Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/25 - 1/26

[Stormlover74]

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

gfs catching up

Gives 30+ to NC

[BoulderWX]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

There was no snow up here on 12z.

correct, thus me saying big improvement? 

[Jersey_Snowhole]

1 minute ago, BoulderWX said:

correct, thus me saying big improvement? 

5 days out not bad, gfs is playing catch up 

[Franklin0529]

Good to see GFS coming around. 

[psv88]

I dont see Carolina getting 30 inches...someone might, more likely northern Va to central Jersey. That's my target range now. 

[NJwx85]

The phase was just a little late. Need to amplify the flow.

[Franklin0529]

Gonna wait till Thursday to make the decision to head down to family place in Ocean City Maryland. I've done a few chases down there it's great 

[BoulderWX]

1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said:

Gonna wait till Thursday to make the decision to head down to family place in Ocean City Maryland. I've done a few chases down there it's great 

Waiting until then as well - if models stay consistent I’m definitely heading down south!

[SACRUS]

 

GFS Total QPF was only a trace at 12z

 

[SACRUS]

22 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

1/20 18Z Total QPF

ICON: (120H)  in line with 12z
GFS: 0.3 - 0.4
GFS AID: 0.5 - 0.6

 

Updating.
 

[EastonSN+]

Big takeaway is all the models at the current time give some snow to the region.

[Prue11]

Is this looking like a Sunday night into Monday event?

[WeatherGeek2025]

2 minutes ago, Prue11 said:

Is this looking like a Sunday night into Monday event?

early afternoon Sunday should be snowing 2pm or so!

[donsutherland1]

The 1/20 18z GFS showed better phasing as both the northern and southern branches of the jet stream were better aligned. The result is that snowfall got into the New York City area unlike with the 12z GFS. The 12z ECMWF, GGEM, and UKMET continued to show a snowier outcome for New York City. Historical data for 6" or above Washington DC January-February snowstorms also argues strongly against a shutout in the New York City area. Within the next day or two, model skill will improve and confidence in the solutions will increase.

Key factors to be resolved:

1) Jet stream interaction/Degree of phasing
2) Strength and position of Arctic high and confluence

There remains a risk of suppression and/or a sharp cutoff of precipitation on the northern edge of the storm. However, New York City and its suburbs still remain very much in the game for a moderate or significant snowfall, especially when the more skillful guidance is considered. The 1/21 0z runs will provide additional insight.

[Mo Snow]

Been reading these forums for over 10 years but never posted. Found this account today I made back in 2014 and logged in. This is my first post on it haha. 

Excited for this storm!

[Roger Smith]

Pretty sure I recall that guidance for 1-23-2016 was in the 10" range for NYC up until 24-36h before event, it only took a slight northward tick on the track to bring the max snowfall axis north several degrees of latitude. I think there would be a tendency for models to overcook the depth of cold in the air mass arriving over the Great Lakes region Friday-Saturday, I am seeing some thickness values that could easily be 6-12 dm too low, in this case a weakening of the cold air barrier is your friend rather than being a problem.

[WeatherGeek2025]

2 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Pretty sure I recall that guidance for 1-23-2016 was in the 10" range for NYC up until 24-36h before event, it only took a slight northward tick on the track to bring the max snowfall axis north several degrees of latitude. I think there would be a tendency for models to overcook the depth of cold in the air mass arriving over the Great Lakes region Friday-Saturday, I am seeing some thickness values that could easily be 6-12 dm too low, in this case a weakening of the cold air barrier is your friend rather than being a problem.

Nam had us 15-20 range from 84 hours and on and kept depicting that north move every other model caved to it, GFS was last to cave!

[nycwinter]

4 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Pretty sure I recall that guidance for 1-23-2016 was in the 10" range for NYC up until 24-36h before event, it only took a slight northward tick on the track to bring the max snowfall axis north several degrees of latitude. I think there would be a tendency for models to overcook the depth of cold in the air mass arriving over the Great Lakes region Friday-Saturday, I am seeing some thickness values that could easily be 6-12 dm too low, in this case a weakening of the cold air barrier is your friend rather than being a problem.

exactly..

[Nibor]

 

[Winterweatherlover]

40 minutes ago, psv88 said:

I dont see Carolina getting 30 inches...someone might, more likely northern Va to central Jersey. That's my target range now. 

Thats my initial thinking as well, this storm may be too strong to be as far south as depicted on the gfs but may be too cold to jackpot our area. DC-ACY seems like the sweet spot but I do think warning level snows are possible in this sub forum. 

[Winterweatherlover]

31 minutes ago, Prue11 said:

Is this looking like a Sunday night into Monday event?

Probably too early to nail down timeframe exactly but yes probably Sunday night to Monday seems like would be the bulk of it as of now. 

[Stormlover74]

Wonder what Eric Webb thinks

[cleetussnow]

19 minutes ago, Mo Snow said:

Been reading these forums for over 10 years but never posted. Found this account today I made back in 2014 and logged in. This is my first post on it haha. 

Excited for this storm!

Always room for one more.  Welcome.  You are among friends who will troll you anyway.  Lol

[NJwx85]

You can see here how the timing is slightly off and instead of a consolidated trough, it gets elongated, weakens, and gets kicked East at the last momiute. Still positive trends.

[Prue11]

The 12z trended a bit warmer I wonder if that will have any influence on how north the storm

come?

[Yanksfan]

GEFS look great. North of the Op.

[MJO812]

16 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Wonder what Eric Webb thinks

He thinks I am a weenie.

[MJO812]

Euro looks more amplified at 102

[SnoSki14]

4 minutes ago, Yanksfan said:

GEFS look great. North of the Op.

Good sign that those have continued to improve. Someone loop the last 4-5 runs of it and the difference becomes abundantly clear. 

[Stormlover74]

Euro looks like its going to be a big hit. Also comes in earlier