Strong Nor'Easter/Hybrid Storm Late September 2026

[uofmiami]

Latest OKX rainfall map:

[TriPol]

1 minute ago, uofmiami said:

Latest OKX rainfall map:

Issue a goddamn flood watch! What is wrong with these people?? 

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Issue a goddamn flood watch! What is wrong with these people?? 

definitely needed for LI and perhaps S CT given how wet it's been here

[straphanger]

Any word on timing with this rain?  TWC is showing Saturday is more showery in nature while putting the big rains for Saturday night into Sunday.

[Prue11]

5 minutes ago, straphanger said:

Any word on timing with this rain?  TWC is showing Saturday is more showery in nature while putting the big rains for Saturday night into Sunday.

That’s what it’s looking like. Most of the precip will fall Saturday night into Sunday 

[NEG NAO]

13 minutes ago, straphanger said:

Any word on timing with this rain?  TWC is showing Saturday is more showery in nature while putting the big rains for Saturday night into Sunday.

 

starting on eastern long island already BUT the storm is outside the benchmark and crawling will have to make a move westward  - might have showers much later tonight around NYC and eastern NJ metro

GOES-EAST US PSeUdo-Color LOOP

[Big Jims Videos]

11 minutes ago, straphanger said:

Any word on timing with this rain?  TWC is showing Saturday is more showery in nature while putting the big rains for Saturday night into Sunday.

Of course I'm supposed to go to the Yankees game Sunday. 

[Prue11]

9 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said:

Of course I'm supposed to go to the Yankees game Sunday. 

Most likely will be cancelled 

[Snowlover11]

Good thing this isn’t a winter storm weenies would be jumping ship see all that moisture off the coast and not moving much.

[GaWx]

 I’m not saying the Euro is necessarily going to be right. But I’m passing this along because it’s objectively determined and easily available to the wx community. So fwiw:

 The new Euro ensemble (12Z) maintains the 90-100% chance that the 0Z and 6Z had for a tropical storm to form from this:

The run from just 24 hrs earlier for the same period had only just over 70% for the chance:

[jm1220]

Satellite already looks like a beast incoming. 

[nycsnow]

Wouldn’t be surprised to see Long Island maybe even queens and Brooklyn get upped to high wind warning. Models seem to be increasing them sat night into Sunday 

[MJO812]

State of Emergency for NYC , Nassau, Westchester and Suffolk. 

[Brian5671]

NAM drops 3-5 inches of rain LI now

[psv88]

WHAT...For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking waves of 9
  to 15 feet in the surf zone. For the High Rip Current Risk,
  dangerous rip currents. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, up to
  one half foot of inundation above ground level expected in
  vulnerable areas near the waterfront and shoreline. For the
  Coastal Flood Warning, one to two feet of inundation above
  ground level expected in vulnerable areas near the waterfront
  and shoreline.

[MJO812]

Tunnels to towers 5k walk/ run is still going on Sunday.  I will be participating in it. Going to be interesting weather wise.

[EasternLI]

Ouch. Tomorrow night is really going to rip some winds through here. This is from the euro. 925mb plus a sounding from the same time. I usually feel like winds are whatever, but this time it looks kind of legit. Nam just spit out something similar too.

 

[IrishRob17]

19 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

State of Emergency for NYC , Nassau, Westchester and Suffolk. 

Orange County recently posted this in an attempt to get people to understand them better. 

[mob1]

11 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Ouch. Tomorrow night is really going to rip some winds through here. This is from the euro. 925mb plus a sounding from the same time. I usually feel like winds are whatever, but this time it looks kind of legit. Nam just spit out something similar too.

 

Hi Res NAM (and some other models) have this occurring a bit further north and has much tamer winds than some earlier runs. We'll see if it was just a blip but often as these events approach they trend a bit NE and weaker so we get a bit of a lackluster storm relative to expectations. 

We'll see how it unfolds, but personally I much prefer the 12Z NAM runs (despite sputting out far less precipitation. Rain events are a dime a dozen, good wind and coastal flooding is somewhat rarer). 

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Hi Res NAM (and some other models) have this occurring a bit further north and has much tamer winds than some earlier runs. We'll see if it was just a blip but often as these events approach they trend a bit NE and weaker so we get a bit of a lackluster storm relative to expectations. 

We'll see how it unfolds, but personally I much prefer the 12Z NAM runs (despite sputting out far less precipitation. Rain events are a dime a dozen, good wind and coastal flooding is somewhat rarer). 

Please stop posting the 3k NAM unless it’s for entertainment only.

[NJwx85]

18 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Ouch. Tomorrow night is really going to rip some winds through here. This is from the euro. 925mb plus a sounding from the same time. I usually feel like winds are whatever, but this time it looks kind of legit. Nam just spit out something similar too.

 

What’s interesting to me is that this sounding shows the atmosphere is well mixed and there’s no inversion. Notice how the dew point and temperature are very close together near the surface. This means winds will have no trouble mixing down.

[SnoSki14]

Current satellite looks pretty impressive.  The prolonged nature of this plus high tide I think guarantees several places meet major coastal flood category.  

[mob1]

8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Please stop posting the 3k NAM unless it’s for entertainment only.

Not really the point, other models have it as well. You want the storm to move westward at the latitude of Ocean City NJ or so and ideally before it occludes. The models that showed that earlier had the best winds Saturday night into Sunday.

[LCPhotowerx]

29 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Tunnels to towers 5k walk/ run is still going on Sunday.  I will be participating in it. Going to be interesting weather wise.

They never cancel. They did it in 2008 or 2009 in a torrential downpour

[NEG NAO]

The HRRR-Euro and NAM have a break in the precip for several hours late Saturday especially west of NYC - in other words there probably will not be steady precip the entire event

[Brian5671]

18z RGEM is a drencher for LI/CT/NYC

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

18z RGEM is a drencher for LI/CT/NYC

Wow

[jm1220]

It'll be where heavy rain bands set up that get the higher totals-I'd say Central NJ on north is in the game equally for those. 

[Yanksfan]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

18z RGEM is a drencher for LI/CT

I was afraid of that as we are starting to get into the meso range. Looks like a doozy of a storm incoming. Good sign for this winter.

[SnoSki14]

10 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Not really the point, other models have it as well. You want the storm to move westward at the latitude of Ocean City NJ or so and ideally before it occludes. The models that showed that earlier had the best winds Saturday night into Sunday.

This will increase rain totals as largest totals are on SW side of retro low. This could lead to more tree damage as you get the rains plus winds. 

Fully leafed out trees too.