showmethesnow

Nowhere near the experience and knowledge of those on here when it comes to severe but this coming Friday into Saturday has my interest somewhat.

Admit it, you would probably be bitching if it wasn't available.

Showme is fielding offers from other teams. Winning teams. Going to keep his mouth shut until he is sure he can hook up elsewhere before he starts telling the world how the ownership of his current team sucks.

Hammered.

Hammered

And there's our April Blizzard now starting to show up. And only 17/18 days away.

Overnight Euro saw a significant flip at 500's as to where it is looking much more like the GFS (fv3) then the others (GFS, CMC. ICON). At this point though both the FV3 and the Euro are too slow with the intensification of the low (500's are lagging somewhat) and offer the best chances to our north. The looks being thrown up (Euro, FV3) are close though. Just a little deeper drop by the trough and a little shifting of the axis and/or placement would mean a world of difference to getting a bombing low at our latitude that could overcome the torching lower levels. I still place the odds as low with our chances but I think that they are much better then some may want to believe.

Vey.

500's are where we need to be keeping an eye on more so then the surface reflection as that will dance around from run to run somewhat as it respond to what it sees upstairs. And yes, any hope for us west of 95 is probably going to be centered on getting the 500's to go for the capture quickly enough where we see the low hug the coast if not even retrograde westward somewhat.

Sounds like a plan. Haven't had a beer in a month or so now so i guess I have some catching up to do.

Still trying to decide if I want to do up some corn beef myself or be lazy and go to a diner for it. I'm generally lazy so i have a good idea on which option I will take.

The GFS made a move from NO to possibly MAYBE as we see the trough dropping farther west allowing for some height rises in the east as the trough approaches. CMC has also seen improvements over previous runs where we are seeing better height rises in the east with a better turning of the trough axis. ICON is more progressive with the trough then previous runs but even that saw some improvements within the trough itself where just a slower movement eastward could mean a world of difference. Which brings us to the Euro. To put it bluntly, Dr NO crapped the bed. It loses the shortwave/energy that is the driving force for digging the trough into the south. So what we have is a weak, flat trough that there is nothing to key on. So there is no storm whatsoever. But how it loses that shortwave may be playing into one of the Euro's weaknesses/biases. What we are seeing is that when that shortwave drops down through the Plains it is now being cutoff and left behind from the broad trough where it then retrogrades it somewhat towards the SW. This MAY be playing into its habit of mishandling energy in the southwest though this is somewhat North and East of where I expect to see that occur. Considering all the guidance I see at this time argues against this and knowing one of the Euro's bias' I would tend to believe that the odds favor the Euro may be out to lunch here. Though the odds are long I still believe that there is a possibility here. But the GEFS/EPS ask me what I am smoking as they see virtually no potential at this time. And if I were a betting man I know where I would place my money. And with that, weatherbell just cut off my service. So I guess any further tracking will now be done on the limited maps that Tropical Tidbits have.

FV3 is really trying on the 00z. We see a 33mb drop in 24 hours and it is now slamming the Jersey shores up into eastern Mass with 1-2 feet of snow (10:1 snowfall maps). The immediate shore line just north of Jersey would probably see sustained winds of 30-40 mph with gusts exceeding 55 mph even reaching somewhat inland. This is impressive considering we are not seeing High pressure in place to the north and west of the storm to set up a tight gradient. Thinking @WxWatcher007would be happy with this result, as he wouldn't have to go to the snow but instead the snow would come to him.

31 mb drop in 24 hours. Can you say bombogenisis? The FV3 isn't very far from being something really good for our region.