showmethesnow

Friday and Saturday at camp and temps reached 82 with plenty of sun. Wake up this morning to mist and showers with a temp of 42. Talk about a wake-up call.

We have been in a +NAO regime forever now so hopefully if we see a -NAO throughout the summer that means the worm has turned and we are heading for a long term negative regime.

12Z GFS is coming in a little juicier for Sun night/Mon morning with 2-2.5" totals now showing up in the general DC/Balt region.

It's not a bad setup on both the overnight GFS and the Euro for some heavy rain. Euro is even wetter through the DC/Balt region. In fact I would not be surprised if they are a little underdone with the totals as the eastward push of the cold air clearing out the region is slow to occur. Would probably see some training (SW to NE) of the heavier cells of precip which could mean some localized areas could pick up substantially more. But all this is on the premise that the GFS and the Euro are right for 4 days out. If the CMC is more right then we won't get close to these totals. So pick your poison.

So rain cancel?

Overnight GFS was pretty aggressive with showing a potential deluge from a squall line running through the region Sun night/Mon morning. Euro is in good agreement with the GFS whereas the CMC just doesn't hit on all cylinders with the potential. Below we have the surface setup with a secondary low that has formed to our south and will progress through our region. The setup leading into this has seen a strong, humid southerly flow through our region at all levels. We are seeing good lift of this warm air from both the cold front driving in from our west and the low progressing through our region. Below we have a sharp contrast between the air masses (roughly 15 degrees or so) over a short distance which is indicative of good lift induced by the cold front. One other factor playing into this is that we are also seeing good jet placement where the right front entrance of the jet streak is rotating through our region providing even more lift besides the frontal and low induced lift. A good moisture supply with plenty of lift and what you get is rain and a good amount of it. Below we have the GFS total rainfall most of which is falling in a short amount of time as the squall line pushes through. Some points of interest on the map. A ) Showme has already left the campground from his very enjoyable rain free weekend getaway so at this point he doesn't care if it rains or not. B ) Showme's dogs have their priorities in order and could care less if it rains or not as long as they get fed. C ) ViceRegent is busy multitasking as he is warning us how this is a sign of the coming DEATH, DOOM, DESTRUCTION from Global Warming as he is also talking to his contractor about the 100 ft stilts he will have his house placed on to keep it above the coming sea level rises. D ) PSU is worried that he will end up between the bands of heavier precip. One to his north and one to his south. E ) Interstate is thinking 'This weather sucks, maybe I should move'. F ) DC crowd is thinking 'Why couldn't we have seen this amount of precip when it was cold?' G ) Jeb is Jebwalking/dancing in the deluge. H ) Drought guy (Stormy?) is trying to decide if he should lay low or whether he should start harping on the coming DEATH, DOOM, DESTRUCTION from the coming flooding rains. Below we have the CMC total rainfall amounts that come no where near the GFS amounts. The CMC setup is nowhere near as favorable as it doesn't see a secondary low develop, jet setup is far less favorable and most of the lift we are seeing is coming from the push of colder air. Some points of interest on the map. A ) Showme has already left the campground from his very enjoyable rain free weekend getaway so at this point he still doesn't care if it rains or not. B ) Showme's dogs still have their priorities in order and could care less if it rains or not as long as they get fed. C ) ViceRegent is still busy multitasking as he is warning us how this is a sign of the coming DEATH, DOOM, DESTRUCTION from Global Warming as he is also talking to his contractor about the 100 ft stilts he will have his house placed on to keep it above the coming sea level rises. D ) PSU is worried that he will get fringed from the north. E ) Interstate is still thinking 'This weather sucks, maybe I should move'. F ) DC crowd is shifting gears from reminding us about the DC snow-hole to now it being the the DC rain-hole. G ) Jeb is Jebwalking/dancing in the showers. H ) Drought guy (Stormy?) is busily getting his DEATH, DOOM, DESTRUCTION FROM DROUGHT thread finalized for posting.

Thought you moved already? Georgia, Florida, where ever? If moneys stopping you maybe we can start a gofundme for you? If it's the lack of a job maybe you could look into the tourist industry? Sure you would be a hit because you could yammer on day and night about the virtues of the weather there over other places, say like the mid-Atlantic? And the only reality here is the fact that your incessant whining no matter the season is/has been an absolute bore.

?????? And why are you shouting at me?

I will post occasional comments here and there but the main reason I go into those threads anymore is to go Troll hunting. It's great sport.

After many years of diving into that crap I can pretty much hold my own. In fact when all is said and told I have probably taken down my share of those polished trolls you are referring to. As they say 'been there, done that'. I just find that the last year or two it isn't really worth the effort. No opinions will be changed and inevitably any worthwhile discussion will degenerate into playground name calling or even worse as others jump into the debate.

Nice to hear. Wish I could say the same about some good long time friends (guess they weren't such good friends after all) from HS that have basically exiled me for daring to have a differing opinion. Not to mention some family members that have screamed at me, lectured me, called me an uncaring A-hole, racist, etc.. etc.. etc... just for not falling in line with their thinking. Unfortunately that is the society we live in today where the sides have been drawn up, compromise is an illusion and no quarter will be given.

LOL. Looks like that went well. Basically all the political discussion boards I have frequented have degenerated into such a state. One of the reasons i would prefer not seeing political discussions here because eventually that its what we could expect as other players jumped into the fray. Doesn't really make for a healthy atmosphere to say the least.

NE is another option we have been considering as well but the only hangup with that is the costs/taxes are much steeper for those that retire. PA is much more forgiving in that regard. But as I have warned my wife, PA is in pretty dire straits financially so I would not be surprised if in the near future they begin going after retirees savings with steep taxes. Will see where we stand 3 years down the road in that regards when we start firming our plans. Money aside, I love the country up in the NE but western Pa has the benefit of having both our families/friends within reasonable drive times.

Wife and I are considering the Laurel Highlands in western PA in 4 years or so. In the higher elevations it's very rare they see less then 100 inches and a good year can see upwards of 200+ if not 300 inches of snow.

That's about the way I see it. Though very difficult this time of year the pattern itself on the models suggests you can't fully rule out the possibility of snow at some point especially for the favored locals.