Strong Nor'Easter/Hybrid Storm Late September 2026

[Brian5671]

8 minutes ago, GaWx said:

What about airport service on Sun/Mon at the 3 major NYC area airports? How did past comparable storms affect service?

You will see delays for sure.   They are so busy that even a run of the mill storm causes delays

[Snowlover11]

I wouldn’t wanna be flying in this wind i dont mind flying but hate turbulence lol

[guinness77]

lol already got branches down in my neighborhood. Canceled a reservation for our 20th anniversary dinner in Bay Shore that was supposed to be at 8pm tomorrow because that area floods rather easily, forget in a storm like this. Lol it’s always friggin something ugh. 

[jbenedet]

Pretty clear on the guidance that the evolution is mid lat cyclone to STC to tropical warm core/STC.

 

[qg_omega]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

Pretty clear on the guidance that the evolution is mid lat cyclone to STC to tropical warm core/STC.

 

Zero mention by NHC, not even an yellow so I assume they disagree?

[Rmine1]

5 minutes ago, guinness77 said:

lol already got branches down in my neighborhood. Canceled a reservation for our 20th anniversary dinner in Bay Shore that was supposed to be at 8pm tomorrow because that area floods rather easily, forget in a storm like this. Lol it’s always friggin something ugh. 

 

6 minutes ago, guinness77 said:

lol already got branches down in my neighborhood. Canceled a reservation for our 20th anniversary dinner in Bay Shore that was supposed to be at 8pm tomorrow because that area floods rather easily, forget in a storm like this. Lol it’s always friggin something ugh. 

Lakehouse? Great restaurant 

[jbenedet]

7 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Zero mention by NHC, not even a yellow so I assume they disagree?

If not in real time it will happen in the post storm reanalysis

[NJwx85]

4 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

It not in real time it will happen in the post storm reanalysis

Respectfully disagree. This is a warm  seclusion. There’s no latent heat release. Furthermore the storm dissipates as it becomes vertically stacked on Sunday night. It might have some tropical characteristics but it won’t behave like a tropical cyclone should.

[Stradivarious]

2 hours ago, 2112wxgrl said:

It just became quite gusty outside and I’m way up in Wantage. 
My daughter and her college friends are headed to OC MD this evening. They’re supposed to go to Oceans Calling tomorrow. Today’s lineup was canceled. I highly doubt tomorrow’s show will happen. The high tides have been beating up the beach there for days now.

it is all cancelled

[NEG NAO]

12Z models are all over the place with the exact tracks and timing and when and where the most intense part of the system is possibly going to make a left turn into the coast - many more questions than answers for any particular area of the region as of this afternoon. All that is certain is there is going to be flooding and high winds up and down the coast - rainfall amounts are the biggest question mark - along with the highest wind locations several miles inland especially.

[TriPol]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

12Z models are all over the place with the exact tracks and timing and when and where the most intense part of the system is possibly going to make a left turn into the coast - many more questions than answers for any particular area of the region as of this afternoon. All that is certain is there is going to be flooding and high winds up and down the coast - rainfall amounts are the biggest question mark - along with the highest wind locations several miles inland especially.

Actually, the 12z suite (excluding EURO which hasn't run yet) are pretty consistent with the track. Every single model takes the storm into central nj within 36-48 hours.

[bluewave]

The AIFS did a nice job looping this back to the coast from over 220 hrs out last week.

 

 

[NEG NAO]

Just now, TriPol said:

Actually, the 12z suite (excluding EURO which hasn't run yet) are pretty consistent with the track. Every single model takes the storm into central nj within 36-48 hours.

[MANDA]

43 minutes ago, mob1 said:

This is the track that'll yield the worst winds and coastal flooding. The models that have it go over the NY harbor or so are less extreme (this is obviously especially true for the central NJ coastline. 

True this.  Coming in along CNJ coast or a little south will maximize the tides, wind and rainfall totals over most of this sub forum. If it slides westward say along the south shore of the island than somewhat lesser impacts.  Watch trends next 12-18 hours for better clarity.  This depiction with that pressure would be worst case scenario from CNJ coast up into NYC, LI and the sound.

[NEG NAO]

10 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Actually, the 12z suite (excluding EURO which hasn't run yet) are pretty consistent with the track. Every single model takes the storm into central nj within 36-48 hours.

I posted 3 different 12Z models 2 posts above to prove my point - now its your turn to prove yours

[TriPol]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

You're talking about timing. All models take this into central NJ at some point. Just don't agree on the timing. The track is pretty consistent within 50 miles, however.

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, TriPol said:

You're talking about timing. All models take this into central NJ at some point. Just don't agree on the timing. The track is pretty consistent within 50 miles, however.

50 miles makes a big difference especially for my area in north central NJ

[TriPol]

12z EURO on board with central NJ landfall by Saturday evening/Sunday morning. 

[TriPol]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

50 miles makes a big difference especially for my area in north central NJ

As someone as experienced as you are, I'm sure you are acutely aware that even the best weather models disagree with one another over time, strength and precise location of a storm. No model will give you the exact LAT/LONG for a landfalling Nor'East, hurricane, or even a Nor'Easter in January.

 

The idea that this storm is going to impact New England the most is dead. Long Island/NYC points south are going to be the highest impacted from this storm. The NWS is dropping the ball on this completely.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, TriPol said:

As someone as experienced as you are, I'm sure you are acutely aware that even the best weather models disagree with one another over time, strength and precise location of a storm. No model will give you the exact LAT/LONG for a landfalling Nor'East, hurricane, or even a Nor'Easter in January.

 

The idea that this storm is going to impact New England the most is dead. Long Island/NYC points south are going to be the highest impacted from this storm. The NWS is dropping the ball on this completely.

And yet the news stations have the most rainfall in SNE.

[TriPol]

Just now, MJO812 said:

And yet the news stations have the most rainfall in SNE.

How can they live with themselves?

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, TriPol said:

How can they live with themselves?

They always do this with storms

 

[mob1]

17 minutes ago, TriPol said:

12z EURO on board with central NJ landfall by Saturday evening/Sunday morning. 

Can you please post it? Curious is to where exactly it comes ashore. 

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, mob1 said:

Can you please post it? Curious is to where exactly it comes ashore. 

yeah post it 12Z euro just started running on Tidbits and Pivitol

[TriPol]

2 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Can you please post it? Curious is to where exactly it comes ashore. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2026092506/ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_19.png

[mob1]

1 minute ago, TriPol said:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2026092506/ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_19.png

Thanks but that's 06Z. 12Z is running now on Pivotal so we'll see in a few.