showmethesnow

Next weekend actually has my interest somewhat. At least as far as how interested you can be with something 9/10 days out on the models. The models are starting to pick up on a piece of potent NS energy diving down into the US in a somewhat favorable local for our region. Pretty much will be dependent on what we see downstream in the south and the east coast leading into that NS drop. Lot of moving parts but the general idea is there for a pretty strong system somewhere in the east. Of course the models could be out to lunch once again.

Winter of 19-20 Running snow totals. ******************************************** Dec 4 (Early morning hours): 1/2" Dec 11 (Early morning post frontal snows) .6 " Dec 16 (early morning hours, overrunning) 1.0" Jan 7 (Quick hitter roughly 6 hrs in the afternoon) 4.5" Jan 8 (early morning squalls.) (Squall 1) 1.25" (Squall 2) .6" Jan 18 (slop storm) .4" snow/sleet .2 ice ******************************************** Total for season: 8.85"

Sadly no they don't.

Hanover is the place to be. If you come up I can guarantee a minimum of 6 inches. Of course it might be a localized event, very localized, say in my back yard? Around the snow making machine I would buy to guarantee those 6 inches?

You are on a long list of those who got to enjoy one of his tirades. Quit following a few years back myself. Got tired of his constant trashing of other Mets, interjecting politics into his discussions and trashing any that disagreed with him. Shame too because he is very knowledgeable if you can ignore his constant model hugging of the Euro.

Got you. Didn't look in depth was just a quick and dirty glance after seeing your post. Nice post on the mid-level winds by the way.

Are we looking at the same thing? 06Z looks comparable if not just a smidge wetter then the 00Z on precip total. Now admittedly both runs are dryer then the other models but still I didn't see a degradation.

I like what we are generally seeing in the longer ranges on the EPS and GEFS as it does have potential. But we will probably be dependent on well timed systems and/or episodes of some sort of blocking in the N Atlantic to realize this potential. Otherwise we are running the risk of progressive and suppressed systems. On the other hand we are seeing an active southern stream that could very well come into play as well. I would definitely roll the dice on what we are seeing now as there is very good upside if things break right for us. And it sure beats what we were looking at just a few weeks ago.

I know some on here are rooting for a shallower drop of the trough in the west. At this time with what is being presented on the models I am actually rooting for a deeper drop. Let me explain. Below we have the GEFS and the EPS at 96 hrs. What we have is the trough moving through a very broad area of lower pressures in the west. What I want you to note is the location it is deciding to initiate the development of our primary from within this large expanse of lower pressures. What we are seeing on both the EPS and the GEFS is that they are having this development on the base of the trough just on the front side. And for the most part this is what we have been seeing for the last 2 days or so on these models. Now some may argue that this deeper drop is pumping up the ridging in front and thus the warming the temps hurting our chances for frozen. I don't really think that is a concern at this time. If you notice we have a very strong CAD signature and that will be very hard to erode out especially with the farther western track we are seeing with our low. I think at this point our far bigger concern is actually getting some decent moisture overrunning our CAD vs. any potential warming. This is where the trough drop and the primary development come into play. What it basically comes down to is the track of our low. Below is what we would be looking at with a shallower drop of the trough assuming that the primary initiates on its base. What we have is a good moisture source running through the southern tier of which our low will be tapping into. With the low being farther north it has a harder time tapping into this source. What we also see is the best moisture is following to the south and east of the track of this low. There is a very real danger with this of seeing the best moisture to our west and north in this scenario. But look at we see with a deeper drop. The low is better able to tap into the southern moisture giving us a better moisture feed then the above. Also note that the track is more favorable to getting that good moisture flow running through our area.

Looking over the EPS and the changes seen from the 12Z were minimal. Western trough is slightly quicker but it is somewhat of a wash as confluence and associated High pressure to our north is a touch quicker departing as well. High pressure to our north is a touch weaker and our system is also a touch weaker as well with a similar track as the 12z. Accounting for the slight differences on timing with precip (00z is a touch quicker) the CAD is almost spot on to the 12Z. All in all what we saw was pretty much noise from run to run. As far as the snowfall means we did see an improvement. Saw a roughly 1/2" increase over the 12z from just south of the cities and north.

Let's see where we are in a day or two. But as of right now with what is being depicted I wouldn't expect to see any transfer to off our general coast as the primary is still gaining too much latitude. See stronger heights in Canada on future runs with less latitude gain and/or a deeper dropping trough then we can probably start considering the idea.

Think you are right. Probably bombing flakes at this point. If you note the good lift through and just above the warm nose I would think those warmer temps would be getting mixed out upwards somewhat.

We continue to see the run over run changes that we want. Snapshot at 105 hr on the changes from 12Z compared to the 06Z. Note we continue to see an increase of the pressures over top of our system. We are also seeing the confluence lag even farther behind in the NE. And we are also seeing a slightly deeper dig of the trough in the west.

It's not so much the slower arrival time of the system that we need to worry about. It is the arrival time of the system compared to the high to the north. With the confluence lagging behind longer and deeper we are seeing the High pressure being locked in longer and being slowed down quite a bit on it's move eastward. So though we are seeing this system arriving later it is in fact coming in quicker in relation to the cold.

We continue to see run over run improvements within the Euro for next weekend. Still 5 days out so things can very well degrade but as of now we are still probably good for a general 2-4, 3-6 through the cities and north from WAA snows. Couple of things I will point out as far as what the run over run improvements are and they generally involve with what we are seeing with the 50/50 and it's associated confluence in the NE and the higher heights/high pressure we are seeing in southern Canada. The 50/50 has been trending stronger and it's general timing with the incoming system and associated western trough has improved. One other thing of note is that we are seeing a string of NS energy trailing behind this 50/50 that has been digging deeper and deeper south in the NE in front of our incoming system. In a nut shell these changes are helping to keep confluence to our NE locked in longer as well as dragging it farther south. These are good things as it is helping to lock in the High pressure to our north longer which also is playing a part in keeping the CAD in place longer as well. What we have also been seeing is that we are continuing to see a strengthening of the higher heights over top in Canada run over run. So what all this adds up to is deeper and longer lasting CAD through the region as the WAA precip moves in. Another thing to point out is that we have been seeing an adjustment of our western low's track SE as well as a general weakening which is what we want to see. This combo helps to take the threat of having the best WAA moisture running to our west and north somewhat off the table as well keeps the SW flow weaker where it will have a much harder time of scouring out the CAD. Now there is one thing I want to point out as a possibility although I don't particularly think it will happen at this time. What we have been seeing with the higher heights over top in Canada has been a move run over run towards them hooking up and over the western trough dropping in. So what we have generally seen over the last several days it that we are seeing a deeper dig with the trough as well as a quicker turning of it's axis (not so much on the latest run compared to the 12z). Now at this time we are seeing the through close off to our N/NE well after it could have any impact for us. BUT... we continue to see those stronger heights in Canada continue building up and over that dropping western trough there would be a very real chance of seeing the 500's closing off much sooner to our west. Not only that, but there would be the possibility of the 500's actually getting cut off from the NS flow in response to the higher heights through southern Canada. Now if we were to see one or both of these things occur it would change the dynamics for after any WAA aloft snows fell. Now what this would possibly mean for our region it is hard to even speculate until we actually saw it but I could see it potentially put coastal development into play for our region. But again I am not necessarily expecting this I just thought it might be worth keeping an eye for.