showmethesnow

Though you can't rule anything out through the next 10 days or so I think the best to be hoped for is probably some stray snow flakes especially N and W of the cities. Where I will keep an eye on is day 10-12 as both the GEFS and the EPS temporarily break down -NAO before returning back to that state. Many of our east coast snowstorms/rainstorms feature this breakdown from a -NAO to a neutral or positive state. Cold allowing that is probably our best shot of seeing accumulating snow. One thing I like seeing is through the next couple of weeks on the models is the tendency for a southern/subtropical jet popping up from the gulf into the southeast Atlantic in conjunction with low pressures forming off the southeast coast. Would love to see this feature continue throughout the winter.

First time I have had a chance to look over the models in the last few days. Just some thoughts on what the models are showing as far as any possible pattern setting up. As we head into November, a typical Enso driven pattern would normally be emerging for what we can expect for at least the first half of winter. And yet there is no clear signal nor does there look to be one in the next 2 weeks and possibly beyond if the models are correct. If anything the look as become even more chaotic. In a typical Nina winter we would expect to see a strong steady state PAC jet impacting the Northwest US/Southwest Canada and yet that is not what the models see for the foreseeable future. We are seeing huge disturbances of the PAC jet in the central Pacific (and that looks to continue beyond day 15/16 as well) which are creating chaos downstream. What we are seeing on the models downstream of these disturbances are huge undulations of the PAC jet with it quite often resulting in it migrating farther north into Alaska and North western Canada, in essence forming a polar jet, that then is diving deep into the central US. We are also seeing what looks to be a somewhat active southern jet emerging on the models. An active southern jet comprised of both disturbance induced splits of the PAC jet as as well as that of the subtropical jet. The pattern is chaotic but if forced I would probably say it is closer to that of a Nino, then a Nina or Neutral but even that is probably a stretch. Looking at the temp and precip anomalies the next two weeks do not offer much clarity as well except for the fact they are NOT what you would expect to see if a La Nina pattern were setting up for the winter. They are more suggestive of a cross between a weak Nino and Enso Neutral more then anything else. Maybe by mid to late November a ENSO driven pattern may emerge but it doesn't look if one will emerge in the foreseeable future. All in all, I really like where we sit so far leading into what was supposed to be a Nina driven winter.

@losetoa6 I fully expect to get home next Monday with snow on the ground. Don't fail me.

Don't knock the Happy Hour runs around here. The people live and die for them. Then they crash down to earth the next morning as the 00Z run plays grinch.

I see the MSAI would be off the charts. The Mountain Snow Advancement Index.

Doesn't get better then this. Sitting in our room overlooking the ocean in N Myrtle Beach. Just finished a shot of peach moonshine and am now listening to Black Sabath's instrumental Laguna Sunrise that I have been looking for for years.

Tnx, great starting point to hunt for it.

Black Sabbath had an instrumental that was my all time favorite. It wasn't your typical Black Sabbath sound. Unfortunately it was on a cassette that got destroyed years ago and I have no idea what it was called and haven't been able to find it since. But I keep searching.

Thought I would have a little fun with what the Panasonic model was showing in the extended. This is at day 15 and the Panasonic control model to boot so don't take this as a forecast whatsoever. First off I wanted to show a quick example of what I was referring to when I mentioned smoothing yesterday in the longer ranges of the ensemble models. Below is a pic from the Panasonic Ensembles of the Jet at day 15 coming off the Pac into the CONUS. Notice the smooth uninterrupted flow across the Pacific through the US denoted by the arrow? We are seeing very little in the way of troughs nor ridges through the US and the US would be flooded with warm Pacific air. But also notice how wide it is showing the Jet denoted between the two black lines. This is indicative of a wide spread within the individual members. Also wanted to point out that we also have a fairly strong signal for a subtropical jet undercutting the Pac Jet. Now below we have an individual member (Control) of the Panasonic Ensembles. Now notice the stark contrast of the flow across the Pac and through the CONUS from the mean of the ensembles from above? No comparison. Now look specifically at what we have in the way of Jets on the Control model at day 15. We have the Pac Jet being split into two in the central Pacific forming a polar jet (top red line) and the Pac jet continuing to the south of that (middle red line). We also see a sub tropical undercutting the PAC. Now notice that the PAC and the subtropical jets are touching in the southwest. And above that we see the polar jet. Looking in the east we have ridging into Greenland (-NAO) and we have a low under cutting that moving towards the 50/50 spot. This look is primed for a major storm somewhere from the Midwest into the east. The polar jet is dropping southward with very cold temps, with a good possibility of interaction between it, the PAC and quite possibly the subtropical jet as well. Both the PAC and subtropical of which are bringing moist warm air northward towards the southwest. We have a stable -NAO in place with a potential 50/50 as well. Not shown on this map is the fact that there was a cutoff low that gets ejected a day and a half before hand that could possibly play into the future evolution of the pattern depending on the timing of the ejection. Now how this setup would play out 2-3 days down the road would be anyone's guess. I think chances favor a major storm, it would be the track that would be in question. And for those on the east coast the fact that we are seeing a -NAO as well as a 50/50 showing up is a huge positive.

Bohemian Rhapsody is in my top 10 songs of all times. Throw in a little Wayne's World and I'm good to go.

I am getting a little more then semi-excited and not just because of this one run. The last few weeks have given me a strong suspicion that the typical Nina look all the seasonal are throwing out at this point can probably be trashed, at least for the first half of winter. Now whether we benefit from any possible change is yet to be seen but I like my chances if we see the blocking and the weakened/perturbed PV that I am increasingly believing we will see. Still early in the game so things can still go south but at this point I like where we are.

PV does some wild gyrating on this run and eventually drops an extension of the PV down into N Dakota and Minnesota. Edit. we see a ridge bridge from the Aleutians through the pole into Europe.

It isn't what I call awe inspiring that's for sure . I am not sure I really buy what it is trying to sell us though As early as day 11-18 the 500 mb mean is already showing a very flat and zonal pattern through the CONUS. This look would be indicative of a strong, straight as an arrow from Russia, Pac jet entering the west coast. But when looking at the Euro at day 10 it shows another disruption and weakening of the jet creating huge waves in the flow in the central Pacific which should continue for some time. Not only that but to my eye it looks as if another disruption would probably occur several days after that as well. This can be seen on the GFS op runs that have been continually showing this follow up disruption. One other point is that a strong straight PAC jet is normally a feature we see with a strong PV and at this point in time we have anything but. Now huge undulations impacting the west coast will normally not result in a zonal flow across the CONUS as seen in the weeklies but should instead produce pronounced waves in the flow (Troughs, ridges). I think what we may actually be seeing in the day 11-18 period of time is smoothing of all the different member solutions, canceling out each other to give the false impression of a flat flow. This can be seen quite well on the EPS on the progression from day 10 to 15 as the spread between members increases the flow increasingly takes on a flatter look. We also see the same thing occurring on the GEFS though not quite as pronounced. If in fact the day 10 Pac jet disruption occurs, and especially the follow up, I would not be surprised to see the flat zonal flow in the CONUS verify as something completely different for day 11-18. And of course that would more then likely effect the rest of the weeklies forecast.

500 mb on the weeklies is finally out. Day 0-14 is pretty much on par with what we see with current guidance. Day 14-21 Shows higher heights through southern Canada and most of the US except for the Pacific Northwest. Possible east based -NAO. Northern based +PNA through Canada into Alaska. Pretty much a zonal flow through the US with a slight hint of a trough setting up in the mid section of the country. Low to neutral heights are seen over the polar region for the most part. Day 21-28 shows higher heights in the northeast. Higher heights dominate the upper latitudes for the most part on our side of the globe with what looks to also we a west based -NAO. A weak trough looks to setup in the midwest. There is a +PNA in Canada into Alaska undercut by bagginess in the southwest maybe indicative of a potential split flow/sub tropical jet. Day 28-35 shows a trough setting up towards the southwest. Again a northern based +PNA, strong at that, being undercut by a -PNA. We also see high heights off the Atlantic coast suggestive of WAR (western Atlantic ridging). No sign of blocking to be seen central Canada eastward through Greenland with low heights seen east of Greenland. Day 35-46 sees once again a northern based +PNA undercut by a -PNA. Trough extending into the southwest. Higher heights on the east coast extending into the Atlantic. Some higher latitude higher heights but little sign of blocking. Day 39-46 sees a repeat on the west coast with the PNA. Also trough looks to extend towards the southwest again. We see higher heights dominate all of N America. We also have what looks to be a +NAO setting up. The PV looks to stay disturbed/weak/elongated throughout with a slow shifting north to where we finally see it set up shop just this side of the pole extended down into eastern Russia.

Only song I learned to play on the guitar and I am using the term play, loosely. Sucked having 2 left hands when it came to the guitar. Edit: Forgot, I also learned Queens, Another one bites the dust. Another classic that you probably hate H2O.