February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: Buckle Up!

[blizzardmeiser]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

90% of our winters end in disappointment. March snow has nothing to do with it.  

Winter has been good so far.It doesn’t need to be “saved”.

[SnowenOutThere]

2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

And btw, the pattern we just had really delivered. We just didn’t have all of the luck on our side. Could just as easily have had 2 blizzards in one week, so if I see Jan 2026 analog again, I’ll by honking loudly about it.

Yep, our historically run in the past 10 years has been a combination of failing to get good patterns combined with the extremely frustrating habit of wasting the patterns we do get. Is what it is but does continue to sting that we are going to exit another rare respite in our bad patterns with two close calls. 

[Jake Wx]

Euro with a light clipper On Friday 

[SnowenOutThere]

Anyways, if we are getting a warmer break in our winter I do hope we manage to get some pleasant days out. While the snowpack (icepack?) has been nice I'm ready to be able to go outside without being bundled up. Hopefully will go to Shenandoah this Tuesday to see the frozen ice falls before they melt. 

[Bob Chill]

Just caught up with this thread. In a nutshell.... lol

[Terpeast]

30 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Yep, our historically run in the past 10 years has been a combination of failing to get good patterns combined with the extremely frustrating habit of wasting the patterns we do get. Is what it is but does continue to sting that we are going to exit another rare respite in our bad patterns with two close calls. 

Nothing new. Lived through some bad runs and plenty of close misses here. 

At least everything is still white here with 6 ft snow piles as if we had just gotten a flush hit. 

[snowfan]

I’d head to the hills this coming weekend. Gonna be an upslope show out there.

[Ji]

Just caught up with this thread. In a nutshell.... lol

So in one day the entire month fell apart lol

[Blizzard of 93]

18z AI EPS is interested in a potential Winter storm window during Valentines/Presidents Day weekend.

[jayyy]

18z AI EPS is interested in a potential Winter storm window during Valentines/Presidents Day weekend.

Bob chill Bowl pattern!


.

[snowfan]

[GreyHat]

25 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

18z AI EPS is interested in a potential Winter storm window during Valentines/Presidents Day weekend.

Yes, the week 12-14 which could be snow, sleet, freezing rain for Delaware.  That's what the long range is showing right now. That would not be fun after this one we had.

[Climate175]

31 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

18z AI EPS is interested in a potential Winter storm window during Valentines/Presidents Day weekend.

That period is looking interesting…

[Terpeast]

32 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

18z AI EPS is interested in a potential Winter storm window during Valentines/Presidents Day weekend.

Looks like a potential swfe overrunning event from midwest to NE, but could include us depending on how well we hang onto the cold. Usual disclaimer applies

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

So in one day the entire month fell apart lol

It was a fun ride while if lasted. See ya in September when you cancel next winter. 

[stormtracker]

Almost time to change my avatar to reflect the mood 

[Bob Chill]

41 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Looks like a potential swfe overrunning event from midwest to NE, but could include us depending on how well we hang onto the cold. Usual disclaimer applies

My yard is walking the ptype line but your yard is gtg haha

 

[Maestrobjwa]

31 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Almost time to change my avatar to reflect the mood 

What's the full picture of that? I don't believe I've seen that portrait!

P.S. I'm gonna keep bugging you about watching the Beethoven docu-drama until you do 

[stormtracker]

12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

What's the full picture of that? I don't believe I've seen that portrait!

P.S. I'm gonna keep bugging you about watching the Beethoven docu-drama until you do 

I have no idea, found it on the intewebz.  What's the name of the docu drama again?

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, snowfan said:

I’d head to the hills this coming weekend. Gonna be an upslope show out there.

Might take the kids to snowshoe 

[stormy]

2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

18z AI EPS is interested in a potential Winter storm window during Valentines/Presidents Day weekend.

The H5 charts may be fine but the ECMWF AI ens often grossly inflates the snowfall expectations. Gave me 16.5 inches last week and I received 6.   On Dec. 8 it gave me 12 and I received 3.5".

[Amped]

Both the GFS and the CMC develop  strong Gulf of Alaska lows in the day 8-10 time frame. Better hope that doesn't happen or its gonna be a Pac Torch.

[high risk]

Saturday looks brutal, with temps in the mid to upper teens and sustained winds in the 20-30mph with higher gusts.

[AlexD1990]

So sick of the cold without snow. This snowcrete shit is for the birds too. I'm actually wishing for a warmup at this point if it's not going to snow. Tired of having to worry about frozen pipes in my old ass house.

[JenkinsJinkies]

6 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

So sick of the cold without snow. This snowcrete shit is for the birds too. I'm actually wishing for a warmup at this point if it's not going to snow. Tired of having to worry about frozen pipes in my old ass house.

Based on what others have said there’s going to be a ridge bridge that should warm us up. For all of three days, and it could be a “warm up” that takes us from arctic to slightly above seasonal.

[snowfan]

Euro is still aggressive with bringing snow into the area Friday afternoon with the push of arctic air. Many get an 1”+. 

[winter_warlock]

5 hours ago, AlexD1990 said:

So sick of the cold without snow. This snowcrete shit is for the birds too. I'm actually wishing for a warmup at this point if it's not going to snow. Tired of having to worry about frozen pipes in my old ass house.

 Slow  Drip ur faucets that should save ur pipes bro 

[snowfan]

Book your tee times, plant those spring bulbs, get the grill ready...

 

[dailylurker]

25 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Book your tee times, plant those spring bulbs, get the grill ready...

 

I can't believe we're not going to stay this cold. I'm shocked theres a warmup after weeks record cold, snowpack, frozen bay. I hope our snowmobile trails hold up. Oh wait. This is Maryland, not the Tug lol. 

[CAPE]

All 3 Ensembles depict a chance for a winter storm mid month. That has looked like the most favorable window for awhile now. The difference compared to now is enough of a pattern change to inhibit significantly below avg cold to make it into our area, so as it looks currently, marginal cold would have to do it along with a favorable storm track and dynamics. That's all stuff that cant be resolved this far out.