showmethesnow

They just don't make sun flowers like they used too. Back in my day sun flower plants were 5+ feet tall with heads a foot across.

Don't think this weekend will knock any out of the running. But looking over the GEFS at the end of the extended and how it is evolving is another story. I think it may be raising the red flag at the possibility of a major heat wave the beginning of August where the low ballers on temps (me included ) will be sent packing. Give it a few days and we'll see if my thoughts on how this evolves are legit.

Except for watching the death defying exploits of our @WxWatcher007 as he braved that monster called Barry down south I pretty much took a break from the models these last 12 days. It was nice to say the least. But I am back to wasting my time even though it is the dregs of Summer. Looking over things I would say the GEFS from the beginning of the month did a pretty good job overall in its extended. Well a good job except for our localized desert that @EastCoast NPZ calls home. I do hear the cacti are thriving down there. But I also hear that local authorities are considering a tumble weed alert so I do hope NPZ takes precautions and boards up his home. Looks as if we will see heat building into our region into the weekend but nothing too over the board as we are probably only generally looking at +4-6 over norm through the general metropolitan areas. The true heat relative to average looks to be centered to our north and northeast (upwards of +8-12 above average into NE). It also looks as if the leeward side of the mountains will experience greater anomalies from down sloping then what we will see through the coastal plains/metros. What I did find interesting was that it looks as if Barry had a hand in our building heat into the weekend. Below we see the 500 mb map from a couple of days ago, the 00z from Monday. What we have is ridging bumping up through the central US and troughing to our NE. This is setting up the flow from the NW through our region. We also see Barry undercutting the central US ridging shortly after it has made landfall. Now look what we see at 18z Tuesday. Almost 2 days later and Barry has been stuck in no man's land with very little movement as it has been cut off from the flow. What this slow movement has done has allowed Barry to flatten the flow/ridging above it. What it also has done is force a temporary building of a SE ridge. So instead of a general NW flow through the east we are now seeing a SW flow and the heat and humidity that will come with it. Looking over the extended GEFS it looks as if after the coming 5 days or so of heat that we will see a reprieve with a cool down beginning mid week next week. And the reasons for this can be seen at 500 mbs below for day 7-11. As you can see we have once again seen the ridging migrate westward into the west with troughing building into the east and with that trough the cooler temps it will bring. Now for those who look at the above and think we are seeing nothing more then a wash, rinse, repeat from my initial post from the beginning of the month I might disagree. There are some notable differences we are seeing with the long wave pattern as the GEFS moves into the end of the extended. Now what we are seeing below on the 12-16 day 500mb mean is that the ridging in the west and the troughing in the east have steadily retrograded westward from the map above. What this is now allowing is a building of ridging off the SE coast. Now the above was a 5 day mean so it mutes the look somewhat from what we are actually seeing at the very end of the extended which can be seen below. As you can see we have a much more pronounced SE ridge and a corresponding and fairly significant bump up of heights up the east coast. Now in conjunction with the above 500 mb map look at what we are seeing at 850 mb with both wind and moisture. Notice that we are seeing a southern/southwestern flow through our region. Not only that but we are seeing moisture streaming through the region as it gets picked up off the ocean as the flow revolves under and around the SE ridging. So what does the above mean for us? If the GEFS is somewhat correct I do believe it may be advertising a major legit heat wave at the end of the extended or shortly thereafter. Not only that but we would probably also be looking at high humidity where the heat indexes would be scorching. Again, this is contingent on the GEFS being correct with its idea of retrograding the long wave pattern westward. One other thing I would like to point out from the map above are the regions circled on the coast line in Texas/Mexico and down the SE coast/Florida. I feel the pattern being advertised is actually a very good one for seeing US impact from any possible developing Hurricanes. The circled regions are where I would favor any landfall though I wouldn't rule out other portions of the gulf. As far as our region the pattern isn't great as it argues an Hurricane would landfall OBX or southward, anything north of that it argues for a recurve before any impact. But I will say it is a decent look for possible remnants for anything that may impact the SE.

Was in Maine (except for the first day in the 90's temps were pretty much mid 70's into the low 80's, we had some nights where the temps dropped into the mid 50's) so I am pretty much going by what the anomalies maps were showing. Wonder if the lack of moisture through your localized area may be playing a part in your temps.

Go to tropical tidbits and glance through the temp anomalies seen for the last few days. Seeing a lot of neg temp anomalies. Don't know what your avg temps are but we are entering the hottest time of the year so though it may seem hot it may still be under temp avgs. As far as precip I did post what I was thinking we would see. 'As far as precip through mid-month. The GEFS has been consistently showing 2-3+ inches through the east in the upcoming 2+ week period. This is not what I would call a drought as some believe we are headed to but neither is it a deluge. It is just pretty typical of what we would expect at this time of year. Now one thing I will point out is the uniform look it has with the precip totals which is misleading. What we will more then likely see are small regions of jackpots (4-5+ inches) and small regions of minimal rainfall (under an inch) and this is due to the nature of how we will see the majority of the precip. Most of the rain we will see will come from popup thunderstorms through this period. And as most are aware these are somewhat localized events and you can see huge discrepancies in just small distances. Now where these will occur throughout the period is anyone's guess as for the most part they will be highly dependent on day to day smaller scale features that will initiate them.'

I was just looking over the anomalies and actually the GEFS did a pretty good job with the 500's and the temp anomalies for the 5 day period at the end of its extended. It didn't pick up the hurricane and the -temp departures that came with it in the deep south but that is to be expected. But the overall pattern it pretty much nailed with the troughing in the east and on the west coast with ridging in the southwest. Can't grab a 5 day on temp profiles for that period of time but just kind of looking through each day I get the impression it may have been a little over done with the heat in the west but it looks to have done a good job with the neg temp anomalies through the central and towards the eastern US. I would probably give it a solid B for it's extended from what I can see.

Never really get excited one way or the other with ENSO forecasts until late in the summer heading into fall. Don't know how often the forecasts in the spring and the early summer have been complete busts.

You seem surprised. You must be new here.

The problem with not tilling is that the soil gets compacted over time which hinders good root development on your plants. It also will hinder rainfall penetration into the soil where more of it will run off then in a looser soil. Also the more compacted soil will tend not to retain as much moisture. During the hotter portions of the summer you really want that extra moisture. One option if you don't want to till is to dig a hole and turnover the soil where your plants will actually be. This is what i normally do because unfortunately tilling is not an option at this time due to space constraints. Normally will mix fertilizer and prime top soil in at the same time as well. Typically you want the hole almost as wide as the plant will be above the surface as quite often the root system will match its expanse.

Nah, I am going to have to get my machete out.

Couple things you can do here to help keep weeds down. First off, you really need to keep on top of the weeds throughout the summer. Never let them grow long enough where they flower otherwise they are just going to drop seeds for the coming year. You also want to throw the weeds in the trash and not just throw the pulled weeds back onto the ground in the garden. Just doing this and nothing else and you should see a noticeable reduction year over year. Second, at the end of the summer clear the garden but don't roto-tiller yet. Put down black tarp or plastic for several weeks as to where hopefully the sun will create enough heat on the surface of the soil to kill any seeds that have been deposited over the summer. If you roto-tiller before hand all you do is push these seeds deeper into the soil where not enough heat can be generated. Now if you are dealing with an invasive weed that spreads (Such as I have been dealing with a Morning Glory ivy ever since we bought the house) you need to actually spray that with a weed killer instead of pulling it. Spraying it will help kill the root system from which more plants will spring up even after you pull the original weed. I have used this method the last 3 years and it has just about been eradicated after years of it taking over a decent portion of the garden. One benefit to rotoing in the leafs in the fall is that they will compost quicker in the soil then on the surface. They will also tend to help keep the soil from packing as much over the winter as the leaves will create air pockets as they decompose.

Worst thing about a vacation is the trip home. On the last leg with a little over an hour to go. Maine is gorgeous though and the long drive was well worth it. Mohegan Sun poconos casino made out like bandits from our 2 day stop over on the way home. Now I have my fingers crossed that my garden hasn't had any issues from not being tended for 11 days.

Beaver dam,that brings back memories. Used to go swimming there as a teenager.

Glad to hear you survived all the death, doom and destruction. Guess that will teach you not to go chasing these monster hurricanes.

@WxWatcher007 so you still with us? Or did you get washed away?