Major snowstorm 1/15-16

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Just keep deepening it and good things happen. 

We know how Ginx loves his H5 anomalies. 

[CoastalWx]

There will probably be a decent stripe or snow well north in NNE north of the slow moving front. 
 

 

[The 4 Seasons]

Such stark differences at 500 with only a 114hr lead. The GEM is on a whole nother planet and hasn't wavered, same with ICON...though that thing sucks usually the GEM is at least in the conversation. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro AI is a non event 

I feel like it’s been pretty good at this range. Think that is the likely outcome 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

19 minutes ago, weathafella said:

You’re so misguided about the AI Euro.  To me in the medium range it’s the default strongest weight.

Yup. It’s been pretty good. People tossing because it’s not snowy 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I feel like it’s been pretty good at this range. Think that is the likely outcome 

I don’t buy a non event like that. At least yet. 

[CoastalWx]

Euro AI went from a non event to bullish yesterday to a non event again. Not really that stable.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yup. It’s been pretty good. People tossing because it’s not snowy 

Sounds like what everyone does with every model that has no snow in their BY.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I feel like it’s been pretty good at this range. Think that is the likely outcome 

You’ll get snow. Trust.

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro AI went from a non event to bullish yesterday to a non event again. Not really that stable.

 

[ORH_wxman]

EPS has a decent number of members that are warning snow for a chunk of SNE. Lot of spread of course. 

[dryslot]

This is one of these systems that's going to be off and on until your inside 4 days or so to know where its going, Lot going on aloft.

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

This is one of these systems that's going to be off and on until your inside 4 days or so to know where its going, Lot going on aloft.

Totally agree. Just need to avoid too much backsliding in the meantime.

[Ginx snewx]

29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Just keep deepening it and good things happen. 

Thats exactly my point. Scooter be damned

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Totally agree. Just need to avoid too much backsliding in the meantime.

There is a lot of spread on the EPS for the 15-16th.

[8611Blizz]

This just in from skynet to SNE... 

[dendrite]

 

37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We know how Ginx loves his H5 anomalies. 

Hopefully this blows up offshore and we get some epic vis images.

[UnitedWx]

43 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yup. It’s been pretty good. People tossing because it’s not snowy 

Not at all! Personally I nearly couldn't care less if it snows or not, this is not my only hobby. Sorry, I just can't stand AI anything. To this point I've seen it cause far more problems than it's helped solve, and that's likely to only get worse

[qg_omega]

57 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Such stark differences at 500 with only a 114hr lead. The GEM is on a whole nother planet and hasn't wavered, same with ICON...though that thing sucks usually the GEM is at least in the conversation. 

It’s a cold front

[The 4 Seasons]

5 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

It’s a cold front

2 left today, use em wisely

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

44 minutes ago, dendrite said:

 

Hopefully this blows up offshore and we get some epic vis images.

I still get goosebumps at the satellite images of all the storms that have missed us over the last decade and blown up in Atlantic Canada. Breathtaking 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Just keep deepening it and good things happen. 

Define "good"....like Scott said, it simply doesn't matter here as much as it would under different circumstances. The floor is SUCKS and the ceiling is sucks.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

It doesn’t hurt Brett..I honestly dont know what you’re trying to accomplish?  It’s weather. It doesn’t alway do what we want, or hope for.  And if you’re insisting that it’s flying by, we still have much more in front of us, than behind us.  But whatever…it guess it doesn’t matter when one has your outlook on things. 
 

It’s snowing heavily in N. Maine currently, and they are under a winter storm warning.  I’ll be heading up north end of the week, so it’s all good for me in that regard. Enjoy whatever happens with this. 

You're making his point...you are getting TFO of here, so "it's all good" for you....

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

GEFS looks pretty threatening for SE areas and cape. 

Yea, hopefully the ULL keeps trending deeper and more closed so Hyannis can do better.

[WinterWolf]

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You're making his point...you are getting TFO of here, so "it's all good" for you....

Nah,  I guess it just doesn’t matter as much to me as it used too.   

[Ginx snewx]

37 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, hopefully the ULL keeps trending deeper and more closed so Hyannis can do better.

Some day you will live in  place where it snows everyday and you won't have time to whine about snow that hasn't happened yet.

[dendrite]

Ray is teetering on the edge. 

I can feel it coming in the air tonight. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

 

[Typhoon Tip]

The problems in all guidance could not be any more glaringly obvious ... 

It's all exceptionally highly sensitive to wave spacing issues.  Sorry to keep hitting this aspect; I'm not seeing many of you writing about it.  

The diving "2nd wave" is bullying into the trough, imparting a polar oriented correction vector to the flow - trying to lift it up;  that is directly opposing/offsetting the ability for the lead wave space to intrinsically dig/maintain amplitude. 

done deal.   game over.  

that all has to iron itself out such that:

a,  one or the other becomes dominant

or 

b, neither will be very significant.    

or 

c, some minoring event transpires perhaps out of both -... but in this case, the 2nd is a wild card.  

And Scott's right big time.  The baroclinic axis is getting swept seaward and is not recovering in some of these guidance.  That was magnificently spelled out in the 00z GFS, which showed an explosion of squally -linear convection out over the outer g-string, gobbling up al the moisture dynamics and running away with it.  There's no other way in nature to demonstrate that without y'all learning Navier-Stokes

[CoastalWx]

18z gfs may deliver