February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: Buckle Up!

[RevWarReenactor]

14 minutes ago, somecallmetim said:

I would have loved a blizzard this weekend as much as anyone, but I'm also looking out at epic piles and 6 inches of glacier that's only down one inch in the 6 days it's been around. That's remarkable for here. Not everyone cares about pack though, so to each their own.

We do care about the pack. We want snow on snow. That’s part of the rush  around here. That and usually this type of cold has an expiration date and then it’s back to cutters and rainstorms. The clock is ticking. 

[Heisy]

Reading the room, I'm just guessing there isnt much interest in analysis about the feature that's fucking things up in the upper levels to make it not snow again. But thanks!

Sorry, trust me I’m just as annoyed. Pattern is synoptically really good, we just gotta get a little luck already.

[Heisy]

Down the line western trough/-PNA showing up, if we hold the blocking and run that energy into the cold that’s built up I could see some major mid month storm like we saw with the last event. Hopefully we can avoid any ridge bridging in the east

[somecallmetim]

14 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

We do care about the pack. We want snow on snow. That’s part of the rush  around here. That and usually this type of cold has an expiration date and then it’s back to cutters and rainstorms. The clock is ticking. 

I've been around here for 25 years. Agree this kind of cold usually has an expiration date. Usually it's 24-48 hours.

[wxmeddler]

The last week has felt like when I was living in Fargo, it's been great. 

[Weather Will]

WB latest EPS extended looks great mid February to mid March.

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z 3K NAM: don't travel to Eastern shore looking for snow this weekend.

[87storms]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

WB latest EPS extended looks great mid February to mid March.

Im still waiting on the weeklies to deliver the elusive 4”+ snowstorm that snows from start to finish.

[bncho]

6 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB latest EPS extended looks great mid February to mid March.

I actually like that -PNA. Usually means wetter weather.

[ravensrule]

3 hours ago, TSSN+ said:

My fiance begs to differ 

She has glaucoma?. 

[frd]

18 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB latest EPS extended looks great mid February to mid March.

 

 

PV destruction = self sustaining - NAO = Davis Strait blocking = cold and  in time. 

[Weather Will]

1 minute ago, frd said:

 

 

PV destruction = self sustaining - NAO = Davis Strait blocking = cold and  in time. 

Lot of potential for the last third of winter; now we wait...

[Climate175]

9 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Lot of potential for the last third of winter; now we wait...

Indeed. There is still a good bit of winter left to go. Another decent opportunity could still arise for us. 

[frd]

11 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Lot of potential for the last third of winter; now we wait...

I am getting older by the day 

[Heisy]

It’s the icon so it doesn’t mean a whole lot, but this run would have been pretty nice for mid Atlantic. Confluence relaxed. Let’s start happy hours off right

[mitchnick]

54 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z 3K NAM: don't travel to Eastern shore looking for snow this weekend.

Incredible how far south this has been crushed. 

[stormy]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB latest EPS extended looks great mid February to mid March.

I pray that this EPS verifies. Just what the doctor orders for our drought.

[frd]

[frd]

 

 

 

 

 

[frd]

Weakening vortex 

 

[frd]

Commodity Wx Group@commoditywx

 

 

Tracking next North Pacific stratospheric warming suggests another Alaska ridge spike chance by middle February, similar to what just happened.

 

 

 

 

[bncho]

Lock it in? 

[Ji]

woah

[Heisy]

18z gfs ai, this is almost the perfect mid Atlantic track

[Ji]

and were back.............................till the dr says no

[Ji]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

18z gfs ai, this is almost the perfect mid Atlantic track

we just need the euro

[Amped]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

18z gfs ai, this is almost the perfect mid Atlantic track

Nice hit. Best of all we arent trying to tuck a coastal, just a normal storm moving in from the Ohio Valley.

[Heisy]

Trough slowed down on the OP. Could see improvements on it as well. The Ai showed a stronger system because it was slower and this allowed time for that pesky tpv to clear out

[Buddy1987]

Damn.. that escalated quick. Always nice to get a "whoa" from good ole @Ji