you never know and at least it would give us something to follow. Would be pretty impressive if something were to come of it though, considering how far south it exits off of the African continent.

00Z GFS has backed off somewhat on the rainfall. GFS now shows 3/4" to 1.5 inches for the central MD region with the max strip moved southward from earlier runs through DC running up towards southern Jersey. This is vs the 18z which had 1.25" to 2.5" with the max strip running through the northern counties and the Pa/Md line, and the 12Z with a similar max strip though the northern counties and totals of 1.25 to 1.75". GEFS has also followed with a southward progression of the max strip through DC towards southern Jersey vs its earlier runs of running that through southern PA and the Mason Dixon line. Rainfall totals are somewhat comparable to prior runs with .75" to 1.25" falling through the DC/Balt corridor.

The 18Z GFS has come in even wetter for the remnants of Cindy. Now shows a narrow strip of 2+ inches through central MD. Would love to see this but I think we are more likely to see closer to the 1/2 inch totals being advertised previously then the totals GFS has thrown out the last few runs. From past experience these type of setups almost always under-perform and quite often substantially. For my gardens sake I hope I am wrong. For Mappy's sake I hope I am right. Does anybody have the qpf from the Euro? Curious if it is in line withe the bigger numbers the GFS is now throwing out.

Was just looking down the road to see if there was a next. Doesn't look promising for anything off the coast of Africa through day 15 (and possibly beyond) at this point but we are still a little early in the season for that anyway. With a High settling in over the central and eastern Atlantic it is creating a flow that is forcing any impulses that could possibly seed a storm to far south. If we could get a somewhat vigorous impulse to bust through that road block the conditions are somewhat favorable for development in the central and eastern Atlantic as it reaches warmer water. So that is always a possibility. At this point though I think our best chances probably lie in a home brew. Which is normally the case this time of year anyway. Conditions seem somewhat favorable for something possibly developing in the Gulf or northern Caribbean islands. Now whether something does is another story. Southern Caribbean doesn't look promising though as there is a fairly fast flow there through the period. Considering I am more a casual observer when it comes to tropical then anything else I would be interested on hearing your more knowledgeable take.