2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion

[WxUSAF]

8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

That cluster looks like garbage. Just a bunch of crapvection. Tornado risk is the best east of here into S New Jersey, IMO.

Yeah, I’m not impressed for more than a breezy shower for MBY

2 minutes ago, Kleimax said:

Storm east of Thurmont could get interesting 

Has a nice hook for the moment…

[wxmeddler]

Internally, it seems that SPC wanted to get something out as storms were firing earlier than expected on the Blue Ridge and the Chestertown cell. And now are replacing the areas where they feel the red box is needed.

[mappy]

7 minutes ago, wxmeddler said:

Red

Hahahah I was coming to eat my words lol

[mappy]

3 minutes ago, wxmeddler said:

Internally, it seems that SPC wanted to get something out as storms were firing earlier than expected on the Blue Ridge and the Chestertown cell. And now are replacing the areas where they feel the red box is needed.

That makes sense. I too thought it would be red and was surprised when they went blue

[wxmeddler]

Just now, mappy said:

Hahahah I was coming to eat my words lol

Need a Blue Box / Red Box version of the Duck Season / Rabbit Season Looney Toons skit.

[Eskimo Joe]

8 minutes ago, wxmeddler said:

Red

Both. You win two prizes!

[H2O]

This is a doo doo event DC South 

[wxmeddler]

18z LWX Sounding

[yoda]

AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
331 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Severe and Tornado Watches have been issued for parts of the
area until 10 PM.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- Severe and Tornado Watches are in effect until 10 PM.

- After a brief lull Friday, additional showers and a few
  thunderstorms are possible Friday night into Saturday.

- Thunderstorm chances increase on Sunday before drier
  conditions move in early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...


KEY MESSAGE 1...Severe and Tornado Watches are in effect until
10 PM.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

Our atmosphere is characterized by 90F temps and mid 70s
dewpoints with up to 3500 J/KG of MUCAPE, DCAPE of 418 J/kg, 40
kt of 0-6 km shear, and 0-3 km SRH of 220 m^2/S^2 based on our
18Z IAD sounding. Storms have already exhibited mid-level
rotation, particularly the one over the eastern shore of MD.
Expect discrete supercells this afternoon with a sig tornado
potential, particularly along and south of I-70 where 18Z
gridded NUCAPS data showed a tight low-level moisture gradient.
By evening, storms may congeal into an MCS or line as shown in
earlier and most recent HRRR forecasts. Flash flooding risk is
expected to remain low due to progressive storm motions of
around 27kt, but brief intense rainfall rates of 2"/hour are
possible.

[SnowenOutThere]

7 minutes ago, wxmeddler said:

18z LWX Sounding

That’s an impressive sounding for us. The low level directional shear is way better than I expected. 

[mappy]

Severe warned storm to my north

[vortex95]

18 minutes ago, wxmeddler said:

18z LWX Sounding

That is outstanding low-level shear. "Hockey stick" hodograph at low-levels.  0-0.5 km shear of 29 kt?  Wow.  SCP 14.8. Mid-level lapse rates not good, but mesocyclone presence can compensate for that if we can get a storm established/persist.  Ride any boundaries!

And yet the current storm closest to DC just can't do it!  

[BlizzardNole]

19 minutes ago, H2O said:

This is a doo doo event DC South 

We were thinking of grilling out this evening and that looks to be a go.  Bright sunny afternoon/evening down here

[yoda]

Initiation trying near Harrisonburg 

[rjvanals]

Quite the storm in Potomac 

[mappy]

The line forming is going to be so lame when it comes thru here… then will blow up and hit the same spots that have been getting storms all summer 

[weatherCCB]

0.39” in 10 minutes 

sun trying pop out now

[wxmeddler]

14 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

That is outstanding low-level shear. "Hockey stick" hodograph at low-levels.  0-0.5 km shear of 29 kt?  Wow.  SCP 14.8. Mid-level lapse rates not good, but mesocyclone presence can compensate for that if we can get a storm established/persist.  Ride any boundaries!

And yet the current storm closest to DC just can't do it!  

MLCAPE of 1100 and skinny. 0-3km CAPE is only ~70. The 3-8km shear is only ~10kts. I'm thinking water loading in the upper levels is leading to cold pool production that's killing the balance.

If anything today I expect low level rotation with scud tendril funnels.

[vortex95]

The Colesville storm has the "look," like it is ready to go anytime!

EDIT: Ragged wall cloud evident seen from College Park.
 

[dailylurker]

35 minutes ago, H2O said:

This is a doo doo event DC South 

I thought this was susposed to be east of DC and the Eastern Shore. It just ended up Frederick and Glan Burnie  This thunderstorm season has been super boring in my area.  I've watch probably 15 thunderstorms miss me and hit Glen Burnie. 

[dailylurker]

6 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

The Colesville storm has the "look," like it is ready to go anytime!

EDIT: Ragged wall cloud evident seen from College Park.
 

That's Glen Burnies next tornado. I should just drive up there lol

[vortex95]

3 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

I thought this was susposed to be east of DC and the Eastern Shore. It just ended up Frederick and Glan Burnie  This thunderstorm season has been super boring in my area.  I've watch probably 15 thunderstorms miss me and hit Glen Burnie. 

It may well be still.

[vortex95]

13 minutes ago, wxmeddler said:

MLCAPE of 1100 and skinny. 0-3km CAPE is only ~70. The 3-8km shear is only ~10kts. I'm thinking water loading in the upper levels is leading to cold pool production that's killing the balance.

If anything today I expect low level rotation with scud tendril funnels.

Darn those mid level winds!  Does not push the precip downwind enough!  However, legit supercell passed just N of College Park w/ a ragged wall cloud  (pix through the window ).

 

[dailylurker]

1 minute ago, vortex95 said:

It may well be still.

Yeah. Looking at radar and satellite gives me hope. That outflow boundary near DC might be the focal point of new storms that effect PG and AA countries. I need some action. I'd love one training event. 

[yoda]

Looks like @WxUSAF got a nice quick hit

[WxUSAF]

Just now, yoda said:

Looks like @WxUSAF got a nice quick hit

Yeah it’s a car wash out there. Deluge. But not much else outside some thunder 

[frd]

Is Mount Holly's  website down ?          https://www.weather.gov/phi/

I really hope not, but I can't get it to load. 

[frd]

Dover DE Tornado warning 

[yoda]

30 minutes ago, yoda said:

Initiation trying near Harrisonburg 

Madison to Culpepper storms going up

[AlexD1990]

3 minutes ago, frd said:

Dover DE Tornado warning 

same storm that prompted the earlier warning. storm has maintained rotation throughout the afternoon