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showmethesnow

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About showmethesnow

  • Birthday 02/22/1964

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KTHV
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Hanover, PA

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  1. January Banter String

    Why do I feel I need a translator anymore when I come into the banter thread?
  2. Mid Atlantic Met Class Thread

    @psuhoffman Nice writeup. Might crack open the Kocin books and get some ideas to add to this over the coming days.
  3. January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2

    Quite a bit of difference in regards to how the day 9/10 system is handled on the old GFS vs the new one they will be bringing out shortly.
  4. January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2

    Several of us have mentioned in the last week or so that the models were hinting at a flip in the NPAC. Well the overnight runs in the extended I believe do show the lead into that possible flip. Below we have the verification for Dec 4th which is shortly before we saw a flip to the long duration strong +PNA/-EPO combo. Now the features I want you to notice are the higher heights towards the pole (B) with ridging (C) extending towards it up off the west coast and into Alaska. We also have a portion of the PV (D) located in north central Canada with troughing (E) extending from it down into the southwest. The key feature here is the strong PV in the NPAC (A) which I believe initiates the flip. What we have seen in the days before this snapshot below is that the pv begins elongating and shifting eastward from the western Pacific where it was originally situated to where we have it now into the Aleutians. This in turn is forcing the ridging/higher heights (C) northward as it gets squeezed by the trough into the southwest. Now compare the above to what we see below on the 15 day EPS. Remarkable similarities between both maps. We again see the higher heights over the pole (B) with a pv (D) located to the south in NCentral Canada. We also see the ridging (C) off the west coast building northward into Alaska with a trough (E) into the southwest. The initiating feature once again is the PV (A) as we have seen it elongate and shift eastward into the Aleutians. Not to be outdone the GEFS at day 15 is almost spot on with the features on both maps above and it too shifts the NPAC pv eastward into the Aleutians.. About the only difference we see is it is a little weaker and more progressive with the SW trough so we are not seeing the ridging/higher heights building to the extent that we saw on the previous two examples. Now one other thing I want to bring up is the eastern half of the globe on the maps below. When taking into account smoothing we see occur on the extended ensembles, which lose the finer details especially at the mid latitudes, and the fact that there are some slight timing issues with some of the features, the similarities match up extremely well. I can never recall having one model run match up so well in the N-Hemisphere to a previous verified time. And yet here we have two and both timed at 15 days to boot. And here we have what verified two days later, Dec 6. The NPAC has flipped and we begin the long duration +PNA/-EPO. We also see the pv drop southward into southern Canada and the higher heights in the east forced into the NAO domain where we then saw a predominately -NAO for roughly a week. For those that can recall I was very high going into this period even considering climo for early December. We in fact did see a roughly 9/10 day stretch where some made out fairly well for so early in the season. The one thing that did limit our potential was that we saw the pv/associated mean trough located a little too far to the east for our region. Give me this and the following 10 days we saw, with better climo and the pv/trough located a little farther to the west and I think we do much better then what we saw in early December. Who knows. Maybe even WOOF worthy.
  5. January Banter String

    Happy B-Day!!!
  6. January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2

    I've tracked worse, last winter comes to mind. So I will keep an eye on things and keep my fingers crossed. Actually looking forward to a slow week or two so I can catch up on things that I have let slide. Know the wife will be happy about that. This killing at least a couple of hours a day tracking really ate into some of my projects and 'honey do list' items.
  7. January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2

    Not because I am particularly high on the period at this point but more so just to have something to track, roughly around day 11 might have some potential. Both the GEFS and the EPS are suggesting the possibility of energy running up from the south as a cold front pulls through the region. The signal there seems to be getting marginally stronger as well. But we have been down this road several times already this winter (waiting/hoping for cold to filter in as trailing energy pulls up through the region). But again, it may be something to at least track to get us through a slow period of time. I am still liking the idea of a flip in the NPAC in a couple of weeks or so (The extended actually looks to be in the transition period). Also still seeing indications of ridging developing into Greenland in the longer range but this winter I will believe that when I actually see it occurring.
  8. The Panic Room--Winter 2017-2018

    Hold strong. February and March are going to be rockin.
  9. January Banter String

    Now why would you think I was referring to you?
  10. January Banter String

    It's a shame that you have to beg and plead just to get some people to behave. Makes it even worse when it is long time posters that should very well know better.
  11. January Banter String

    The Reaper already took him. I am not sure how much more of a timeout you can ask for.
  12. Jan 16/17 Event Obs/Disc

    What we are searching for is the trough being in a position to be able to influence the surface low earlier in the evolution where it can draw the low back towards the coast while in the process of going for the capture. Though it still has a ways to go the NAM suite made a good move in that direction. The GFS? Not so much.
  13. Jan 16/17 Event Obs/Disc

    3K NAM is also seeing improvements at 500 mb with quicker and closer to the shore development of the surface low.
  14. Jan 16/17 Event Obs/Disc

    For those that haven't seen the 12k NAM yet. We have seen some improvements at 500 mb again and we are also seeing much stronger surface low development closer to the coast. eta: We are also seeing a capture of the surface low much closer towards the coast.
  15. Mid-Atlantic snow totals for winter 2017/18

    And jonjon with the coup de grace.
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