3/16/26 Severe Weather Event Thread (Day 2 MOD Risk) | Latest: 15% TOR, 60% WIND, 5% HAIL

[EstorilM]

I have a weird vibe about this one… going to be a wild day tomorrow. 
 

Wish I had my ham license but it’ll definitely be a Skywarn / spotter network day (I still have all the radios, just can’t really [legally] transmit lol.) 

[Eskimo Joe]

30 minutes ago, ibawahu said:

How does this event compare to the 2012 derecho?

That's an entirely different event.

[bncho]

I’m so ready for the 3” of wet snow that will cover the remains of my house after it gets hit by a tornado

[yoda]

And now it's time for pressing the refresh button for the 1730z SPC OTLK lol

[Kmlwx]

Whoa...
https://x.com/Drewshearer444/status/2033233835303878839

That would be crazy - even if it's more driven by the new outlook methods. I don't think Maryland has ever had a high risk if that's what he is implying they'd upgrade to. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, Kmlwx said:

Whoa...
https://x.com/Drewshearer444/status/2033233835303878839

That would be crazy - even if it's more driven by the new outlook methods. I don't think Maryland has ever had a high risk if that's what he is implying they'd upgrade to. 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[Kmlwx]

I very much doubt we will ever see a D2 high risk in the Mid-Atlantic. Even in a scenario like this - some form of failure mode exists. 

[Kmlwx]

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

And wasn't it you who said he is conservative normally? 

My personal thought is that we *don't* go to high risk - but it doesn't lessen the impact to many people that this system may have. 

[TSSN+]

130 update looks like a hold 

[Kmlwx]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

130 update looks like a hold 

Yep - looks like zero changes locally. Discussion mentions continued uncertainty. The messaging is already intense - I think it's the right call not to bump to a HIGH. 

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

And wasn't it you who said he is conservative normally? 

My personal thought is that we *don't* go to high risk - but it doesn't lessen the impact to many people that this system may have. 

Yes he's extremely conservative. 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

Yep - looks like zero changes locally. Discussion mentions continued uncertainty. The messaging is already intense - I think it's the right call not to bump to a HIGH. 

At day 2 ya don’t see it yet. But if we are clearing by afternoon tomorrow then maybe. 

[yoda]

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1230 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

   Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF
   SOUTH CAROLINA...NORTH CAROLINA...VIRGINIA...MARYLAND...AND
   WASHINGTON D.C...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Widespread severe storms are anticipated on Monday across the
   Southeast and Mid-Atlantic States. Tornadoes, some strong, and
   particularly damaging winds are most likely from parts of South
   Carolina to Maryland during the afternoon.

   ...Synopsis...
   An expansive upper trough from WI to the Ark-La-Tex will further
   amplify as the basal portion pivots rapidly northeastward towards
   the Appalachians. A deep surface cyclone over Lower MI will progress
   into QC, with an occluded front arcing southward to a minor low over
   western to central NY by Monday afternoon. A sharp cold front will
   extend south of this low across the Southeast into the northeast
   Gulf, sweeping east across the entire Atlantic Seaboard by 12Z
   Tuesday.

   ...East...
   No change has been made to the ongoing level 4-MDT risk, with some
   expansion of the 3-ENH in GA, as well as expansions of 1-2/MRGL-SLGT
   across NY and FL. The highly meridional deep-layer flow regime
   suggests that surface-based instability appears more likely to
   develop into NY on Monday afternoon. This type of flow regime, along
   with substantial early-day convection south, both render some
   uncertainty on intensity amplitudes for wind/tornado across much of
   the ENH-MDT risk areas. 

   A broken band of pre-frontal convection should be ongoing at 12Z
   Monday from the lee of the southern Appalachians to the FL
   Panhandle. The downstream environment will already be favorable for
   supercells including strong tornado potential. With mid to upper 60s
   surface dew points and initially modestly steep mid-level lapse
   rates, a plume of moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg
   should diurnally expand from north FL through at least SC. Any
   semi-discrete supercells in this environment will have the potential
   to produce a strong tornado and large hail through early afternoon
   before large-scale outflow likely shifts offshore of the GA/north FL
   coast. 

   Destabilization farther north from NC to the DE Valley appears more
   uncertain, with potential for near-coastal convection within the
   low-level warm conveyor limiting more expansive/robust
   boundary-layer heating. A plume of weak MLCAPE up to 1000 J/kg
   should still develop across the Piedmont into parts of the coastal
   plain. Although flow fields will be highly meridional, they will be
   quite strong with an intense 700-mb jet strengthening across the
   Southeast behind the surface cold front. This will yield enlarged
   low-level hodograph curvature across much of the pre-frontal
   warm-moist sector.

   Even weak boundary-layer heating will be sufficient for
   intensification of an extensive QLCS from western to central
   portions of NY/PA southward through VA/NC towards midday/early
   afternoon. Embedded supercell structures should be most pronounced
   south, where breaks in the QLCS are more probable. Some of these
   could be long-track with sporadic strong tornadoes, in addition to
   the background widespread damaging winds anticipated with the QLCS.
   This activity will eventually interact with cool trajectories near
   the coastal Atlantic and should result in waning of severe potential
   in the Northeast near sunset.

   ..Grams.. 03/15/2026

 

[yoda]

14 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

https://x.com/JBuchinskyWX/status/2033233276844773694

 

[high risk]

I don’t see this as getting to a high risk tomorrow.   If you read the updated day 2, they note a number of potential problems.   Again, the ceiling for this event is very, very high.  But the floor, while still significant, is lower than some people realize. 

[nj2va]

I’d rather not widespread severe and risk having trees fall on our house.

[Kmlwx]

5 minutes ago, high risk said:

I don’t see this as getting to a high risk tomorrow.   If you read the updated day 2, they note a number of potential problems.   Again, the ceiling for this event is very, very high.  But the floor, while still significant, is lower than some people realize. 

In my mind right now - the "floor" is probably something like a semi-solid squall line of widespread 50-60mph winds with the synoptic winds behind it. Still could yield a lot of damage reports which could verify a high percentage (even if not high CIG) I suppose. 

I guess I could see a scenario where they pull the trigger on a high - but I agree with others that it would not be before 1630z tomorrow - and if they did it we'd potentially see one of those mesoscale discussions a couple hours before the actual outlook update to say "CATEGORICAL UPGRADE" 

I still think this is a moderate risk through and through - but can't deny some of the dynamics at play. If people "want" a high risk just for the wow factor - the messaging has already been intense enough all weekend to get the word out. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

11 minutes ago, yoda said:

https://x.com/JBuchinskyWX/status/2033233276844773694

 

What’s the h word?

[yoda]

Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

What’s the h word?

High risk

[Warm Nose]

7 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I’d rather not widespread severe and risk having trees fall on our house.

Ground is wet. Winds are gonna be strong. Not a great recipe.

I have 80-100-foot trees on three sides.

[NorthArlington101]

With the new rating system you can more easily have a wind-driven high risk. High risk is less likely to equal a massive tornado day… same with moderate. I still don’t think we need a high risk upgrade, but you could probably justify it tomorrow if we uptrend even slightly.

[Nomz]

I think people are underestimating the ability for any open warm sector storms to blow up and start spinning. 700mb forcing for ascent on this event is absolutely absurd and there are some other subtle features (confluence band?) that could help OWS convection as well.

[CAPE]

This potential severe outbreak has inspired a profile pic change from Winter to Spring mode. I think I took that one back in 2015 from the end of my driveway.

I will be driving from work northeastward towards home late afternoon tomorrow. I may adjust the timing based on actual conditions.

[Ji]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

This potential severe outbreak has inspired a profile pic change from Winter to Spring mode. I think I took that one back in 2015 from the end of my driveway.

I will be driving from work northeastward towards home late afternoon tomorrow. I may adjust the timing based on actual conditions.

make sure you change it back to winter after this event

[CAPE]

Just now, Ji said:

make sure you change it back to winter after this event

It's not over, at least potentially... if the NA look materializes and we can time a wave.

[GreyHat]

Just think they are still clearing up trees from that severe snow storm that hit here. There are a lot of trees still leaning over roads. If those winds are bad with the rain, that will bring the rest of them down.

I get off work at 2 p.m. and wondering if the bay bridge maybe closed for traffic. I guess I'll take a overnight bag for a hotel.

[Kmlwx]

https://x.com/forecaster25/status/2033247105238569123

[aldie 22]

@stormtracker

[09-10 analogy]

Im seeing "HSLC" a lot. Does that stand for "high shear, low CAPE"?