February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: Buckle Up!

[H2O]

snow to rain to snow.  WOOOOOshitWOOOO

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

Please tell me  you're joking

Ratings and clicks, ratings and clicks!! Especially as weenies see brighter sun and longer days, pitchers and catchers report and click bait people get worried.  Us here though we know the drill: Severe Weather Season, Heat, Hurricanes to track, then winter weather outlooks begin, and off to tacking the next FOLKS in 2026-27!

[stormy]

My 3 model blend from the big 3 is 9 inches out here in Augusta.    12 from the Euro and GEM make up for the 3 from the stingy GFS. 

 QP is 1.90" Euro,  1.35" GEM and .35" GFS

Kuchera no good this time around.

 

[Kevin Reilly]

52 minutes ago, Nomz said:

I hope the mix line sets up 5 miles north of your backyard

Yea the NAM at hour 234 have the sleet line in southern New York State! 

[Kevin Reilly]

46 minutes ago, Ji said:

so Euro is a smidge too north and AI is too south...you know where this is going right?

Yes!  North Carolina outer banks stage right!

[dailylurker]

35 minutes ago, Ji said:

this is really the only place i can be myself(negative and weenie)

I follow your page. That's a lie lol

[Kevin Reilly]

38 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Snow to rain to most. Still a decent front hit. Just need it to get a little colder. 
 

The snow pack will save us!  I mean lock the cold air at the surface for freezing rain and power outages.

[psuhoffman]

59 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Snow to rain to most. Still a decent front hit. Just need it to get a little colder. 
 

The thermal profile of the storm is fine...the track is just a slight bit inside what we want...adjust track of the secondary 50 miles SE and its a huge snowstorm 95 NW.  I could waste my time digging into exactly why the track is slightly inside perfect but I am not going to because we are going to see way more error adjustment than 50 miles at this range...the whole thing is going to change...timing will adjust some, the thermals could get colder and then this track could work...the track could shift 100 miles either way...and those would be considered extremely minor errors and a huge win if thats all this adjusts from 200 hours out!  

[GreyHat]

Couple cutters then this one, for delmarva long range forecast has been  advertising 40s through 18th with rain 12-17.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

i have to play this stupid role on this forum but when it comes down to it---i have some knowledge lol. But with so many great mets on this board...the last thing you need is my forecasting 2 cents.

I know, I've said this numerous times.  I actually find your performace to be entertaining...but I know some do not.  The bigger problem is there are now 100 others trying to do what you do...and it's hard to moderate them when one of the board OGs is doing it.  

[GreyHat]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The thermal profile of the storm is fine...the track is just a slight bit inside what we want...adjust track of the secondary 50 miles SE and its a huge snowstorm 95 NW.  I could waste my time digging into exactly why the track is slightly inside perfect but I am not going to because we are going to see way more error adjustment than 50 miles at this range...the whole thing is going to change...timing will adjust some, the thermals could get colder and then this track could work...the track could shift 100 miles either way...and those would be considered extremely minor errors and a huge win if thats all this adjusts from 200 hours out!  

Yep, changes will happen. 

[GreyHat]

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Money panel before everyone flips

GFS earlier this morning showed something like this, so you know it won't happen. 

Will see next Wednesday Thursday 

[Bob Chill]

51 minutes ago, Ji said:

where is the post PD torch?

 

 

Ukie says don't even write off the pre-PD3 event lol

 

Models breaking persistence too quickly has been a thing for as long as I've played this game. In both directions many times. Since most of our winters kinda stink it feels like that only works against us but persistence is a real thing and toning down warmth in the LR has been happening since early fall lol. It doesn't surprise me at all that guidance has been easing off the warmth part of the pattern. Remember JFM 2014? Day 15 warmth was a staple in guidance. Remember how it went lol?

We need a pattern change or it will just keep being dry and cold. Looks pretty locked in that flow will be MUCH more active than its been for many weeks. Back off on the warmth and keep sending shortwaves our way every 3-4 days and we're bound to chaos/luck into something.  

[midatlanticweather]

27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The thermal profile of the storm is fine...the track is just a slight bit inside what we want...adjust track of the secondary 50 miles SE and its a huge snowstorm 95 NW.  I could waste my time digging into exactly why the track is slightly inside perfect but I am not going to because we are going to see way more error adjustment than 50 miles at this range...the whole thing is going to change...timing will adjust some, the thermals could get colder and then this track could work...the track could shift 100 miles either way...and those would be considered extremely minor errors and a huge win if thats all this adjusts from 200 hours out!  

Waste your time.. We appreciate your input!! 

[stormy]

The model which started this train has lost interest.

Since the 12z ensembles are in, my 7 model blend has dropped to 5.15".

[midatlanticweather]

We can hope. But usually when your idea the southern extent you get screwed... Unless you have a massive block that makes it slide south.. But it is still time to track.. So that is good 

[stormy]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Ukie says don't even write off the pre-PD3 event lol

 

Models breaking persistence too quickly has been a thing for as long as I've played this game. In both directions many times. Since most of our winters kinda stink it feels like that only works against us but persistence is a real thing and toning down warmth in the LR has been happening since early fall lol. It doesn't surprise me at all that guidance has been easing off the warmth part of the pattern. Remember JFM 2014? Day 15 warmth was a staple in guidance. Remember how it went lol?

We need a pattern change or it will just keep being dry and cold. Looks pretty locked in that flow will be MUCH more active than its been for many weeks. Back off on the warmth and keep sending shortwaves our way every 3-4 days and we're bound to chaos/luck into something.  

Is it possible that the pattern is beginning to feel the warming ENSO?  

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[nw baltimore wx]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Who are you and what have you done with Ji 

[GreyHat]

12z GFS says give it to NC/VA again as the HP suppresses it down. Neat to see all the different outcomes. 

Different model 12z runs show 2m temps warm with the exception of Euro and GFS.

I also notice the 850mb level is warm on all 12z models,  the 700mb level is cold on all 12z model runs.

[Jake Wx]

yea... were not torching 

[Chris78]

I'm kind of surprised how awful the eps snow mean is for next weekend.

A little deflating

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, Chris78 said:

I'm kind of surprised how awful the eps snow mean is for next weekend.

A little deflating

The EPS hasn't been amazing this season IMO.   I'll take a blend of everything at 10 days and not even focus on one model suite.

[ravensrule]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I know, I've said this numerous times.  I actually find your performace to be entertaining...but I know some do not.  The bigger problem is there are now 100 others trying to do what you do...and it's hard to moderate them when one of the board OGs is doing it.  

This is where being the only board pervert comes in handy. 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[Ji]

41 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I'm kind of surprised how awful the eps snow mean is for next weekend.

A little deflating

they are just warm. They got warmer than from 00z

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

they are just warm. They got warmer than from 00z

Which is a bit odd/inconsistent in light of Jake Wx's post above.

[somecallmetim]

43 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

This is where being the only board pervert comes in handy. 

You mean pubicly. Sorry, I meant publicly. 

[Ji]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Which is a bit odd/inconsistent in light of Jake Wx's post above.

he isnt using the proper date range smh. You have to use this:

AI

EPS

[Chris78]

9 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Which is a bit odd/inconsistent in light of Jake Wx's post above.

That was a 10 day mean. Warm wet/cold dry?