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December 28-30th Storm Obs Thread


dryslot

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Greetings from Bridgewater NH just south of Plymouth    15.7F  Vis 1 mile snow grains mixed with bigger sleet pellets   5.75" of snow.

 

Snowed at a good clip for awhile overnight and then mostly sleet.  Snow grains are coming down almost at a moderate level.  Very hard and heavy to shovel.

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...not much evidence of much icing here in Ayer, so far - tho the waning hours of this event are here.  Should see a tendency toward pulse intervals then stoppage, perhaps llv freezing drizzle and flurries.  In fact that NAM actually keeps the 6-hrly at about 1 or 2 hundreths through evening so there's likely to be the old sub-inversion saturated cold column routine.  

 

Cold wins!  as anticipated, a coastal boundary has also set up.  Noting BED is 33 F in straight rain, while somewhere between I95 and I495 temperatures are mid 20s with N drain continuing.  Given the overall synopsis of this ordeal, I don't believe the boundary gets much farther inland and may/likely in fact collapse SE as mechanics move off and the llvs "slosh" back a tad. Too much cold high due N to have anticipated this event much differently. 

 

This was a warn-able event in my opinion.  I'm sure NWS had their reasons for maintaining advisory, but all factors included (ranging between demographic concerns and the possibility of accretion/snow preceding these) I thought they got too cute with concepts.  There is no way in hell a warm December was a factor here and that was embarrassing.  But we live learn and move on... 

 

It is still possible that ZR shows up in the interior where thus far this has been primarily a sleet bomb (Rt 2 east of Orange - not entirely certain how the Pike region fared) so far, but rad trends clearly show that the steadiest/heaviest is moving off and we are in a showery back end scenario.  

 

Fun little wake up call for winter.  I like this types of divergent, non-mainstream deals... They certainly keep you on our toes - 

 

Prelim post-mortem:  the NAM did exceptionally well.  Perhaps not when in the 60 + hourly vision; but whence said was into shorter time ranges, it pegged the nagging sleet very well.  

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It is still possible that ZR shows up in the interior where thus far this has been primarily a sleet bomb (Rt 2 east of Orange - not entirely certain how the Pike region fared) so far, but rad trends clearly show that the steadiest/heaviest is moving off and we are in a showery back end scenario.  

 

 

8mi N of the Pike and there was no ZR whatsoever, and very little if any snow. 

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...not much evidence of much icing here in Ayer, so far - tho the waning hours of this event are here. Should see a tendency toward pulse intervals then stoppage, perhaps llv freezing drizzle and flurries. In fact that NAM actually keeps the 6-hrly at about 1 or 2 hundreths through evening so there's likely to be the old sub-inversion saturated cold column routine.

Cold wins! as anticipated, a coastal boundary has also set up. Noting BED is 33 F in straight rain, while somewhere between I95 and I495 temperatures are mid 20s with N drain continuing. Given the overall synopsis of this ordeal, I don't believe the boundary gets much farther inland and may/likely in fact collapse SE as mechanics move off and the llvs "slosh" back a tad. Too much cold high due N to have anticipated this event much differently.

This was a warn-able event in my opinion. I'm sure NWS had their reasons for maintaining advisory, but all factors included (ranging between demographic concerns and the possibility of accretion/snow preceding these) I thought they got too cute with concepts. There is no way in hell a warm December was a factor here and that was embarrassing. But we live learn and move on...

It is still possible that ZR shows up in the interior where thus far this has been primarily a sleet bomb (Rt 2 east of Orange - not entirely certain how the Pike region fared) so far, but rad trends clearly show that the steadiest/heaviest is moving off and we are in a showery back end scenario.

Fun little wake up call for winter. I like this types of divergent, non-mainstream deals... They certainly keep you on our toes -

Prelim post-mortem: the NAM did exceptionally well. Perhaps not when in the 60 + hourly vision; but whence said was into shorter time ranges, it pegged the nagging sleet very well.

The zone between 84 and the Pike has seen some icing, covering the trees in areas but nothing extreme.

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Had 1.5" on 0.10" LE at home, 7 AM, temp 10°.  Drive in wasn't too bad, AUG with 2" when I got here, probably another 2 since but hardly anything coming down at the moment.  More upstream, however.  FB post by our nearest neighbor showed +SN an hour ago and subsequent post 15 minutes ago noted continuing good SN.  Our place is in the 6-8" area on GYX map, and that forecast is looking good.

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