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About showmethesnow

  • Birthday 02/22/1964

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  • Location:
    Hanover, PA

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  1. I saw PSU's rant about the southern stream and had to laugh because I felt the same way. All I can say is that with it still at range maybe the models are failing to pick up on some potential energy in the southern stream. We can always hope that is the case at least.
  2. Out of curiosity what do you take issue with?
  3. And look at what the 18Z GFS does. The blocking traps the pv lobe around the lakes extending the window to 5 or 6 days and brings a storm up from the south as that feature finally pulls out.
  4. To be honest the only thing I am worrying about at this point is to get a trough deep enough in the east that we can get any northern stream energy underneath us. The deeper and sharper we can get that the more potential upside we would have. If we can get that then I will take my chances with temps, which I think we would see cooperate in that setup.
  5. That's pretty much the window I am looking at right now. Roughly a 3 day window opening around the 7'th, which is day 9. That window could possibly be extended if we can see that PV lobe around the lakes get trapped under the blocking longer and at this point I don't think that can be ruled out. Of course this is all speculation dependent on the models being somewhat right.
  6. The look on the EPS has actually improved somewhat from the 00Z run. Still splits the pv with ridging between the PV in northwest Canada and the 50/50 that has setup. We are actually seeing a better response from that blocking in regards to the lobe that gets pinched off of the pv to the southeast just north of the lakes. This lobe feature has been shunted a little farther southwest and we are now seeing a deeper, sharper and better positioned trough in response. Edit: Forgot to mention that it also is holding that lobe feature, and consequently the trough, in a little longer which would give us a larger window to have some NS energy rotate through.
  7. It's an off run of the GFS and an op somewhat at range to boot so I would take it with a little grain of salt but it does mirror my thoughts from earlier today on the possible evolution we could see. Like the fact also that it traps the lobe underneath the blocking for a couple of days. Definitely possibilities if it were to play out in some fashion like this. Edit: I was referencing earlier in the run about day 9 onward not what you have posted at hour 384.
  8. I am still waiting for the Vodka cold he promised us almost 20 years ago.
  9. Seems that JB is hinting at similarities in the long range with the Ash Wednesday storm of 1962. Hmmm. Guess I will have to get another month of weatherbell after all. Or not.
  10. After the first glance at the overnight EPS I was about to call time of death on this crapfest of a winter. The setup at this point probably argues for us to see everything pass to our west and north short of great timing and a lot of luck. Then I looked a little harder into why we were seeing such a deterioration in the pattern from the great look we were seeing just a few days ago. And I found that maybe...JUST MAYBE... we weren't quite SOL yet. The top image is EPS day 10 from 2 days ago. As you can see what we have is the PV in northern Canada interacting with the 50/50 low with a pulse/wave riding underneath the PV giving us the trough setup moving into the Midwest. This PV setup at this time, with it being so far north as well as interacting with the 50/50 probably argues strongly against seeing the trough in the east from digging far enough south to allow any northern stream energy to pass underneath us. Now compare to the next image which shows the overnight run at day 8. Now look at the differences we are seeing up top. We are now seeing a disconnect between the PV in northern Canada, which has shifted westward somewhat, and the 50/50 which is coming in stronger because of this lack of interaction. What is causing this is the much stronger west based blocking in Greenland that is extending down towards ridging in southeastern Canada. This is effectively blocking the pulse wave that we have riding along the southern portions of the PV. We can see the effect as that wave very noticeable starts to lengthen and extend to the southeast. Now look at what the downstream implications are. Now we look 1 1/2 days later. This is the day 11.5 of the run from 2 days ago. As you can see we never had a true disconnect between the PV in northern Canada and the 50/50. Thus we have a weak 50/50 feature as well the trough in the east being broad based and shallow due to the PV setup and the fact that it is so far north. There is not much fluidity in this look in regards to the eastern trough and getting the dig at which we need to see. This is day 9.5 of the overnight run. We still see a total disconnect of the northern Canada PV with the 50/50. This lack of interaction has allowed the 50/50 as well as the ridging into Greenland to remain much stronger allowing for much better blocking. We also now see that the wave riding along the southern edge of the PV has been forced southeastward and detaching due to this blocking so that we shortly see a distinct PV lobe rotating just north of the lakes. This look shows better promise and flexibility then what we were seeing 2 days ago. So what does all this mean? Well the look 2 days ago was a fairly rigid look that depended more so on the whimsy of the PV placement in northern Canada. This PV placement, with it being so far north argued against seeing this eastern trough dig substantially into the US. The fact we also saw continual interaction between the PV and the 50/50 also argued for a broad flat trough in the east. All in all, a look that probably favored any northern stream energy to pass well to our north without any amplification until it was well north and east of our area. Now the setup being shown overnight isn't what I would consider a great look by far, but it actually gives me a little hope. We preferably want to see a sharper, deeper trough that would allow any NS energy to pass underneath us and the EPS now shows the possibility (GEFS also seems to be moving towards the EPS in this setup). With a distinct PV lobe we would no longer be depending on the PV setup in northern Canada, which was a fairly rigid setup without much play, as much as we are now depending on the lobe just north of the lakes which has a great deal more flexibility. Now here is where I see the possibilities. We have seen over the last several days of runs that the blocking in Greenland has become much stronger and further west based to where we now see ridging between the PV and the 50/50 which in turn is inducing a PV lobe to break off because of this blocking. Now let us just suppose we continue to see a strengthening of this blocking over subsequent runs. What that would most likely do is to then force that PV lobe farther south and/or west dragging the eastern trough along with it. A shift of 200/300 miles with that lobe actually would be a great look for the east coast. With a sharper, deeper trough situated down through the lakes, west based -NAO and a 50/50 the setup would argue for the possibility of northern stream energy Miller b'ing off the coast. Now we normally don't do well with Miller b's but that doesn't mean we can't cash out with an inch or two as that northern stream energy passes underneath us. And who knows, get that pv lobe to drop a little farther south....
  11. Wish I would have made that snow trip when you did. Except I think I would have crashed down at my brother's place in Va Beach. Think they had over a foot of snow down there if I recall correctly.
  12. I'm with you. Really thought we would see a better response with the trough considering the blocking and we did for a few runs. PAC has been killing us all year so why shouldn't it do so now as well. I am going to give it another day or two of runs to see if it can turn around otherwise I think I am going to call it quits and pack it in for the year.
  13. Was just going to post this. Definitely took a negative turn.
  14. Have to agree, at this point if anything were to pop up it would probably favor the northern stream. Would be a fitting end to this winter watching something Miller B off the Jersey coast and slam New York and north. I do like the fact that we do have the subtropical jet underneath us though. Think that does help to raise the odds a little that we could possibly see some southern stream interaction or maybe even something a little more. Guess all we can ask for is to see that setup verify and then we let the cards fall as they may.
  15. Eps has improved from its 00Z run for the day 10+ window. Still has the west based -NAO as well as the 50/50. Better ridging building in the west. Trough digging deeper in the east. MSLP low anomalies building southward. An improving subtropical and mid latitude jet setup. 850's cold anomalies are penetrating and expanding much deeper and stronger into the CONUS. All and all a good run.