Septorcher 2026 Discussion - Endless Summer

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Weathernext deep mind has a ton turning west south of ACK to BID line. Even a few into NJ. 

KFS has been all over this track 

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Really? Wow did not even know it existed.  Although I haven’t been on here in months, so I’m behind the latest stuff.  Thanks Scott. 

Yeah it’s really interesting. Google DeepMind has been the best in tropical in the Atlantic two years in a row now, and the weathernext has been the top performer overall. The machines really have been good…even going back to their hits last winter…

[MJO812]

Steve D is on his live chat talking about the upcoming Noreaster

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah it’s really interesting. Google DeepMind has been the best in tropical in the Atlantic two years in a row now, and the weathernext has been the top performer overall. The machines really have been good…even going back to their hits last winter…

There’s an article about how they developed this model. Pretty insane for not using any of the physics we incorporate in current models. I had ChatGPT summarize it lol. 

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There’s an article about how they developed this model. Pretty insane for not using any of the physics we incorporate in current models. I had ChatGPT summarize it lol. 

AI summarizing Ai…, my how lazy we’re becoming. 

[powderfreak]

16 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

AI summarizing Ai…, my how lazy we’re becoming. 

Human evolution.  Always building tools.

It could be the invention of a hammer, or talking to AI, but our species is dedicated to solving every inconvenience.  It’s our nature, even if it leads to negative consequences.

[MarkO]

Warm core?

[Diggiebot]

High astronomical tides and long fetch will be the story. High Gusts will be on the coast and waves 15-20 maybe up to 30 or more feet could be major coastal flooding if it sets up right. Inland it’s rain as the big threat. Could easily be a dud inland tho. 

[powderfreak]

Drought.

[WxWatcher007]

GFS twins are big hits especially in eastern NE. 

[tunafish]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Drought.

That would be a good start to reducing the deficit along all coastal ME.

[MJO812]

AI euro coming in west of 18z so far

[vortex95]

16 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Well your boss.. Vortex95 says it’s coming and coming hard . So it’s coming . 

Can't deny the ECMWF's consistency.  Get ready.  Perhaps the nastiest nor'easter on record for Sep for SNE.  I can't recall anything like this fcst in Sep here.

Seems like @CoastalWx is looking for reason for it not to happen or at very least taking the ho-hum approach.  No passion or excitement.  

It's not like the models are all over the place (minus the GFS, but no surprise there), so a big event prob looks quite high.

[vortex95]

12 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I'd say having the initial development happen further southwest in warmer waters, which could allow for the low at the start to have more tropical characteristics (deeper warm core, persistent convection closer to the center, banding features). The further north it heads however the more purely baroclinic it's going to be given SSTs, and the capture would just hasten the full transition to a typical extratropical nor'easter. 

At the end of the day however, the impacts wouldn't be substantively different unless this were leaning tropical and then scooting north imo. 

All that said, I think it's unlikely to ever be designated, even if it looked good. Recent history shows that the NHC tends to be slow on these.

Did you know that October 2021 became Subtropical Storm Wanda? It was designated days after it delivered legitimate C1 wind gusts and damage to the coast.

 

Last September saw a low that was probably subtropical given its appearance in its final hours before "landfall", but it never got designated. 

Quite a temperature contrast. For the most part, our region is much warmer than normal, but this is what it gets you. Isn't 24C around the usual line for subtropical development?

 STS can and do occur w/ SSTs as low as 15 C.  And you can get hurricanes below 26 C easily.  That thing in Jan 2023 S of New England that NHC ignored operationally that had a persistent, defined eye and remarkably deep convection for Jan was over 21-23 C SSTs when it formed, and it actually looked best when it well SE of ACK over SSTs closer to 18 C!  NHC in retrospect called it a 60 kt STS, but you look at satellite?  Let me put it this way, they have called things *far* worse or lame-looking fully tropical cyclones!  Dvorak T-numbers got as high as 4.5 (77 kt).

Funniest things I found is that while this thing was there, we got a period of S- in SNE! @CoastalWxbe like, "no freakin' WAY!!!!"  
 

[CoastalWx]

Deep mind with a bunch of members near ACK and then members south of BID and eastern LI. Euro retros south of the islands and then peels SW towards SE NJ.  Ensembles still split. Either way a good storm seems more likely from SNE to Long Island. Don’t expect much coastal impacts towards NYC as the winds are more north. But strong winds and some rain look to happen there too. 

[CoastalWx]

GFS is so bad. It’s what this administration did to the funding.

[jbenedet]

The GFS continues to focus on the synoptic forcing near the mid latitudes for the primary surface reflection development; whereas the Euro and euroAI are much further southwest with the best area of surface pressure falls, driven by tropical forcing — latent heat release.

[jbenedet]

We should see less divergence in the major guidance later today as the storm starts to take shape off the coast of the Carolina’s.

[SnoSki14]

4 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

The GFS continues to focus on the synoptic forcing near the mid latitudes for the primary surface reflection development; whereas the Euro and euroAI are much further southwest with the best area of surface pressure falls, driven by tropical forcing — latent heat release.

Lots of convection ongoing in western Atlantic. I'm surprised NHC has 0% odds of anything developing.  SSTs are well AN in that region. 

[kdxken]

24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS is so bad. It’s what this administration did to the funding.

They're using it for snipers and drones on top of the triumph Arch. Communist.

[kdxken]

Storm looks on track. Can't wait! Didn't want to go golfing or the brewfest anyway. Much rather sit by the computer for 4 days checking wind gusts at Blue hills. Sickos.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, vortex95 said:

Can't deny the ECMWF's consistency.  Get ready.  Perhaps the nastiest nor'easter on record for Sep for SNE.  I can't recall anything like this fcst in Sep here.

Seems like @CoastalWx is looking for reason for it not to happen or at very least taking the ho-hum approach.  No passion or excitement.  

It's not like the models are all over the place (minus the GFS, but no surprise there), so a big event prob looks quite high.

Big damage for all

[Masswx]

6z icon fun for all

[weatherwiz]

Hopefully utility companies getting some help on standby 

[SouthCoastMA]

59 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS is so bad. It’s what this administration did to the funding.

RGEM looks similar.  Look at how much slower the 0z Euro was compared to yesterday. I'm waiting a bit to lock. maybe like 12Z or 0z tonight

[weatherwiz]

what a beast

[qg_omega]

11 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

RGEM looks similar.  Look at how much slower the 0z Euro was compared to yesterday. I'm waiting a bit to lock. maybe like 12Z or 0z tonight

Euro is alone and wrong 

[Damage In Tolland]

16 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Hopefully utility companies getting some help on standby 

Hopefully the grid collapses . We need this 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Deep mind with a bunch of members near ACK and then members south of BID and eastern LI. Euro retros south of the islands and then peels SW towards SE NJ.  Ensembles still split. Either way a good storm seems more likely from SNE to Long Island. Don’t expect much coastal impacts towards NYC as the winds are more north. But strong winds and some rain look to happen there too. 

I wish  we could get this evolution during the winter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

One of these days, Boris will make a post without tagging Scott.

ALL @CoastalWx ALL DAY... @CoastalWx, @CoastalWx, @CoastalWx!!!!!!!