Nov 28-30th Post Turkey Day Wintry Potential

[King James]

Nice work. Caveat on the COOP "accuracy" for sure. Some sketchy measurements in past years. Regardless, this is definitely a November for the books around here, assuming this storm acts as expected. With that said, gonna narrow my range a bit and go 6-8" final call for here. General consensus QPF numbers in the 0.60-0.80" range, ratios pretty close to 10:1, etc etc. Going to be a fun day to work tomorrow.  

Already gave my call but I think we are going to be in the sweet spot back to back storms. 11.2 inches for MBY is my final final call. Enjoy the storm!

[Chicago WX]

1 minute ago, King James said:

Already gave my call but I think we are going to be in the sweet spot back to back storms. 11.2 inches for MBY is my final final call. Enjoy the storm!

Man, I hope you're right. What's crazy is you've got a good chance pull a 20" month (at least)...in November. Awesome start to the season.

[Baum]

3 hours ago, jlauderdal said:

Upping my 7.5 Downers Grove prediction to 9 just for Baum who is right down the road.   We got this Baum, 9 and a decent possibility of overachieving. Just have to watch the euro, its not giving up on the more northerly route of the low and Euro AI has the low a tick farther north than the Euro OP.  

Here’s hoping you’re spot on. I’ll be at Wannemakers in DG first thing this AM getting the Christmas garland. Off the roads tomorrow. 

[cyclone77]

Starting to look like 10+ is looking pretty likely now for the QC.  Models that seemed to be backing down to reality a few days ago miraculously reversed course.  It's always nice to see CAMs and global models both agreeing on big dog totals on every model cycle.

[jlauderdal]

Here’s hoping you’re spot on. I’ll be at Wannemakers in DG first thing this AM getting the Christmas garland. Off the roads tomorrow. 

I'm in Tampa on a layover, ORD this afternoon and then hunker down. We need Saturday afternoon to deliver an inch an hour to get us 9+. If we can get 3 by noon .5/hr for 6 hours we will be in good shape.

[A-L-E-K]

On 11/26/2025 at 4:44 AM, A-L-E-K said:

4.5 final call

Looking two or three inches low imby but not terrible, congrats to the qc and ia crew, lots of our regulars should jackpot

[TheNiño]

Going with 6 fully erect IMBY final call. Even 3in would bring me to a foot here before December. 

[Chambana]

21 hours ago, Chambana said:

4.6” final call. Chicagoland looks locked and loaded for a solid 6-9” event

Calling looking $

[Weather Mike]

59 minutes ago, jlauderdal said:

1 hour ago, Baum said:

Here’s hoping you’re spot on. I’ll be at Wannemakers in DG first thing this AM getting the Christmas garland. Off the roads tomorrow. 

I'm in Tampa on a layover, ORD this afternoon and then hunker down. We need Saturday afternoon to deliver an inch an hour to get us 9+. If we can get 3 by noon .5/hr for 6 hours we will be in good shape.

Funny I am in Miami waiting to fly to ORD. Can’t wait for some snow on Saturday in Chitown. Good luck to everyone and today’s model runs ! 

[OrdIowPitMsp]

NWS feeling a lot more bullish than I am in Minneapolis. I think 1-2” is a reasonable call, they seem to think 2-5”. 
 

Either way, glad to see a deep freeze behind the snow. Get those lakes frozen already!

[hawkeye_wx]

The CAMs were already holding steady with the high-end snow totals and now the lower models are coming up.  This is looking like maybe a 10" floor for my area.

[A-L-E-K]

8 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The CAMs were already holding steady with the high-end snow totals and now the lower models are coming up.  This is looking like maybe a 10" floor for my area.

This is your moment 

[Brian D]

Glad to see some good snowstorm action for you guys down there early in the season. Usually it's us N guys that see all the action this time of year, except for some LES events. 

[Radtechwxman]

I wish I was bit more north for this one. Still worried about mixing here. Definitely going to miss the jackpot zone but still could get a solid hit. But man it's been forever since we had double digits here. 

[A-L-E-K]

Gotta give props to the quality of this antecedent airmass, dry and cold surfaces will be a refreshing change of pace from watching white rain fall into puddles

[Sciascia]

Happy Black Friday to those that celebrate with their wallets!

Here’s just a brief run-down of Kuch maps from recent model runs: 12z HRRR, 12z 4K NAM, and 6z Euro.

[homedis]

Interesting signal on the HRRR for some lake enh in far SE WI and Lake County IL. A limiting factor of that would be 1:6-1:8 ratios with the warmer air.

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Starting to look like 10+ is looking pretty likely now for the QC.  Models that seemed to be backing down to reality a few days ago miraculously reversed course.  It's always nice to see CAMs and global models both agreeing on big dog totals on every model cycle.

MLI will exceed its 2024-25 total in 2025-26 before December.

Thinking 4-6" here. Hoping the dryslot/potential end as rain in sunday morning isn't too bad. 

[fluoronium]

49 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said:

I wish I was bit more north for this one. Still worried about mixing here. Definitely going to miss the jackpot zone but still could get a solid hit. But man it's been forever since we had double digits here. 

I worry about mixing too. Winds will have a southerly component here for the whole event and the low tracks to our NW. Even in January, that gives a rainer almost every time. We should at least get a good hit near the start though. 

[DocATL]

Naperville eclipsing last season’s snow totals before this winter has officially even started has all the feels.

[CheeselandSkies]

Looks like Madison is actually riding the north edge of the double digit totals. NAM has gradually come down a bit, from 12.8" to about 10.8" However points in far southern Wisconsin such as Janesville still get in on 12-13."

[nvck]

Looking less likely we'll get much of anything down here in s Ohio, although the GFS and nam are stubbornly holding onto a couple inches before some rain. Looking forward to seeing 6-8 on the ground headed back north, tho. 

[CheeselandSkies]

I think you have to go all the way back to 2009 for the last true big dog (double digit totals) prior to December 10th in my memory. That one surely had some compaction involved, because it was low-ratio library paste, yet still flirted with or exceeded a foot in most parts of southern Wisconsin.

[IWXwx]

@Jackstraw Euro is doin' its thing to us.

[SchaumburgStormer]

We are so due for an overperformer. Going 11.7” imby 

[Geoboy645]

22 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

I think you have to go all the way back to 2009 for the last true big dog (double digit totals) prior to December 10th in my memory. That one surely had some compaction involved, because it was low-ratio library paste, yet still flirted with or exceeded a foot in most parts of southern Wisconsin.

Correct. In fact, from what I can tell this might be the first double digit storm before January 1st since the second storm of the December 2016 sequence, if not 12/20/12. Which is insane to say the least.

[RemoteSenses]

Oh hey…this is where all my Great Lakes people are at? I’ve been over on WXSphere for the last few years but it’s mostly OV people! Looking forward to this one to start the season.

[jlauderdal]

We are so due for an overperformer. Going 11.7” imby 

I like the aggressiveness, 11.7 Schaumburg would mean a big win for Downers Grove, bring it. 11.7 48 hours ago would have been a big stretch but here we are with a decent chance of hitting that number.

[Sciascia]

33 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

We are so due for an overperformer. Going 11.7” imby 

ready 2 b buried

[Malacka11]

Wild how nonchalantly we stumbled into maps like this. Like Alek mentioned, the decent antecedent conditions for once is cool and something I'd willingly accept in lieu of better ratios later on.