showmethesnow

Haven't had much luck yet on picking it up. Keep checking in at different distributors but it is a seasonal beer (winter) so no one has gotten it in yet. Did pick up a couple of different coffee stouts for my 2 camping trips and neither impressed. I will say that Sam Adams stout was actually pretty good out of the 7-8 different stouts I took with me.

And winter has now officially begun for me. WxBell will now be $25 richer each month, hopefully through March.

Yeah, I saw his post but ignored it for the most part because it wasn't really worth worrying about. Just about everything I am seeing at this time points to a predominately weakened and disturbed pv this winter (implies better chances for a -AO). And the further in time we go the more confident I am that we see this in fact occur. The bigger question for me at this time is how the pv orients because all pv's are not created equal for our snow chances. In that regards I am somewhat optimistic as well and that optimism is growing. Seeing the models move towards an extension of the pv and associated troughing towards Japan and eastern Russia is encouraging as that also implies we will see an extension of the pv and troughing towards the eastern US. And that is in fact what we are now seeing. With this alignment we will get our chances and probably some good chances with the general setup we are seeing in the mid latitudes. At the times the pv is displaced more towards the other side of the globe we will have to rely on a -NAO to bring in the cold and hold it in otherwise we will see glancing blows as it runs quickly in and out. One possible positive about this though is that it may allow for an easier bump up of the southern jet at these times. On the other hand when the pv and associated trough is displaced on our side of the globe we then don't have to depend on a -NAO to lock in the cold and should have quite a bit of leeway to score. All in all, I like where we stand at this point.

Not sure why anyone would be panicking at this point. Things look good at this time leading in. Sure as hell beats last year. Don't know how many times I put an optimistic spin on something that I thought was for the most part crap just to keep the masses appeased. Really haven't looked into things this year like I normally do (just haven't had the time) but I do like what I have seen so far. For what it is worth I am leaning to a first half of winter that won't be too noteworthy but will offer up some chances none the less. 2'nd half is where I think we shine.

But I think that is part of what makes the early winter discussion threads enjoyable especially during preseason when there really is very little to discuss besides ENSO or analogs.

If you both are referring to my posts it isn't a prediction on my part on what will occur. It is just what I expected to see the models start moving to with where they continue to see the warmest anomalies in the arctic. Even if we were to see the pv more so towards the other side of the globe in the early part of winter that doesn't mean we are SOL, it just means we are probably going to be more dependent on a -NAO to help deliver the cold as the general overall setup is very good.

Never do well eyeballing for AO but that looks to me to be a neutral at worst. I think the washing out in the longer ranges is dampening what would probably be a negative AO. Wxbell doesn't have the numerical AO values by any chance? I see my guess that the pv is skewed to the other side of the globe is accurate. That semi split of the pv is located where the greatest warm anomalies have been/will be centered and the reason why I believe we see the pv featured or skewed on this run more to the other side of the globe. eta: By the way, Thanks.

Kind of surprising to see negative mslp anoms when I see warm 850's in that region. Maybe some extreme members in the ensembles throwing a curve? Or possible a couple of camps fighting it out? No worries about posting it. Not that I have the time but I am starting to get antsy for winter so I think I will just go ahead and grab Wxbell this evening. eta: Lol. See you posted a map seconds before my post.

Is it actually showing a weak +AO at the end? Kind of curious on the look. Do you have something to throw up? if not I guess I will have to dig into my wallet for weatherbell though it is a little earlier in the season then normal.

I don't get too locked in on what they show in the longer ranges unless we are in a fairly stable regime and right now we are undergoing changes so I am also not surprised that we are seeing this on the models. One of my thoughts/concerns over the last few weeks was where the warmest anomalies were setting up in the polar regions leading into winter. Though they argued for a weakened and displaced PV I thought they also argued for seeing the PV displaced more so on the other side of the globe then our side at least for the beginning and/or first half of winter. And I think this is exactly what the weeklies are now beginning to show in the longer ranges.

What I can't believe is that you didn't post it. Come on, pony up and give us our snow fix.

Really hard to go by just a snapshot at 1 layer of the atmosphere and just on our side of the globe to boot but I think the warm anomalies around the pole probably argue against a +AO. A strong PV sitting in the polar regions (+AO) would typically have cold anomalies showing. My guess is what we are seeing is the bulk of the PV has rotated to the other side of the globe at this point. And the fact we are see the warm anomalies extending from the polar regions down into the northern US only reinforces that thought in my mind. Would really like to see more maps to get a better understanding of what is going on. Guess it is about time I consider re-upping my WxBell.

You must be a blast at parties.

Thought it was winter already where you now live with the northerners.

Meh.... Seen better.